Stunning graphs have revealed when the novel coronavirus is projected to peak in every US state.
Researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics created a model showing when deaths and hospital resource use is estimated to reach their heights from coast to coast.
The model shows that New York is projected to see its apex in just nine days, with nearly 800 deaths and 71,000 hospital beds needed.
However, Florida is still another month away and is not expected to see its peak until May 3.
The team warns that the protections for each state is assuming that social distancing measures are maintained, such as people staying home and nursing homes barring visitors.
New York is estimated see its coronavirus deaths peak on April 10 with 798 deaths occurring that day, and 71,000 hospital beds needed
But Florida, expected by some to become the next epicenter, is not projected to see its peak until May 3
New York will need 71,574 beds in total and 11,070 beds – but only has about 13,000 and 700, respectively. Pictured: EMTs wheel a sick patient to a waiting ambulance during the outbreak of coronavirus in New York City, March 28
Dr Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, explained that the model used mortality rates because when researchers began working on it, the numbers of those tested for the virus were low.
‘There wasn’t enough capacity for testing so we didn’t know how many people are positive,’ he told DailyMail.com.
The model, which allows users to search predictions for any state, not only shows deaths but the demand for hospital services in each state, including the availability of ventilators, general hospital beds, and ICU beds.
‘No state, no metro area will be spared,’ Dr Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, told Meet the Press on Sunday about the IMHE projections.
‘And the sooner that we react and the sooner the states and the metro areas react and ensure that they put in full mitigation at the same time understanding exactly what their hospitals need, then we’ll be able to move forward together and protect the most Americans.’
According to the predictions, New York is projected to be 10 days away for its peak on April 10 and will experience 798 deaths.
The state will need 71,574 beds in total and 11,070 beds – but only has about 13,000 and 700, respectively.
New York was the first US state to surpass 1,000 deaths and is estimated to report 15,546 by August 4.
‘We would expect states like New York, where a lot of travel is, to have more cases and more mortality rates,’ Dr Mokdad said.
‘But what surprised us was that some states that didn’t take these social distancing measures, it wouldn’t have been so bad for them.’
Meanwhile, California – which has the third most cases – is a projected 25 days from its peak April 26, and Washington, which has the fourth most cases – is 24 days away from its April 24 peak.
Washington is estimated to report 29 deaths on its peak day with California to report 100 deaths.
Illinois is a bit closer and is projected to hit its peak on April 16, and report 88 deaths on that day – and 2,360 overall.
Florida, which has been suggested by some to become the new epicenter after New York City, is more than a month away from its peak, 33 days, on May 3.
But the state is expected to report 174 deaths that day – and more than 6,700 by August 4.
California is a projected 25 days from its peak on April 26 and is expected to hit 100 deaths that day. Pictured: Hospital staff perform drive-thru tests for coronavirus in Indian Wells, California, March 26
Florida is expected to report 174 deaths on its peak day – May 3 – and more than 6,700 by August 4. Pictured: A woman is placed into an ambulance by paramedics after arriving in a car at a COVID-19 mobile testing site in The Villages, Florida, March 23
The researchers says additional action is needed to prevent a second wave of infections and deaths.
‘[The graphs] remind us that staying some home is very helpful,’ Dr Mokdad said.
‘It will makes lives on our physicians much easier. We don;t want them to decide which patients are on a ventilator and which aren’t as we’ve seen in other countries, like Italy.’
In the US, there are more than 154,000 confirmed cases of the virus and more more than 2,700 deaths.
Click here to view predictions for every US state.