PETER OBORNE: On the streets of Tehran, the fear: we’re one misjudgment away from all-out war 

Everything seemed normal when I woke up in Tehran yesterday morning. There was no noise besides the tooting of car horns in busy morning traffic and the call to prayer in the city’s many mosques.

But overnight, the news was desperately serious and fraught with menace. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had fired ballistic missiles into two bases used by American – and British – troops in northern and western Iraq.

Though there were no casualties, the timing said it all. The missiles were launched at 1.20am. The exact same time when a US drone struck Iran’s talismanic military leader Qassem Soleimani – along with a senior Iraqi paramilitary leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis – outside Baghdad airport.

These were the first reprisals since General Soleimani was killed last Friday. They are unlikely to be the last.

Symbolic: Peter Oborne alongside a poster of Qassem Soleimani, yesterday. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missiles into two bases used by Americanat 1.20am – and British at exact same time when a US drone struck Iran’s talismanic military leader Qassem Soleimani

This is the biggest and most dangerous military confrontation between America and Iran since the American hostage crisis in 1979 when a group of Iranian students took over the US embassy in Tehran, holding 52 US citizens hostage.

That was an episode which ended disastrously for the United States when a rescue mission despatched by President Jimmy Carter saw eight US serviceman die when their helicopter crashed into the desert. It cost Carter his presidency. The situation today can easily escalate. How badly depends on two questions: Will the United States respond with further attacks? And will the Iranians strike again?

Well-placed sources told me yesterday that Iran is indeed ready to make further – and potentially deadlier – attacks, though they added that this would depend on the US response.

The al-Asad base for American and coalition troops (pictured above in December) was struck by missiles ‘clearly launched from Iran’, U.S. officials say

Oborne said the crisis in Tehran is the biggest and most dangerous military confrontation between America and Iran since the American hostage crisis in 1979 when a group of Iranian students took over the US embassy in Tehran, holding 52 US citizens hostage (pictured)

Oborne said the crisis in Tehran is the biggest and most dangerous military confrontation between America and Iran since the American hostage crisis in 1979 when a group of Iranian students took over the US embassy in Tehran, holding 52 US citizens hostage (pictured)

There is no question that the world is one tiny misjudgment away from an all-out war which could quickly spread across the Middle East to embrace neighbouring Gulf states and Israel.

A respected Iranian observer, Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Professor of English literature and orientalism at the University of Tehran, warned of such a bloodthirsty outcome over Twitter: ‘Everyone should immediately leave the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and other countries where US bases are seen as a threat to Iran,’ he said. ‘If the Trump regime makes a foolish move, these regimes will be held responsible, considered hostile entities, attacked with full force and destroyed.’

Troublingly, one well-informed figure told me that last night’s strikes might not be enough to satisfy public anger against Donald Trump for what is seen in Iran as not merely a political assassination but also an act of war.

Iran has fired 22 ballistic missiles at two Iraqi bases housing American troops in a revenge attack for the U.S. drone strike that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani

Iran has fired 22 ballistic missiles at two Iraqi bases housing American troops in a revenge attack for the U.S. drone strike that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani

Hours before the attack, Major General Hossein Salami, the commander of the IRGC, told mourners who packed the streets in Kerman that he would deliver ‘tough and finishing’ revenge for Soleimani’s assassination last week.

‘We tell our enemies that we will retaliate but if they take another action we will set ablaze the place that they like and are passionate about,’ Salami said.

Iran’s state-controlled television was yesterday claiming that the missile strikes had already inflicted immense American casualties with 80 ‘terrorists’ killed. These reports are false but may do something to quell public demand for revenge.

The Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq and the Erbil base in Iraqi Kurdistan were both struck by the missiles on Tuesday at about 5.30pm (EST)

The Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq and the Erbil base in Iraqi Kurdistan were both struck by the missiles on Tuesday at about 5.30pm (EST)

Here in Iran, there is no question at the sense of shock and grief that Qassem Soleimani, a genuinely popular national figure, was killed by the United States on an official visit to neighbouring Iraq.

