Many senior Tories and furious backbenchers want to oust Theresa May
With Brexit briefly shelved, there is one urgent question hanging over British politics this weekend. Theresa May: can she survive?
Many senior Tories and furious backbenchers want to oust her. That became clear on Thursday when she made her Commons statement in the wake of the emergency European Union summit in Brussels.
There she had to explain to fellow leaders why she was seeking another extension to Article 50, so delaying our departure from the EU yet again.
Back in Westminster, she was greeted with open contempt by many on her own side. Tory grandee, Sir Bill Cash, expressed the view of many in his party when he called on her to resign.
This weekend Tory MPs start their Easter break, which may well make matters worse rather than better for the Prime Minister.
Back in their constituencies, many will be confronted by the growing frustration and anger of some voters at the delay to Brexit, and Mrs May’s decision to hold talks with Labour in an attempt to get her thrice-rejected withdrawal deal through Parliament.
The Tories have plummeted ten points in the polls in less than a month — the fastest slump since John Major’s government crashed out of the exchange rate mechanism on September 16, 1992.
This is ominous indeed: the Tories never recovered from that debacle and the way was open for Tony Blair and New Labour to sweep into power.
But for Mrs May and her allies, there is a sliver of optimism. In my view Theresa May is still more respected by voters than by many Tories, and that I believe is at the heart of her refusal to quit.
Her objective remains to hang on until Brexit has been completed. That would mean surviving in office until the Conservative Party Conference at the end of September, just a month before Britain’s new departure date from the EU on October 31 (a Halloween to remember if so).
The PM may just make it, but a nightmare obstacle course lies ahead of her if she is to do so.
First up are the local elections on May 2 — less than three weeks’ time. When this set of elections was last held four years ago, the Tories did rather well.
This time, local campaigners tell me they are expecting a bloodbath.
There’s widespread talk of a collapse of the party vote and a surge of support for Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. And let’s not forget that it was in the wake of the disastrous local election results of May 2009, that cabinet minister James Purnell launched a failed leadership plot against then prime minister Gordon Brown.
Don’t rule out the same thing happening again.
The PM may just make it, but a nightmare obstacle course lies ahead of her if she is to do so (pictured: Theresa May, Amber Rudd and Boris Johnson in 2016)
There will then be a three-week lull until the European elections begin on May 23.
Once again, these elections —which we are compelled to take part in if we haven’t departed the EU — threaten to plunge the Conservatives into electoral chaos. There are fears that Tory voters either won’t go to the polls or will simply defect to rival parties.
If Mrs May has survived thus far, this may be when demands for a change in the Tory leadership become overwhelming.
In any case, June and July are notoriously the most perilous period in Parliament for any Conservative leader. MPs have more time on their hands to plot in the Commons bars.
With Brexit in a shambles, local and European election meltdown, the potential for disaster during the summer is obvious.
While Party rules determine that there can be no vote of confidence in Mrs May’s leadership until the end of this year, it’s not hard to envisage a cabinet revolt and a delegation of the so-called men in grey suits going to Downing Street to tell Mrs May that her time is up. Supporters of Boris Johnson are already comparing the PM to José Mourinho towards the end of his lacklustre term at Manchester United.
Boris would be like Man U’s new manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, they say, and bring life and fizz to the Party and revive its electoral fortunes.
I think there could be some truth in this. Mr Johnson is a superlative campaigner. He brings optimism and ebullience with him wherever he goes. Unlike Mrs May, he gives the impression of enjoying life and politics, too.
It is very hard, however, to see how Mr Johnson could solve the Brexit dilemma. He would be no more capable than Mrs May of mustering the Commons majority needed to press through with a Brexit consensus.
And while Mrs May isn’t popular in Brussels, Mr Johnson is the arch-enemy. I can’t see him extracting concessions that Mrs May was unable to secure.
Were Boris Johnson to become prime minister, there is only one way he could force Brexit through. That is by proroguing — suspending — Parliament and using the power of the executive to force through a No Deal Brexit.
My Downing Street sources tell me that Mrs May has already contemplated and ruled out this course of action.
Mr Johnson might choose otherwise, even though such a move would prompt a constitutional crisis and drag the Queen, who would be required to assent to any prorogation of Parliament, into the heart of the Brexit debate.
And it is for these reasons I believe it is more likely than not that Mrs May will get her wish and deliver her final speech to Tory conference in Manchester this autumn. She aims to have Brexit wrapped up by then so that she can go out on a high and secure her legacy.
But she needs to be careful what she wishes for. It may not go well, although all decent people will hope otherwise. Whatever one thinks of her political competence, she is a woman driven by duty and a sense of right and wrong.
This week the PM will reportedly take a holiday with husband Philip on a walking trip in Wales. She certainly deserves her break from Brexit — and so do the rest of us.
Sacking Sir Roger for his opinions is a sign that free speech is being curbed
Sir Roger has never been afraid to make difficult or unpopular statements
I am troubled by Sir Roger Scruton’s sacking from his role as a housing adviser to the Government.
That is not because I agree with his offensive remarks about Islamophobia, the Chinese and the investor and philanthropist George Soros that were reportedly made in an interview with the New Statesman this week. It’s because I worry about free speech.
Sir Roger has never been afraid to make difficult or unpopular statements during his hugely distinguished career as a writer and philosopher.
As a young man, his support for the political creed of Margaret Thatcher angered Lefties and cost him his university career. He also bravely supported dissidents in the former Czechoslovakia and, when the Iron Curtain fell, was awarded Czech Republic’s Medal of Merit in acknowledgement.
Now, there are suggestions that some of his words in the Left-wing New Statesman may have been distorted and taken out of context. Even so, while I disagree strongly with some of the views he apparently expressed, I cannot for the life of me see what they have to do with his role as chairman of the Government’s Building Better, Building Beautiful Commission.
On a personal note, I and countless others have deepened our understanding of conservatism — and much else besides — through Sir Roger’s writing.
His Dictionary Of Political Thought is by my side as I write my columns.
Treasury Secretary Liz Truss has got her leadership campaign off to the best possible start by calling into question the HS2 rail project. I have repeatedly warned that this much-vaunted investment is out of date, out of control and an unforgivable waste of taxpayers’ money. There is undeniable evidence that it will grossly exceed its official £56 billion budget.
Chancellor Philip Hammond has lacked the courage to put this white elephant out of its misery. Now Liz, his deputy, puts Mr Hammond to shame. Asked by The Spectator magazine this week whether she would scrap HS2, she replied: ‘That’s a matter for the zero-based capital review that I’ll be looking at very intently.’
Good for her. There are so many worthwhile ways of spending the money, rather than on this vanity project.