Joe Biden has inched to a 0.4% per cent lead in Michigan, with 94 per cent of the votes counted in the Rust Belt state – potentially damaging President Trump’s hopes of a second term.
Michigan is expected to declare an election result at some point today as vote counting runs long amid an influx of mail-in ballots.
There are thousands of ballots still to be counted – mostly mail-in ballots from Democrat strongholds including Detroit.
That raises the prospect that Biden will strengthen his lead and secure the state along with its vital 16 electoral college votes.
It came despite Trump claiming overnight that he’d won the entire election, labeling it a ‘fraud’ that he didn’t yet have enough electoral college votes and vowing to go to the Supreme Court to challenge it.
Detroit, the state’s biggest city and a hub of Democratic voters, has experienced record levels of turnout, local officials said – which is a good sign for Biden.
Turnout in Motor City, where Biden campaigned with Barack Obama on Friday, is expected to hit 55 per cent – up seven points on 2016.
The record number of votes means full results will be known Wednesday, City Clerk Janice Winfrey announced Tuesday night.
Statewide, 3.3 million absentee ballots had been cast, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said, but results will take time.
‘We’re on track to be in a position to potentially see a full result of every tabulation in the next 24 hours,’ she announced.
Trump won the state by taking the suburbs – the Macomb and Monroe counties outside of Detroit – but he also won working-class areas in like Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, which has many white working-class voters.
Ballots are counted through the night at the TCF Center in Detroit, a key area for Democrats
Biden has concentrated on winning African American voters in the state in urban areas like Flint.
Michigan is among a handful of battleground states where Trump prematurely claimed early Wednesday he was ‘winning’ the contest with Biden.
Both are locked in a tight race for the 270 electors needed to win the presidency.
‘We’re winning Michigan by – I’ll tell you, I looked at the numbers,’ Trump said during an appearance at the White House, where he promised to contest the election before the Supreme Court.
More than 5.26 million votes have been cast in Michigan and many of the ballots left to be counted were submitted by mail, a way of voting that favors Biden. Of those, a significant number were from Wayne County, home to heavily Democratic Detroit.
How Biden or Trump could both still win fair and square TODAY without election ending up in court
Donald Trump and Joe Biden have plausible paths to claiming victory in the White House race on Wednesday without going to court.
But they depend on a series of factors falling into place.
As of 5 am Joe Biden was on 238 Electoral College votes and Donald Trump on 213.
Undecided were Nevada – widely expected to break for Biden – and Alaska, seen as safely in Trump’s column.
That would put them on 244 and 216.
But undecided are Georgia (16 votes), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), a single vote from Maine’s undeclared Congressional district and the big prize of Pennsylvania with 20 votes.
Numerically, Biden has the easier path: he needs 26 votes to get to 270, while Trump needs 58.
That means he could eke out a win on Wednesday – but only if results come in his favor.
Trump’s path on Wednesday seems less likely, because he needs to get more states into his column.
And the one clear fact is that Pennsylvania’s count will not be over until Friday, which means that every attempt to settle it before then is fraught for both men.
SCENARIO ONE: MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN GO FOR BIDEN
This is the ending to the election which involves the fewest states and could break most rapidly.
Combined the two mid-western states have 26 votes. That would put Joe Biden on the vital 270 figure.
Wisconsin’s results could come as early as 9am Wednesday.
Michigan’s results are less clear but the Secretary of State said Tuesday that she hopes to provide ‘a very clear picture, if not a final picture’ by Wednesday night.
Poll workers process absentee ballots the night of Election Day at Milwaukee Central Count
Detroit, the state’s biggest city and a hub of Democratic voters, won’t have its results known until sometime Wednesday as it experiences record levels of turnout, a good sign for Biden.
Turnout in Motor City, where Biden campaigned with Barack Obama on Friday, is expected to hit 55 per cent – that’s up seven points over the 48 per cent who voted in 2016.
The record number of votes means full results will be known Wednesday, City Clerk Janice Winfrey announced Tuesday night.
Statewide, 3.3 million absentee ballots had been cast, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said, but results will take time.
‘We’re on track to be in a position to potentially see a full result of every tabulation in the next 24 hours,’ she announced.
Trump won the state by taking the suburbs – the Macomb and Monroe counties outside of Detroit – but he also won working-class areas in like Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, which has many white working-class voters.
Biden has concentrated on winning African American voters in the state in urban areas like Flint.
If that tactic eventually pays off there could be a victory for Biden declared rapidly – on Wednesday night.
But the state governor Gretchen Whitmer has also warned that results could take days more.
SCENARIO TWO: TRUMP GETS GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA AND MICHIGAN
This scenario sees Trump gain the upper hand in the south.