Millions of people flocked to mourn his death in Iran’s towns and cities on Tuesday morning. In one funeral procession in the south-eastern Iranian city of Kerman, at least 56 people are reported to have been killed in a stampede due to overcrowding.

Talking to dozens of Iranians I concluded that the killing of Soleimani has elevated someone who spent most of his life well away from the public gaze to a folk hero of epic proportions.

While the attack marks a significant escalation in tensions between the US and Iran, it falls far short of direct attacks on US commanders that had been feared

While the attack marks a significant escalation in tensions between the US and Iran, it falls far short of direct attacks on US commanders that had been feared

Grief at his passing has transcended normal political divisions, uniting Iran’s reformers and hardliners, idealistic youth and die-hard clerics, in fury at the United States. Walking through central Tehran, Soleimani’s picture is the first thing you see on every street corner, hotel lobby, office and government building.

These pictures do not depict the dark and sinister figure presented in the West. Rather, they show him smiling and often in civilian clothes.

One Iranian, though by no means a hardliner, told me that all Iranians admired Soleimani for his generosity, patriotism and the warmth of his smile.

That image is, of course, the polar opposite of the conspiratorial figure guilty of organising terrible atrocities painted in the West, and across much of the Sunni Arab world.

The Iranians I spoke to – most of whom were moderates by Western standards – simply do not recognise the idea that Soleimani was a terrorist. For them, President Trump made a terrible political blunder by killing Soleimani and deserves to pay a price.

I was, however, unable to detect any sign of hostility towards Britain. There were no angry crowds outside the British embassy yesterday – always an early indicator of potential trouble.

It is, after all, only nine years since our embassy was invaded and partially destroyed by a mob furious that Britain had imposed sanctions in response to Iran’s nuclear programme.

And at a conference organised by the Iranian foreign ministry in central Tehran last Tuesday, just hours before the strike, while the icy anger felt against the United States was all too apparent, there was no such emotion directed towards British delegates.

Indeed, one Briton was being hailed as a saviour in the capital. Tristram Hunt, the former Labour politician and now director of the Victoria and Albert Museum in London, was on the front of the Tehran Times for forthright remarks condemning Trump’s threat to bomb Iranian cultural sites.

Some Iranians recognised the way that Britain, along with Germany and France, have sought to keep alive the nuclear deal struck by President Obama five years ago only to be abandoned by Donald Trump in May 2018.

And while luxury goods shops are still doing plenty of business here, there is no doubt that punitive American sanctions are causing serious economic difficulties.

But as far as the current crisis goes, the policy of Boris Johnson to stress the need for ‘urgent de-escalation’ – and declining to stand shoulder to shoulder with Donald Trump as Tony Blair notoriously did with George W. Bush over the Iraq invasion – is paying off.

A man holds shrapnel from a missile launched by Iran on U.S.-led coalition forces on the outskirts of Duhok, in northern Iraq 70 miles from Erbil, following Iranian missile strikes

A man holds shrapnel from a missile launched by Iran on U.S.-led coalition forces on the outskirts of Duhok, in northern Iraq 70 miles from Erbil, following Iranian missile strikes

However, the question is whether Britain can continue to keep its distance from the United States and its out of control Commander-in-Chief over the next few weeks.

British forces serve alongside US troops in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, and it would be all too easy for them to be dragged into conflict.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab confirmed British troops are stationed in both of the bases that were targeted by Iran overnight.

As far as the United States is concerned, it’s a different story.

The talk among even moderate Iranians is that the US will soon no longer be welcome, not just in Iran but across the wider Middle East.

The United States replaced the British Empire as the dominant power in this region after the Second World War.

As I wandered through Tehran yesterday, I found myself wondering whether future historians will view Donald Trump’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani as the moment when US dominance started to fade.

If so, Trump will be seen to have made a terrible mistake.  

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