While all the talk ahead of the Melbourne Cup will be about form, barriers, heavy and light weights, and international raiders, it’s not all to consider when picking a winner.
Just like humans, how horses handle the pressure on the big stage can have a major impact on how they perform when the gates open and the race itself begins.
And according to racing experts in the final few minutes before the horses jump for their chance at Melbourne Cup glory, there’s some very key things to look for on TV.
Experts have given their tips on what to look for in the final minutes before a race to help you pick a winner on Melbourne Cup day (2016 race pictured)
Racing expert Francesca Cumani (pictured) assesses horses in the mounting yard pre-race
According to the experts at Racing.com, the ‘body language’ of a horse as it stands around in the mounting yard is vital.
If a horses ears are pricked and it trots confidently around the ring, that’s a sure sign it is ready for a big performance.
But while confidence is key, just like humans it’s important not to overstep the line.
‘At the same time, the horse should be calm; not spooked or restless, because they need to obey his/her jockey,’ the experts say.
‘If a horse goes too hard too soon, it may tire early.’
This is particularly key for horses running over longer distances such as 3200 metres in the Melbourne Cup, with a major part of the race being able to ‘stay the distance’.
Needing to take long strides to cover the ground in the race, it’s a good sign if they are also doing this in the mounting yard experts say.
‘Look for long legs taking big strides… a stayer will cover more ground than sprinters who take short, more effective strides,’ the racing expert claims.
But despite being the day’s feature race and having more than $1 billion bet on it, the Melbourne Cup isn’t the only race on Tuesday at Flemington.
Studying the form guide before the Melbourne Cup isn’t the only way to pick a winner, with the ‘body language’ of runners equally important
Those keen to make some dollars early can punt on nine other races either side of ‘the race that stops a nation’.
With distances ranging from 1000 metres up to 3200 metres in The Cup, each race requires looking for a number of different things.
Sprinters running between 1000m to 1400m are often small and powerful, which is clear through their hindquarters.
Picking a horse with a muscular and bulky frame, with a shape similar to an apple is a good bet.
Horses running over middle distances of 1400m to 2040m should appear to be in the middle of sprinters and staying horses.
Legendary owner Lloyd Williams poses with his 2016 Melbourne Cup winner Almandin. He has six runners in Tuesday’s race
Equine physiotherapist Tom Simpson (pictured) listed temperament, fitness and condition, action and coat as factors to look for in a horse before it races
‘The first thing you’re looking for is a broad chest with substantial girth, indicating remarkable lung capacity,’ experts say.
A smaller but still solid hindquarter and powerful thighs are also vital.
Equine physiotherapist Tom Simpson has worked with Australia’s top racing stables and some of the best thoroughbreds in the world and agrees the mounting yard is key.
‘Look at temperament – whether he’s got his game day face on. More often than not you want a nice, relaxed horse,’ Mr Simpson said.
‘You want to avoid horses that are slathering in sweat and running around controlling their handler.
‘The health of the coat and the fitness of the individual go hand in hand. That is quite reflective of how the horse is feeling and its general well-being.’
Rachael Finch is pictured posing with the Melbourne Cup during the Carnival Launch last Tuesday
The Cup will attract a crowd of more than 100,000 to Flemington and hundreds of millions of viewers in 163 territories on television and online, according to the Victoria Racing Club
A horse’s condition is just as important: ‘Definition and muscle tone are key things that go into that,’ Mr Simpson said.
‘You basically want to rule out a lack of fitness. You don’t want a really fat, roly poly kind of horse. At this level they’re all going to be pretty well spot-on.
‘You want to see the horse is peaking for that run. That’s the biggest thing – is it ready for that race? And then their action, the way they’re walking. You want them walking out nice and even.
‘Make sure the feet are stepping symmetrically, front and behind. Otherwise it might indicate an area of soreness which might impact negatively on their racing.’
Mr Simpson said horses competing in staying races such as the 3200 metre Cup should be more relaxed than those running in sprints, typically 1000 to 1200 metres.
THE BOOKIES’ TOP PICKS
A punter studies the form guide at a previous Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting
Jared Timms – Neds Bookmakers
#1 Red Cardinal
There are several reasons why Red Cardinal looms as a potential Melbourne Cup winner. He is trained by Andreas Wohler, who prepared Protectionist to win the Melbourne Cup in 2014. This horse has only had three starts in 2017 and his form has been outstanding – He’s won two races at the two-mile distance of the Melbourne Cup in Germany and the United States.
Track conditions vary greatly in those two countries, so that suggests that Red Cardinal is capable of adapting to his surroundings extremely well. He’ll be ridden by 2016 Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy, who is in a rare vein of form himself and who has experienced plenty of top-level success already this spring. With the appropriate luck in running, Red Cardinal will be extremely difficult to beat and boasts great odds.
#2 Humidor
Humidor gave Winx the biggest scare of her undefeated streak in the Cox Plate and I simply cannot ignore that run. Humidor tends to improve with a lot of racing under his belt and he will contest the Melbourne Cup as seventh point-of-call since August.
The big question mark hovers over whether or not he will race well at two miles – a distance he is yet to see, but his breeding, particularly on his maternal side generally produces horses that perform well at longer trips. Humidor’s ability to settle in running and his trademark late sprint suggests that he can be right in the finish of the Melbourne Cup.
#3 Marmelo
Marmelo is a horse that has performed extremely well in big European races this year and is also proven at the distance of the Melbourne Cup – perhaps the most important form indicator for the race. Marmelo was faced with a wall of horses when he rounded onto the final straight in the Caulfield Cup, but he flew home after finding clear running and showed all the signs of a horse that will be much better at a longer distance.
As horses progress further into their campaigns, they tend to improve and I am expecting Marmelo to carry the most improvement into the Melbourne Cup. The Flemington track is big and wide and that should suit this horse’s running style, while champion jockey Hugh Bowman is a big bonus to any horse’s chances and Marmelo will have that luxury on Tuesday afternoon.
#4 Tiberian
French horse Tiberian is gunning for a third-consecutive race win when he takes his place in the Melbourne Cup field. Tiberian is a horse that simply does not know how to run a bad race and he was strong to the line in two talent-rich races in France, both contested at 2500m in August. This is a horse that is yet to step out to 3200m this season, but he has performed well at the distance previously and there is nothing to say that he won’t again in the Melbourne Cup.
Tiberian has been ridden by Olivier Peslier in each of his five races this year and the French jockey will fly to Australia to take the ride again; a sign that the horse’s camp is confident that he will run well and perhaps even win the Melbourne Cup. I think that he is over the odds at $31 and well and truly worth consideration at that price, as an each-way option.
Thomas Hackett – Ladbrokes
#1 Marmelo
His form in Europe is nothing short of outstanding and he won the Prix Kergorlay in France, which has been a strong form reference for the Melbourne Cup in the past.
He ran the best closing sectionals in the Caulfield Cup and will be better suited over 3200 metres and he has the benefit of Hugh Bowman in the saddle.
#2 Wall Of Fire
He made his Australian racing debut with a fast-finishing second in the Herbert Power Stakes and the form coming out of that race has been strong. He has the turn-of-foot at the end of a strong staying test that is good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.
#3 Big Duke
He has been racing extremely well this preparation and is from the stable of master trainer Darren Weir. He did not have a great deal of luck when he was beaten in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last start. Has a similar profile to 2015 Melbourne Cup winner Prince Of Penzance
#4 Tiberian
Owners Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock almost won the Melbourne Cup with Heartbreak City 12 months ago. He heads to Australia on the back of a career best performance in the Grand Prix Deauville in France. He will have no problems running out a strong 3200 metres.