How rising seas will sink COUNTRIES: Scientists calculate that current satellite-based predictions are wrong and three times as many people will be hit by rising shore lines by 2050
- A study suggests 300 million people will be affected by sea level rise by 2050
- The figure triples estimates previously outlined by NASA
- In the UK alone, 3.5 million people are now at risk of floods
- Actual estimates may still worsen depending on Antarctic ice sheet instability
New estimates from scientists suggest that three times as many people could be affected by rising seas than previously thought.
According to a paper published in Nature Communications on Tuesday, new models show that 300 million are currently living on land that will flood at least once a year by 2050.
This eclipses a former estimate from NASA which projected 80 million people were currently at risk.
The new estimates eclipse projections from NASA which previously put the number of people at risk of floods at 80 million. New models say as many as 300 million people are at risk
A revamped model, which more accurately takes into account land elevation using satellite readings and artificial intelligence, portends that swaths of countries like Vietnam and India will be under water by midcentury.
According to researchers, the new estimates came as a shock even for them, given their dramatic difference from previous tallies.
‘These assessments show the potential of climate change to reshape cities, economies, coastlines and entire global regions within our lifetimes,’ Scott Kulp, the lead author of the study and a senior scientist at Climate Central told The Guardian.
At-risk areas include large portions of heavily populated cities like Mumbai, which is home to more than 18 million people and could be almost entirely underwater in the next 30 years.
Models show the worst effects could be seen across Asia where countries like India saw a sevenfold increase in the number of people set to be affected by annual floods, and China which saw a threefold increase.
The threat isn’t reduced to Asia, however. In the UK, 3.5 million people could be at risk of flooding by 2050 according to their estimates.
The US wasn’t among the most affected areas according to the researchers, but previous estimates have shown that dozens of cities across the country’s coastal regions could soon be submerged, especially in states like New Jersey and Florida.
Above is a map that shows the relative increase in people affected compared to previous estimates using NASA data
Both Jakarta and Bangkok are also set to be affected by rising tides. Given how densely populated those cities are, the rise could displace millions
Flooding during Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey is shown above, from 2012
While the projection is significantly worse than previous models, researchers note that the disconcerting results may still get worse.
According to them, models are dependent on an increasingly volatile Antarctic ice sheets which continues to hemorrhage ice into the sea.
Scientists say that if conditions there worsen, as many as 640 million people could be threatened by rising tides by 2100.
The estimates are also based on countries keeping stride with emission reductions outlined by the Paris Agreement – benchmarks which have continually gone unmet.
Likewise, estimates of the financial impact could also be much greater than previously thought.
As noted by The Guardian, World Bank data that projected the cost of climate change globally to be about $1 trillion per year were based on former models.