Premier League’s final week has title race, top four and relegation ALL on the line

The Premier League has had plenty of dramatic season finales through the years. 

Carlo Ancelotti’s Chelsea hit Wigan for eight to pip Manchester United to the title in 2010. Bradford City produced one of their most memorable displays to beat Liverpool and stave off relegation in their first top flight season in 2000. Carlos Tevez helped West Ham defeat Manchester United at Old Trafford to relegate Sheffield United in 2007. And who can forget Sergio Aguero’s title-winning goal a decade ago to give Man City their first Premier League trophy. 

And yet the 2021-22 season is itching to join the list of epic finales with the title race, the top four pursuit and relegation battle all still up in the air. Wherever you look, the stakes are sky high.  

Riyad Mahrez’s missed penalty has given Liverpool an opening in the Premier League title race

Pascal Struijk gave Leeds a crucial lifeline in the battle to avoid relegation in a draw to Brighton

Pascal Struijk gave Leeds a crucial lifeline in the battle to avoid relegation in a draw to Brighton

Just when Everton looked to have got their act together – a win over Brentford at home would have secured survival – they implode, losing 3-2 when down to nine men. 

Down the road Jesse Marsch’s Leeds breathed new life into their hopes of staying up with a stoppage time equaliser against Brighton from Pascal Struijk. 

And then there was Burnley, not-so-silently fuming about a penalty conceded to Tottenham that they felt, unsurprisingly, was harsh. 

Wherever fans look as the season heads to its final week there are narratives aplenty. 

Former Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard takes his Aston Villa side to Man City on the final day knowing any result other than a loss at the Etihad Stadium could hand his old side the title. 

Newcastle face the prospect of being able to relegate Burnley, the team they nabbed striker Chris Wood from in January.

What about Brentford being motivated to condemn Leeds to relegation, with memories cast back to Leeds’ players singing ‘Mind the gap, Thomas Frank’ at the Bees boss following promotion to the Premier League. How that will get replayed in the build-up. 

Sportsmail has broken down exactly what remains at stake this season with the title race, top four and relegation battles as feisty as ever… 

TITLE RACE

When the final whistle sounded at Anfield on May 7, Tottenham having sealed a point against Liverpool, there was a degree of resignation among some of the Reds support. 

That is probably that. City, dumped out of the Champions League by Real Madrid, solely have the league to focus on and games against Newcastle, West Ham and Aston Villa were unlikely to cause much jeopardy.  

City responded emphatically the next day, hitting Newcastle for five. With a three-point gap opened, the title race looked close to being signed, sealed and delivered. 

But as Liverpool toasted their second trophy in a hoped quadruple following a penalty shootout win over Chelsea in the FA Cup final, all of a sudden a lifeline emerged. City stumbled at West Ham. Just like that the title race ignited.  

Man City's 2-2 draw with West Ham has ensured just one point could separate the two sides

Man City’s 2-2 draw with West Ham has ensured just one point could separate the two sides

Pep Guardiola believes it will be win or bust in the title race on the final weekend for Man City

Pep Guardiola believes it will be win or bust in the title race on the final weekend for Man City

TITLE RACE RUN-IN 

Tuesday, May 17: Southampton vs Liverpool (7.45pm)

Sunday, May 22: Man City vs Aston Villa (4pm)

Sunday May 22: Liverpool vs Wolves (4pm)

Odds to be crowned champions:

Manchester City – 1/10

Liverpool – 7/1

‘Now there are no debates about goal difference or anything. We need to win our game to be champion. If we don’t win, Liverpool will be champions,’ City boss Pep Guardiola said after a 2-2 draw at West Ham, in which Riyad Mahrez missed a penalty to win the game. 

‘I can assure you something: in one week our stadium will be sold out and we will give them all of our lives over 95 minutes and they will give us their lives.

‘It is an incredible privilege to have the chance with our people at home to win one game to be champion. I’m looking forward to it. 

‘We are going to rest for one or two days, mentally disconnect, and then train three or four days to prepare the game against Aston Villa.’

Now the gap stands at four points, with Liverpool facing a midweek trip to lowly Southampton. Win that – as expected – and just a point separates the sides. Goal difference, before Southampton, favours City by seven. If Jurgen Klopp’s side can run up the score at St Mary’s, that could become a moot point. 

A one-point gap with City hosting Villa and Liverpool hosting Wolves would be quite the spectacle. 

Get that Premier League trophy in a helicopter! 

Liverpool's FA Cup win secured a second trophy as they continue to eye a famous quadruple

Liverpool’s FA Cup win secured a second trophy as they continue to eye a famous quadruple

TOP FOUR BATTLE

At the start of the campaign there was a degree of optimism that Chelsea, newly crowned Champions of Europe, had the tools at their disposal to sustain a title fight with Man City and Liverpool. Instead they are battling to hold on to a top four spot. 

Admittedly, Thomas Tuchel’s side look pretty secure in third, needing just one point from their final two games against Leicester City and Watford, both at Stamford Bridge.

Defeat in the FA Cup final – a second successive shootout defeat in a cup final this season to Liverpool – stings but Tuchel’s rallying cry at full-time suggested that he really believes Leicester and Watford will ‘define’ the entire season.

‘It heavily depends on what we do in the next two games and where we end up. Then I will give my honest opinion,’ the German said when asked to sum up Chelsea’s season.

‘It will be difficult to pick the players up now, harder after defeat, but not impossible.

