Labor insiders are despairing: Albo is heading for election failure. And they say he must silence a VERY senior minister if he has any chance of beating Dutton: PETER VAN ONSELEN

There is growing despondency in Labor circles about the government’s performance, especially the poor performance of the prime minister.

To be sure, it is hard to get too excited about much this government has achieved in its first term. The missteps and failures have been obvious, starting with the ill-fated Voice referendum.

That was when the shine came right off Anthony Albanese.

But there remains a clear pathway to victory for Labor, as long as the PM can find his mojo and his colleagues can stick to some rather simple and easy key messages. Without sounding like they are reciting political lines, of course.

Modern politicians aren’t great at sounding authentic at the best of times, but in order to win, this government needs to spruik four central messages while simultaneously acknowledging that people out there are doing it tough. A difficult task, but possible.

Labor needs to point out that it has put in place new laws protecting workers’ pay, delivered two surpluses in its first two budgets, significantly lowered inflation without cutting payments Australians rely on, and has delivered fairer income tax cuts than the previous government proposed.

In this column, I have previously pointed out the flaws with some of the above points:

• The labour laws are stifling businesses at a time when the economy is struggling.
• The surpluses are merely a consequence of higher commodity prices and are coming to an end in next year’s budget anyway.
• While inflation has fallen, it has come down more slowly than elsewhere in the world, which is why our interest rates remain too high.
• And, yes, the changes to Scott Morrison’s stage-three tax cuts do distribute the cuts more broadly – but Labor broke a clear election promise when making the shift, meaning it can no longer be trusted.

Redbridge research predicts Peter Dutton is more likely forming minority government than Albo

However, these nuanced criticisms of Labor’s best sales pitch don’t take away from the fact that repeating these four ‘achievements’ consistently throughout a campaign is still the government’s best chance of securing a second term.

In fact, it might be Albo’s only chance. Because without making this simple case for re-election, his government is drifting into history-making territory for all the wrong reasons.

It could become the first first-term government to lose re-election since 1931. That is how bad things are looking right now.

Labor MPs are finding it increasingly difficult not to whinge about where things are at, especially Albo’s inability to turn the situation around.

For months now, Labor’s party room has been told to be patient because the building blocks for a comeback were in place.

The claims are starting to sound hollow unless the PM and his team can get back to basics and stop letting themselves be distracted by issues that don’t relate to mainstream Australia. 

Israel, for example.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong really does need to be sent on a very, very long and very, very far away overseas trip between now and the next election.

The PM and his team must get back to basics and stop letting themselves be distracted by issues that don’t relate to mainstream Australia, such as Israel. Foreign Minister Penny Wong, in particular, must do her part by avoiding making stupid public remarks about the Jewish state

Her recent comments comparing the democratic state of Israel to totalitarian China and Russia were, at worst, appalling, and, at best, stupid beyond belief.

Look at where Labor now finds itself: a primary vote of just 27 per cent, according to the Resolve poll, is appalling. 

Redbridge research predicts that a hung parliament is now a 98 per cent certainty after the next election, going as far as to claim there is a greater chance of Peter Dutton forming minority government than Albo.

So Labor needs to change its approach and simplify its messaging to the four points stated above. With the election just months away, time is running out for the government.

Workers would appreciate labour laws protecting their pay, if they are made aware of them. Selling protecting pay shouldn’t be hard.

Handing down two surpluses is a sales pitch that’s capable of cutting through after so many years of promises to achieve a surplus by both major parties that never eventuated.

Remember the Coalition’s ‘back in black’ campaign ahead of a surplus promised but not delivered during Morrison’s last term?

Even if Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ pair of surpluses were commodities-driven, they were still real and could easily be sold as evidence of sound economic management. Any advertising agency would be able to amplify that achievement.

Australians know inflation is lower now than it was when Morrison lost in 2022, and they know the tax cuts Labor changed are now more broadly ‘fair’. They just need reminding of these facts by narrowing the political messages down.

The PM and his senior colleagues need to repeat this sales pitch until they are sick of hearing it. Former NSW premier Neville Wran used to say it is only at that point in time that voters are finally starting to pay attention.

And they must cut out the distractions, including Albo’s regular missteps projecting an image he is out-of-touch and bound for retirement.

He needs the public to believe he has done a reasonable job so far, with plans to do more good work if he gets a second term.

It’s not enough to just demonise Dutton. Not now that he’s neck-and-neck in the preferred-PM ratings and the Coalition are ahead or even on the two-party vote.

Selling policies such as cutting people’s HECS debts or pumping more taxpayers’ money into childcare leave those not receiving such largesse questioning what this government has done for them.

The four-point plan outlined above caters to most voters, and it gives them an excuse not to change the way they voted at the last election.

Let’s see if Labor has the campaign skills to pull it off.