Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party could win up to 366 seats at the general election according to a major new poll which suggests the Labour Party could end up with just 199 MPs
- New poll analysis for Best for Britain group predicts Tory win with up to 366 MPs
- That would give Boris Johnson an overall majority of approximately 92 seats
- Jeremy Corbyn and Labour would end up with just 199 seats in such a scenario
- But poll suggests Tory majority on a knife edge due to number of marginal seats
- Pro-EU group used data to pick 57 seats where Remainers could scupper Tories
Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party are on course to win up to 366 seats at the general election on December 12, according to a massive new piece of polling analysis.
A major new piece of work conducted for the Best for Britain pro-EU campaign group suggests the Tories could end up with a majority of approximately 92.
It also suggests Jeremy Corbyn could finish with just 199 seats – a number which would be even lower than Labour’s disastrous result under Michael Foot in 1983 when the party finished with just 209 MPs.
Such a result would represent a huge victory for Mr Johnson and provide him with the stable foundations necessary to implement his Brexit deal and deliver his manifesto pledges.
But the data also suggests that the result on polling day remains on a knife-edge with Mr Johnson’s hopes pinned on holding and gaining seats in increasingly marginal areas.
As a result, Best for Britain has identified 57 seats where it believes pro-EU voters could make the biggest difference and potentially scupper a Tory majority through tactical voting.
A new piece of polling analysis for the Best for Britain group suggests Boris Johnson, pictured on the campaign trail in Cornwall, could end up with 366 MPs
In such a scenario Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party would finish with just 199 seats
The Best for Britain data suggests that tactical voting could play a major role in the outcome on December 12
The polling analysis was conducted by Focaldata and is based on a sample size of almost 40,000 British adults.
It is the first poll analysis to adjust for the impact of the Brexit Party not standing candidates in 317 Tory-held constituencies.
The predicted Tory figure of 366 MPs is based on the Conservatives having received the support of roughly three-quarters of the Brexit Party’s vote share in areas abandoned by Mr Farage.
In this scenario, Labour would win just 199 seats while the Lib Dems would also go backwards, finishing with 17 seats.
Meanwhile, the SNP would win 44 seats, Plaid Cymru would win four and the Greens would win one.
Labour won 262 seats at the general election in 2017 and if the party was to drop to 199 MPs it would represent an unmitigated disaster for Mr Corbyn.
The Lib Dems won 12 seats in 2017 but the party’s MPs numbers swelled in recent months to 20 after a series of defections from other parties.
The numbers seemingly paint a gloomy picture for the Remain-backing parties in the UK.
But Best for Britain said the statistics show that if 4,000 or less pro-EU voters use their vote tactically in the 57 seats identified by the group then the Tories could be dragged back to just 309 seats.
That would leave Mr Johnson a dozen seats short of a working majority.
In the tactical voting scenario, Labour would win 244 seats, the SNP would win 52 seats, the Lib Dems would win 21 seats, Plaid would win four seats and the Greens would win one seat.
Best for Britain estimates that the election could be swung against the Conservatives by as few as 117,314 pro-EU voters using their vote tactically.