Theresa May could be gone within days if an uprising by Tory MPs finally succeeds in toppling the isolated party leader.
The mutiny on the green benches has been growing like a volcano over recent weeks but the Prime Minister has so far resisted all efforts to pry her immediately from the leadership.
But with a heavy defeat looming over her Withdrawal Agreement Bill looming when MPs return from their half-term recess her days appear numbered – even if she manages to pull a surprise victory out of the bag.
She is due to meet powerful backbench kingpin Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, after the vote – likely on June 7 – with an expectation that she will outline when she plans to resign.
With a leadership race already underway even as she remains at her post it means the summer is likely to be spent choosing her replacement – who will then have to work out what to do about Brexit.
The current frontrunners are Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Jeremy Hunt.
But even at this late stage there is no easy way for the mutineers to make her walk the plank at a time not of her own choosing.
The Prime Minister won a no-confidence vote in December by a majority of 83 – the first such vote to be held since 2003- and under current rules she cannot face another one for a year.
The only other way currently is for her to resign, and she appears impervious to those clarion calls coming at her from all sides.
Senior Brexiteers including 1922 executive secretary Nigel Evans want the party’s rules changed so she can face another confidence vote now.
It is one she is that she is almost certain to lose.
Mrs May, pictured leaving Parliament today, is believed to have only days left as leader of the Conservatives
Boris Johnson (pictured leaving home today) is considered the front runner to succeed Mrs May, but historically Tory contests have thrown up surprises
Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is also among the frontrunners to replace Theresa May as party leader
Calling votes of no confidence is the responsibility of Sir Graham. He Brady is obliged to call a vote if 15 per cent of Tory MPs write to him calling for one – currently 48 MPs.
The process is secret and only Sir Graham knows how many letters he has received.
Ex-Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has set himself up as a right-wing Brexiteer candidate for the leadership
Once triggered, the ballot can be organised very quickly and is a simple yes or no question of whether she should remain leader.
If the leader is ousted, they typically remain as Prime Minister until a successor is appointed and ready to be confirmed by the Queen.
Any MP – apart from the ousted leader – is eligible to stand in the subsequent contest.
Conservative MPs hold a series of ballots to whittle the list of contenders down to two, with the lowest placed candidate dropping out in each round.
The final two candidates are then offered to the Tory membership at large for an election.
Opinion is divided over how long the leadership battle could take.
Lats year Wrekin MP Mark Pritchard suggested it could be done in just two weeks, suggesting that Mrs May’s replacement could be in place by July.
He suggested it would take ‘four days in the Commons and six days with the membership’ and ‘does not need to be an overly long process’.
Others believe it could take longer.
But the new Tory leader and prime minister would need to be in place before October 31 – the latest and possibly final deadline for Brexit to happen.
They will also want to be in place before the Conservative Party conference in Manchester at the end of September.
Here is how the next few months could pan out:
May 23 – European elections
Mrs May never wanted the European elections to take place on May 23, having originally planned for the UK to be out of the EU by the end of March.
And the vote is set to show why she hoped to avoid them – with the Tories on course for a drubbing at the hands of Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party.
The picture is also likely to be grim for Labour when the results emerge on Sunday 26 and Bank Holiday Monday, as both main parties pay the price for years of chaos and inaction since the referendum in 2016.
In an effort to limit the fallout, the government has sent MPs off on a long half-term recess break immediately after the election. However, keeping Tory politicians away from Westminster will not be enough to save the PM from a massive backlash.
Thursday could also see the text of the Withdrawal Bill Agreement published to give MPs time to analyse it.
Unveiling it this week would allow Mrs May to hold a second reading vote early in the first week back after recess, although she appears short of time to do it.
The Tories on course for a European elections drubbing at the hands of Nigel Farage (pictured campaigning in Brentwood this week) and his new Brexit Party.
June – Withdrawal Agreement Bill, Trump visit
Theresa May’s bid to get a Brexit deal looks doomed to fail after she gave reluctant MPs ‘one last chance’ to back her plans in exchange for a vote on a second referendum.
Mrs May promised MPs another chance to vote on the possibility of another referendum – as long as they back her ‘new’ deal. t with fury at the concession on her backbenches and little if any enthusiasm on the other side of the House, the second reading of the EU withdrawal agreement looks like it could be the end of the road for the PM.
That vote is set to go ahead on the week beginning June 3, with Friday June 7 the most likely date.
A defeat would be the fourth time her deal with the EU has been rejected by MPs – and Brexit Secretary Steven Barclay has admitted the package would then be ‘dead’.
If the situation was not fraught enough, the PM must also contend with the arrival of Donald Trump for a long-awaited and controversial three-day State Visit from June 3-5. The leaders are pictured together at Chequers last July
If the situation was not fraught enough, the PM must also contend with the arrival of Mr Trump for a long-awaited and controversial three-day State Visit. He has not been shy of voicing his disapproval for her Brexit deal, and is widely expected to throw some grenades into the debate.
The powerful Tory 1922 committee has told Mrs May that even if by some miracle the Commons vote on WAB is won, she must still immediately set out the timetable for handing over to another leader.
June-July – Tory leadership contest
The battle to succeed Mrs May as Tory leader should formally kick off early in June if, as expected, the WAB defeat heralds the end of her premiership.
Under the process, MPs will whittle what looks to be a crowded field of candidates down to two – with ordinary Conservative members voting to decide the victor.
Mr Johnson is considered the front runner to take the top job, but historically such contests have thrown up surprises.
Party chiefs hope that the first stage can be completed within a few weeks. The run-off could then either be rushed through in July, or take place over the summer parliamentary recess.
They would want to have a new leader in place before the party conference and the by-then looming October 31 Brexit deadline.
September 29-October 2 – Conservative Party conference
The Tory gathering in Manchester this autumn will be the natural time for a new leader to take the stage and try to unite the fractured party.
Assuming no way has been found to force a Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament by this point, they will need to spell out how they intend to approach the Brexit process.
Victory for a harder-line Brexiteer such as Mr Johnson could see the party vow to leave the EU in a matter of weeks, with or without a deal.
They will also need to consider whether such a policy can be pushed through the Commons with the current batch of MPs – or whether a general election or another referendum has become unavoidable.
There is also the matter of a ‘stop Boris’ campaign among MPs to stop him taking over, which means it may be left to someone else to deal with Brexit.
October 31 – the new Brexit date
The Brexit extension Mrs May thrashed out with the EU expires on October 31.
Unless another postponement can be agreed, the UK is still scheduled to leave the bloc at this point.
MPs have previously shown a willingness to do anything possible to avoid crashing out of the EU without a deal.
However, the calculation for many Tory MPs might be changed by the mounting threat from the Brexit Party.
With EU leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron increasingly frustrated by the Brexit limbo, the Commons could be forced into a straight choice between revoking Article 50 – which would cancel the process altogether – or no-deal Brexit.
Some hardline Brexiteers including leadership candidates Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom have in recent days suggested that we should leave at this point with or without a deal, instead of seeking a further extension.
EU leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron are increasingly frustrated by the Brexit limbo – raising questions about whether they would agree to another extension beyond October