Australians living in outer-suburban areas and coastal towns are set to decide who becomes prime minister on Saturday.
Melbourne’s south-east, Brisbane’s commuter suburbs, outer Perth, retiree havens an hour’s drive from Sydney and provincial cities in regional Queensland are on Labor’s hit list.
Following redistributions, Labor only needs to win four seats for a clear election victory, while the government needs to pick up Opposition electorates in western Sydney, Townsville, Tasmania and Darwin to have a slim chance of clinging to power.
Australians living in outer-suburban areas and coastal towns are set to decide who becomes prime minister on Saturday (pictured are Opposition Leader Bill Shorten with his wife Chloe and PM Scott Morrison with his spouse Jenny)
Melbourne’s south-east, Brisbane’s commuter suburbs and outer Perth are on Labor’s hit list, while the Liberal Party is hoping to pick up Herbert, Braddon and Solomon from Labor. The Liberal Party is facing a strong challenge from an independent in Warringah
Indian miner Adani and Labor’s plan to strip some share-owning retirees of tax credits could decide some very tight and volatile races.
Then there are the unusual contests, one involving former prime minister Tony Abbott, which could see more independents elected to Parliament, creating more instability if neither side wins a majority in the House of Representatives.
Daily Mail Australia looks at the state of play heading into this Saturday’s election as 16million Australians cast their ballots in 151 electorates, with a majority requiring 76 seats.
Queensland
The Sunshine State is home to eight of Australia’s 20 most at-risk Coalition seats, with four of those government electorates in regional Queensland and another four in Brisbane.
The Townsville-based seat of Herbert is Australia’s most marginal electorate, which Labor’s Cathy O’Toole won by just 37 votes in 2016.
The Nationals electorate seat of Capricornia, taking in Rockhampton, is the government’s most marginal seat with a buffer of just 0.6 per cent (pictured is the local member Michelle Landry with Mr Morrison)
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is hoping the Liberal Party wins back this seat in the state’s north to offset likely losses elsewhere in Queensland.
The Nationals electorate seat of Capricornia, taking in Rockhampton, is the government’s most marginal seat with a buffer of just 0.6 per cent.
The local member Michelle Landry, who is also an assistant minister for children, has joined fellow rebel Nationals in calling for a coal-fired power station.
Renegade backbencher George Christensen, who holds the neighbouring seat of Dawson centred around Mackay, is hoping to defend his 3.4 per cent margin by voicing support for the Adani coal mine, to the chagrin of environmentalists and Greens supporters.
He has been joined by Ken O’Dowd, who holds the Gladstone-based seat of Flynn by a slender 1.1 per cent margin.
Then there is Brisbane where Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton is in the fight of his political life to retain the northern suburbs seat of Dickson, which he has held for the Liberal Party since 2001.
The former police detective, who is defending a margin of 1.8 per cent, had a bad start to his campaign when he questioned the living arrangements of his Labor opponent, Ali France, who lost a leg eight years ago.
In Brisbane, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton (left) is in the fight of his political life to retain the northern suburbs seat of Dickson as he battles against Labor’s Ali France (right)
On the other side of Brisbane, the Liberal Party’s Bert van Manen faces to tough fight to defend his 0.7 per cent margin in Forde, which is home to suburbs including Shailer Park and Yatala.
Then there are the bellwether Brisbane seats of Petrie (1.7 per cent), Bonner (3.4 per cent) and the Cairns-based electorate of Leichhardt (4.1 per cent) which the Labor Party under Kevin Rudd won in 2007, in an election that ended John Howard’s 11-year run as prime minister.
New South Wales
The Premier State is a key battleground, with Sydney producing five of Australia’s last seven PMs during the past 25 years.
A member of this elite group, Mr Abbott, is fighting to retain his northern beaches seat of Warringah, where Winter Olympic skiing medallist Zali Steggall is the betting market favourite.
Former prime minister Tony Abbott (right), is fighting to retain his northern beaches seat of Warringah, where Winter Olympic skiing medallist Zali Steggall (left) is the market favourite
While the former prime minister’s 11.1 per cent margin looks unassailable on paper, he could lose to his independent challenger, campaigning on the issue of climate change, if his primary vote falls below 50 per cent.
