Scientists have told Boris Johnson it must be his judgement call whether the two-metre rule is eased – as he faces massive pressure from business and his own Cabinet.
SAGE has insisted it cannot take a position on whether the ‘precautionary’ distance limit should stay in place, stressing there is a balance of risks.
The PM looks to be preparing a shift on the crucial issue, with fears the hospitality industry will not recover and millions of jobs will be lost unless the guidance is loosened.
The CBI says halving the distance to one metre – regarded as a ‘minimum’ by experts – could double the level of activity possible for firms.
The scale of the damage being wreaked to the economy was underlined today with official figures showing GDP slumped by more than a fifth in April – the first full month of lockdown.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak is among the senior figures pushing for a change, as non-essential shops start to open again and restrictions on households mixing are downgraded slightly.
Boris Johnson looks to be preparing a shift on the crucial issue, with fears the hospitality industry will not recover and millions of jobs will be lost unless the guidance is loosened
SAGE has insisted it cannot take a position on whether the ‘precautionary’ two-metre rule should stay in place, stressing there is a balance of risks
Three quarters of pubs, restaurants and hotels could go bust unless the two-metre rule is scrapped, MPs warned last night.
In a bleak assessment, a cross-party group of MPs said the majority of businesses in the catering and tourism sector would find it ‘impossible to operate financially’ if staff and customers were required to remain two metres apart.
The group urged ministers to work urgently to get the distance reduced – warning that many venues would simply be unable to reopen next month even if lockdown is eased.
According to Whitehall sources, the Prime Minister has told allies that scrapping the is was a matter of ‘when, not if’, with the majority of the Cabinet believed to back the shift.
However, pressure is mounting for swift action to unlock Britain’s economy, help ensure more children can return to school and give businesses the best chance of survival.
There appears to be little prospect of schools returning in full by September – which Mr Johnson has said is his goal – unless the two-metre rule is relaxed.
Sir Patrick Vallance said this week that the distance is based on an ‘assessment’ but was not hard and fast.
‘It is not a rule, it is not a scientific rule – it is a risk-based assessment on when risk reduces,’ he told a briefing.
‘And the risks are associated with distance – so the risk falls after two metres – time, what mitigating factors you can put in place, which can include whether you are sitting side-by-side, back-to-back or face-to-face, whether you’ve got face covering, whether there is ventilation and other measures.’
According to the Times, Sage has concluded that one metre is a ‘minimum’ and two metres is ‘precautionary’.
But scientists have insisted there are other critical factors in the risk, such as whether people are facing, how long they spend in close proximity, whether masks are worn, and ventilation.
One Sage member compared the issue to driverless cars, pointing out that while scientists could suggest how likely they are to crash, politicians had to decide whether the risk was acceptable on the roads.
Kate Nicholls, chief executive of UKHospitality, has warned that ‘the road back will be a long and hard one’ for firms in the sectors if the Government fails to address its concerns.
Treasury figures yesterday revealed that the crisis has forced accommodation and food services companies to furlough 1.4 million people, claiming £2.6billion from the government.
The new report – which is based on testimony and written evidence from over 350 businesses, trade bodies and unions – also called for current financial support packages to be extended.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak (pictured at John Lewis this week) is among the senior figures pushing for a change, as non-essential shops start to open again and restrictions on households mixing are downgraded slightly
It also called for the Government to support tourism by creating a new autumn bank holiday, 10 per cent cut to tourism VAT and the introduction of air bridges.
Chair of the APPG, Steve Double MP, said: ‘The UK’s hospitality and tourism sectors have been devastated by the Covid-19 crisis and this report highlights the scale of the damage done to businesses.
‘These are two of the most important parts of our economy and our inquiry has highlighted the importance of supporting these vital sectors in both the immediate and long term.
‘Whilst the support provided to the sector so far has been very welcomed, we are under no illusions that the path to recovery will be tough.’
Ms Nicholls said: ‘In every region of the UK, high streets in town and city centres have been almost entirely shuttered and normal life has been suspended.
‘Hospitality and tourism were some of the first sectors to take a noticeable hit, even before lockdown began.
‘The reality is that these sectors will also be two of the last to fully emerge and it will take time for employers to get back up to anywhere near full speed.’