If the southern states reports clear results on Wednesday and go for Trump, he would climb to 247, putting him in touching distance of 270 – if he can gain Michigan.
Gaining Wisconsin alone is pointless in this scenario. Its 10 votes only take him to 257.
However Michigan’s would put him on 273 – a victory.
Georgia Secretary of State has said he expected Georgia to have all its results on Wednesday.
Trump was narrowly ahead of Biden by 5am but with a substantial number of votes still to be counted from Atlanta where poll workers went home to rest.
But North Carolina’s results are in greater doubt. Trump was ahead as of 5am, 50.1% to 48.7%, with 95% of the vote reported.
On its own that seems to make the scenario unlikely for Biden.
But mail-in ballots postmarked by Tuesday will be accepted until November 12.
SCENARIO THREE: BIDEN TAKES THE SOUTH
This appears the least likely scenario given that North Carolina is trending slightly towards Trump.
But if Joe Biden takes Georgia and North Carolina, that would get him a total of 31 votes. That puts him on 275.
Georgia Secretary of State has said he expected Georgia to have all its results on Wednesday.
Trump was narrowly ahead of Biden by 5am but with a substantial number of votes still to be counted from Atlanta where poll workers went home to rest.
But North Carolina’s results are in greater doubt. Trump was ahead as of 5am, 50.1% to 48.7%, with 95% of the vote reported.
On its own that seems to make the scenario unlikely for Biden.
But mail-in ballots postmarked by Tuesday will be accepted until November 12.
If mail-in ballots skew Democratic, that may make it impossible to know the outcome before November 12 even if it is in Biden’s favor.
SCENARIO FOUR: TRUMP TAKES THE SOUTH AND MICHIGAN
If Trump takes Georgia and North Carolina, he moves up to 247.
That puts him in touching distance if he can also win Michigan, whose 16 votes take him to 273.
SCENARIO FIVE: IT’S ALL ABOUT PENNSYLVANIA SO THERE WILL BE NO RESULT ON WEDNESDAY
Pennsylvania’s results probably won’t be known until Friday.
But its 20 electoral college votes would offer a clear path to victory for whoever gets them.
If Biden takes the 20, he needs to pick up any one of the other states to get over 270.
For Trump the path is trickier but Pennsylvania would undoubtedly help.
With 226 votes secured, he could then win with the two southern states and Michigan – leaving Wisconsin untouched.
But Pennsylvania is the most challenging state for both parties because of the huge uncertainties which surround its votes.
Compounding the problem are lawsuits expected over disputed ballots, which could drag out the results of the election even longer. Republicans have made it clear they will sue when and where they see necessary.
In Pennsylvania, state law forbids officials from counting mail-in ballots until Election Day. Additionally, the Supreme Court allowed the state to count ballots for three days after Nov. 3 so long as they are postmarked by Election Day.
Only 25 per cent of the early votes have been counted.
In Philadelphia officials said around 350,000 votes were cast, but only 76,000 were tallied during the day Tuesday. The rest won’t be counted until Wednesday.
Election officials begin counting ballots Tuesday night in York County, Pennsylvania, where mail-in ballots cannot be counted until Election Day
‘The counties are working really hard to get [the results] in as soon as possible,’ Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said Tuesday. ‘It’s going to take time.’
Biden’s biggest strongholds in the Keystone State are in Philadelphia and then Pittsburgh – where he and VP nominee Kamala Harris held rallies with Lady Gaga and John Legend Monday night.
Philadelphia in particular is a Democratic stronghold with more than 1.1 million registered voters, which is more than 10 per cent of all the voters in the state.
But Trump has campaigned heavily in the state – he held four rallies there on Saturday alone – and wants to repeat his stunning 2016 win there.
Election workers in Luzerne County, a northeastern county near Scranton, stopped counting mail-in ballots on Tuesday evening and will resume Wednesday, according to county manager David Pedri. He said the county had counted about 26,000 mail-in ballots of the about 60,000 cast.
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, on Tuesday called on residents to remain calm and patient as they await results.
In a brief one-and-a-half-minute video, he urged Pennsylvanians to ‘take a breath.’
‘Across the state, dedicated county workers are ready to tirelessly make sure everyone’s vote counts,’ the Pennsylvania governor said. ‘But counting that tremendous number of ballots will take more time than we are used to.’
‘We may not know the results today,’ he acknowledged, ‘but I encourage all of us to take a deep breath and be patient.’
‘What is most important is that we have accurate results – even if that takes a little longer,’ Wolf added.
Pennsylvania saw about 2.5 million of its 9 million registered voters request absentee ballots. As of Tuesday morning, 81 per cent of them had been returned.
Any ballot post marked by Election Day and received by November 6 will be counted.