This could see Ms Steggall, now a barrister, get elected on Labor and Greens preferences.
This would end Mr Abbott’s 25-year political career as a culturally conservative warrior in an affluent electorate that supported a republic in 1999 and gay marriage in 2017.
While Labor will have little chance in Warringah, it fancies its chances in other coastal seats to the north and south of Sydney, despite their higher-than-average share of retirees.
Baby boomers who own shares but don’t pay income tax would lose their franking credits were Labor to win the May 18 election.
The Liberal Party holds Gilmore, on the NSW South Coast, by a slender 0.8 per cent margin, making it the most at-risk seat in NSW.
Labor hasn’t won this electorate – taking in Kiama and Batemans Bay – since 1993 but it is the favourite against Liberal candidate Warren Mundine, a former national president of the Labor Party.
The indigenous businessman was parachuted in as the Liberal standard-bearer, following local infighting in the party.
Labor hasn’t won Gilmore since 1993 but it is the favourite against Liberal candidate Warren Mundine (pictured left with Mr Morrison), a former national president of the Labor Party
Labor is also targeting Robertson, on the NSW Central Coast, which Liberal MP Lucy Wicks holds by just 1.2 per cent.
This electorate, which covers ritzy Terrigal by the beach and working class Gosford, has been a government seat at every election since 1983.
In Sydney’s multicultural south-west, Immigration Minister David Coleman is the favourite to retain his seat of Banks, despite his 1.5 per cent margin and the electorate’s previous 64-year history as a Labor electorate.
It also overlaps with the state seats of East Hills and Oatley, which swung to the Liberal Party at the March election.
In the more affluent seat of Reid, in Sydney’s inner-west, Labor’s Sam Crosby is the favourite to win back an electorate it lost in 2013 as he competes with TV child psychologist Fiona Martin.
The Liberal member Craig Laundy, whose brother Stu starred in the Bachelorette, is retiring to rejoin his father Arthur’s pub empire.
In western Sydney, the Liberal Party is a narrow Sportsbet favourite to retake the seat of Lindsay, where Labor MP Emma Husar (pictured) is quitting following bullying allegations from her former staff
Across the other side of western Sydney, the Liberal Party is a narrow Sportsbet favourite to retake the seat of Lindsay, where Labor MP Emma Husar is quitting following bullying allegations from her former staff.
Labor is running former state government minister Diane Beamer, a grandmother of seven, but she is likely to struggle with a Newspoll showing the Liberal Party ahead 52 to 48 per cent after preferences.
The Liberal Party’s Dave Sharma, a former ambassador to Israel, is also the favourite to reclaim the wealthy Sydney eastern suburbs seat of Wentworth from independent and gay rights campaigner Kerryn Phelps.
Dr Phelps, a former Australian Medical Association president, won former PM Malcolm Turnbull’s old seat in an October by-election but could soon have the dubious distinction of being the shortest-serving federal MP.
Even if the Coalition picks up Wentworth, it faces losing the NSW mid-north coast seat of Cowper to independent Rob Oakeshott, following the retirement of former Nationals minister Luke Hartsuyker who leaves a 12.6 per cent margin.
Kerryn Phelps won former PM Malcolm Turnbull’s old seat in an October by-election but could soon have the dubious distinction of being the shortest-serving federal MP
The Liberal Party is also in danger in the southern NSW seat of Farrer, where former health minister Sussan Ley has long odds of warding off a challenge from Albury mayor Kevin Mack, another independent, despite her 20.6 per cent margin.
In northern NSW, the National Party’s Kevin Hogan is expected to keep his seat of Page, which extends from Grafton to Lismore, despite his narrow 2.3 per cent margin.
Victoria
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s home state of Victoria holds the key to a Labor victory, regardless of what happens in the rest of Australia.
Labor won 69 seats nationally in 2016 but goes into the 2019 election notionally holding 72 seats, following redistributions in the Great Ocean Road seat of Corangamite and Dunkley, in Melbourne’s south-east.
That means local Liberal members Sarah Henderson, a former host of Australia’s Most Wanted, and Chris Crewther have to increase their vote just to stay in Parliament.
