One imagines that had Masterchef’s Gregg Wallace replaced Gary Lineker as Match of the Day host if the BBC row played out differently in this alternate reality, he’d know just how to introduce the key relegation battles: ‘Survival, Wrighty, does not get tighter than this.’
Four points separate the bottom nine Premier League clubs, from Crystal Palace in 12th to Southampton at the foot of the table. It’s never been this close. No one cut adrift, no one pulling away.
Six have changed manager along the way. Fans of Leicester City and West Ham wish theirs would. A single result causes chaos. Leeds beat Wolves and jumped from 19th to 14th. West Ham dropped into the bottom three.
Never has the phrase ‘six-pointer’ been less of a cliche and more a way of life for nearly half the Premier League. So much can change, so much will change, as we find ourselves lodged in the business end of the campaign.
Who will drop? Who will pull themselves away from the trap door as it swings open on May 28? There are some big clubs in the mire. Some may not make it.
Here we run the rule over the tightest relegation battle in Premier League history.
David Moyes’ West Ham find themselves etched in a relegation battle in the Premier League
12th: Crystal Palace
Attack: Four games without a goal (and 11 without a win) did for Patrick Vieira with Palace the joint-lowest scorers in the division but is that really about to change under Roy Hodgson?
Defence: Palace conceded more than once in only one of their final 10 games under Vieira. But first game post-sacking, they ship four goals to Arsenal.
Manager: A (previously) happily-retired 75-year-old, whose last employment was to relegate Watford. What could possibly now go wrong at Selhurst Park?
Relegation rating: Palace have the best run-in, facing every other team in the relegation battle. But I worry they could now fall apart.
Relegation odds: 7-2
Roy Hodgson has returned as Crystal Palace manager to help them survive relegation
His first task will be to get Palace firing in attack following Patrick Vieira’s sacking
13th: Wolves
Attack: Wolves are the joint-lowest scorers in the division and that’s not helped by their strikers being allergic to goals. Matheus Cunha’s effort in the defeat to Leeds was the first scored by a Wolves central frontman in the Premier League in 374 days. Can only hope the same cliché about London buses applies to timetables in the West Midlands.
Defence: Despite shipping four goals to Leeds, no relegation rival has conceded fewer goals since the restart after the World Cup.
Manager: Julen Lopetegui has done a good job but he seems obsessed with VAR being almost an anti-Wolves conspiracy. This despite VAR overturns costing Wolves no points this season and decisions to award and/or disallow goals being more in their favour than any relegation rival.
Relegation rating: Wolves will probably stay up — just as long as VAR doesn’t do for them first…
Relegation odds: 10-3
Matheus Cunha’s goal for Wolves against Leeds was the side’s first by a striker in over a year
14th: Leeds
Attack: If you can score goals, you’ve got a chance. Leeds certainly can do that. Rodrigo has 11 this season, the same as Mo Salah, and is one of 14 different Leeds goalscorers in the league.
Defence: It’s making progress under the new manager. Junior Firpo is out of the wilderness and Robin Koch is forming a strong partnership with Max Wober.
Manager: Javi Gracia won’t excite you like the old days of Marcelo Bielsa, or connect to you with the heart-on-sleeve emotion of Jesse Marsch — but he might just keep you up with a solid shape and tactical plan. Only Arsenal, Man City and Aston Villa have more points since Gracia’s first game.
Relegation rating: Victory at Wolves showed how tight it is down there: 19th to 14th with one win. But their run-in is tough: trips to Arsenal and Man City and home visits of Liverpool and Newcastle.
Relegation odds: 11/4
Javi Gracia has impressed as Leeds manager since taking over from Jesse Marsch
15th: Everton
Attack: Goals from open play have been a struggle but when your first Premier League goal under Sean Dyche is a James Tarkowski header from a Dwight McNeil corner, you know what you’re going to get. It’s not always pretty, but it’s effective.
Defence: It was no surprise Everton’s players ran the furthest they had all season in Dyche’s first game in charge. Since then, only Leeds and Arsenal have racked up more miles per game. Only Leeds have made more tackles. And yet only Nottingham Forest have conceded more goals.