There are plenty of permutations with a couple of games remaining in the race for the top four

There are plenty of permutations with a couple of games remaining in the race for the top four

Chelsea need just a point to ensure they will secure Champions League football next season

Chelsea need just a point to ensure they will secure Champions League football next season

TOP FOUR RUN-IN 

Monday, May 16: Newcastle vs Arsenal (8pm)

Thursday, May 19: Chelsea vs Leicester (8pm)

Sunday, May 22: Arsenal vs Everton (4pm)

Sunday, May 22: Norwich vs Tottenham (4pm)

Sunday, May 22: Chelsea vs Watford (4pm)

Odds to finish in the top four:

Tottenham – 4/6

Arsenal – 11/10 

‘And maybe the best way about it is to be honest, we have now two days off and we need to prepare. 

‘The season is not finished, because we have goals to reach in Premier League. This is sometimes hard, sometimes it’s good, but it is what it is.’

It would take an epic collapse now for the Blues to miss out. Leicester, who Chelsea face next, smashed already-relegated Watford for five at the weekend. 

On paper, the Hornets should offer little-to-no resistance. 

But then comes what many believe to be the real race. Two north London teams fighting for one spot. A straight fight for Champions League football and local supremacy – don’t underestimate the value to supporters in both of those. 

Victory in the north London derby for Tottenham has shifted momentum back in their favour and a 1-0 win over Burnley backed that up to put them two points ahead of Arsenal, having played a game more. 

But even with the capitulation away at Tottenham, Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta is serene. It’s still in Arsenal’s hands, he knows that.  

‘It is a good place to be. It is in our hands,’ Arteta said ahead of Monday’s somewhat daunting trip to face Newcastle.

‘We want to be playing in the Champions League. We’ve come so far and we want to capitalise on that, and the excitement and the opportunities there. 

‘We will really go for it. It’s not pressure, it’s excitement and this is what we have built over the last few months. Now, it’s in our hands, and we want to deliver that.’

Arsenal underwhelmed in the north London derby defeat to Tottenham as pressure builds

Arsenal underwhelmed in the north London derby defeat to Tottenham as pressure builds

‘It’s not pressure,’ is an interesting line given the pressure could not be greater. Arsenal’s young side have done so much right this season and to falter now would be agonising.  

A trip to Newcastle is followed up with a final day visit from Everton, who as yet could need every last point and would be unlikely to roll over with ease.  

So confidence is growing over at Tottenham. 

Win at Norwich and they have done all they can. Should favours arrive from elsewhere they could finish as high as third. Should Arsenal and Chelsea win out, the Europa League awaits. 

‘I think this team improved in many aspects, not only technically, tactically, but mentally,’ Conte told BT Sport after the win over Burnley.

‘This team is becoming stronger in its mind and to understand the moment is to defend the long ball, the second ball is to fight.

‘I’m seeing a lot of improvement in my team and I’m proud about this. In only seven months we did a really good job with the players but I have to thank my players because from the first day they showed great commitment, great attitude in every situation.’

Antonio Conte's Tottenham are showing resilience but know that top four is not in their hands

Antonio Conte’s Tottenham are showing resilience but know that top four is not in their hands

RELEGATION FIGHT 

Everton, Leeds and Burnley are a far cry away from the bright lights of league titles and Champions League football. For these three the mission is clear: stay up by hook or crook. 

Everton, even with a 3-2 defeat to Brentford, remain in the driving seat with a two point buffer on Burnley and a game in hand against Leeds, at Goodison Park against Crystal Palace. 

One win from two would mathematically secure their safety. In truth, all three teams could lose their remaining games and it remains as is.   

‘The reality is we’re on the bad end of a lot of decisions this season,’ Everton boss Frank Lampard said after the Brentford loss. 

‘That’s hard because I have to represent the club and the fans that come here and those small margins can affect our position.’

Defeat allows for doubt to creep back in. Their game in hand against Crystal Palace feels like one of the Toffees’ biggest game in years, particularly with Leeds giving themselves a fighting chance against Brighton.

The fight to avoid relegation from the Premier League is going to go to the final weekend

The fight to avoid relegation from the Premier League is going to go to the final weekend

Everton blew the chance to secure safety but have another opportunity against Crystal Palace

Everton blew the chance to secure safety but have another opportunity against Crystal Palace

RELEGATION RUN-IN 

Thursday, May 19: Everton vs Crystal Palace (7.45pm) 

Thursday, May 19: Aston Villa vs Burnley (8pm)

Sunday, May 22: Arsenal vs Everton (4pm)

Sunday, May 22: Brentford vs Leeds (4pm)

Sunday, May 22: Burnley vs Newcastle (4pm)

Odds to be relegated: 

Leeds – 8/11

Burnley – 13/8

Everton – 7/1 

Struijk’s late strike to salvage a draw saw Elland Road roar into the night. Out of the relegation zone for the time being, Leeds know a win away at Brentford will give them a massive chance of surviving.  

‘We’re alive right now, regardless of the last day,’ Jesse Marsch said. ‘We just have to fight for any point. 

‘Any point gets us a little bit closer and shifts a little bit of the momentum.’ 

For Burnley, their momentum has stalled massively since their 3-2 win against Everton. 

Sean Dyche was binned off after defeat to Norwich and while Mike Jackson and the coaching staff guided the Clarets to a four-game unbeaten run, two straight defeats has them condemned in the relegation zone once more. 

Their game in hand is a trip to Aston Villa on May 19 and with Gerrard determined to end the season on a high, don’t expect Villa to want to get rolled over in their last home game of the season.

Then Burnley host Newcastle on the final day. While the gap stands at one point between themselves and Leeds, Burnley know they have to target at least four points from six to ensure Marsch and his players definitively finish below them. 

The relegation fight feels like a ‘pick-em’ scenario. It’s anyone’s guess how this one plays itself out.  

Burnley's caretaker boss Mike Jackson (middle) has two games left to try and keep the club up

Burnley’s caretaker boss Mike Jackson (middle) has two games left to try and keep the club up

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