Manager: Only Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Spurs and Brentford have more points since Dyche took charge. He’s already won as many games this season in his eight matches in charge as Frank Lampard mustered in 20.
Relegation rating: Dyche will keep Everton up…but will they face a points deduction?
Relegation odds: 7/4
Sean Dyche is likely to keep Everton up, but they may face a points deduction for off-the-field issues
16th: Nottingham Forest
Attack: Nearly everything about Forest’s survival bid comes down to whether they are playing at home or not. Forest have scored in every game at the City Ground since September. Away from home, though, they’ve netted just four times.
Defence: It’s the same at the back, too. They’ve conceded 17 goals at home but 32 on the road. Six of their last 11 games are away while their five home games include Manchester United, Brighton and Arsenal.
Manager: Steve Cooper has done a phenomenal job. Thirty — THIRTY — new faces not just to remember but turn into a team that can stay in the top flight.
Relegation rating: The roar of Mull of Kintyre can only do so much. Forest fans will give everything to push their players to safety but you fear there’s too much to do away from home.
Relegation odds: Evens
Steve Cooper has done a fantastic job as Nottingham Forest manager with 30 new signings
17th: Leicester
Attack: Jamie Vardy’s days as an elite Premier League striker are behind him but this Leicester team still has goals in it. They are the top scorers in the relegation scrap and with James Maddison pulling the strings, they have more quality than most.
Defence: …but that means nothing when your defence is more porous than dear Henry’s old bucket. Leicester have conceded the first goal in every game this year. Danny Ward’s been so bad in goal that Brendan Rodgers has had to put him out of his misery.
Manager: Rodgers has achieved great things but fails to unite a club desperate for togetherness. Saying that survival would be one of your greatest achievements with the same team you won the FA Cup with will tend to do that.
Relegation rating: They have the quality but they are yet to show the fight.
Relegation odds: 4-1
Star midfielder James Maddison is key to Leicester’s survival hopes this season
18th: West Ham
Attack: No side has performed in front of goal as poorly as West Ham. The numbers say the Hammers should have scored 35 goals from the chances they have created. They have scored 24, the biggest gulf in the division. They need ruthlessness from somewhere. Danny Ings, perhaps?
Defence: Not the main problem. West Ham have conceded the fewest goals in the relegation battle and fewer than most in the division, though just two clean sheets in 14 is a concern.
Manager: How long can David Moyes sup in the Last Chance Saloon? He had five games to save his job in September, reports said. Then another four in December. Then another two games last week to determine his fate. West Ham, meanwhile, sit in the bottom three. Ding, ding, last orders?
Relegation rating: Start converting their chances a bit more regularly and West Ham might be OK.
Relegation odds: 7/2
Danny Ings needs to provide the ruthlessness West Ham have been lacking in front of goal
19th: Bournemouth
Attack: A funny one, really. They have the worse expected goals of all the bottom nine sides yet only Leicester and Leeds have scored more. Seven of their players have scored more than once this season. No rival side has more.
Defence: The worst in the division by a mile. Most goals conceded, most shots faced. That 1-0 victory at home over Liverpool earlier this month gets more and more incredible by the week.
Manager: Gary O’Neil has been involved in successful relegation fights as a player at Portsmouth and now must take every last memory of that into his inexperienced managerial career if his side want to escape the drop to the second tier.
Relegation rating: The Liverpool result shows that the Cherries can beat anyone on their day. Sadly, a defence that bad means those days tend not to come around often enough.
Relegation odds: 4/5
Gary O’Neil has struggled as Bournemouth manager but his side are not out the fight yet
20th: Southampton
Attack: A straightforward plan, really. Win a foul within 30 yards of goal and hope dead-ball specialist James Ward-Prowse pops it in. He often does, in fairness, but it’s hardly a fool-proof plan to keep you in the Premier League.
Defence: It’s been a baptism of fire for young goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu but it’s three clean sheets in six under Ruben Selles.
Manager: It’s sad to be deprived of Nathan Jones’s weekly musings on Welsh mining communities but Saints’ survival hopes have soared under Selles’.
Relegation rating: Ward-Prowse won’t score enough free-kicks to keep them up.
Relegation odds: 3/10
Ruben Selles has been tasked with keeping Southampton in the Premier League
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