The Liberal member for Corangamite Sarah Henderson,a former host of Australia’s Most Wanted, needs to increase her vote just to stay in Parliament
The suburbs of Melbourne are shaping up as a bloodbath for the Liberal Party, just six months after it was slaughtered at a state election with historically strong swings to Labor Premier Daniel Andrews’s government.
Labor is the betting market favourite to take the seat of Chisholm, which Julia Banks won in 2016 before quitting the Liberal Party and accusing it of bullying women.
She is now running against Health Minister Greg Hunt in the Mornington Peninsula seat of Flinders, 100km away.
The electorate she is abandoning takes in the middle-class suburbs of Box Hill and Burwood, and has a three per cent margin.
In an Australian first, both major parties are running Asian candidates.
Labor’s Jennifer Yang and the Liberal Party’s Gladys Liu are of Chinese heritage.
In nearby La Trobe, Liberal MP Jason Wood, a former police detective, will have a hard time arresting his 3.2 per cent margin, with Labor set to defeat him for the second time since he was first elected to Parliament in 2004.
Jennifer Yang, Labor’s candidate for Chisholm, is the favourite to become Australia’s first federal lower house MP with a Chinese surname
In another outer suburb Michael Sukkar is also in danger in his seat of Deakin, despite his heftier 6.5 per cent buffer.
In neighbouring Casey, Speaker Tony Smith is regarded as being a safer bet despite his narrower 4.6 per cent margin.
The Liberal Party is likely to have more luck in northern Victoria, where independent MP Cathy McGowan is retiring – six years after defeating right-wing Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella.
Helen Haines has long odds of becoming the first-ever independent candidate to succeed another independent in the House of Representatives.
Western Australia
Western Australia could also spill more Liberal Party blood.
Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt is particularly vulnerable in his outer-suburban and semi-rural electorate of Hasluck in Perth’s outer east.
Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt is particularly vulnerable in his outer-suburban and semi-rural electorate of Hasluck in Perth’s outer east.
The first indigenous member of the House of Representatives holds this seat by a mere 2.1 per cent.
Labor is also targeting Swan in Perth’s inner-south, held by backbencher Steve Irons on a 3.6 per cent margin.
It is running Hannah Beazley, the daughter of former Opposition Leader Kim Beazley who is now the Governor of WA.
He was also the member for Swan from 1980 to 1996, before switching to the safer seat of Brand.
Were the betting market odds to come true, Hannah Beazley would be the third generation in her family to sit in federal Parliament, following in the political footsteps of her father and grandfather.
The Northern Territory’s Country Liberal Party is also running a spirited campaign in the vast outback seat of Lingiari with high-profile indigenous town councillor and anti-domestic violence campaigner Jacinta Price as its candidate
Labor is also targeting the beachside seat of Stirling, hoping to win it for the first time since 2001 by overcoming the Liberal Party’s 6.2 per cent margin.
Former justice minister Michael Keenan, who was demoted to a more junior portfolio last year, is retiring from politics after 15 years.
Rest of Australia
The Liberal Party is targeting the regional Tasmanian Labor-held seats of Braddon and Bass, held on narrow margins of 1.8 per cent and 5.5 per cent, respectively.
It also has an outside chance of taking from Labor the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has a 6.1 per cent margin.
The Northern Territory’s Country Liberal Party is also running a spirited campaign in the vast outback seat of Lingiari with high-profile indigenous town councillor and anti-domestic violence campaigner Jacinta Price as its candidate.
Her opponent, left-wing Labor frontbencher Warren Snowdon, has a safe 8.1 per cent margin.
In Adelaide’s inner-south, the Opposition and left-wing activist group GetUp! were targeting the beachside seat of Boothby, which Labor hasn’t won since 1946.
Right-wing Liberal MP Nicolle Flint, however, is the favourite to prevail despite her 2.8 per cent margin.
The Liberal Party is also favoured to keep retiring Defence Minister Christopher Pyne’s neighbouring electorate of Sturt, despite the 5.4 per cent margin.
In Adelaide’s inner-south, GetUp! has targeted right-wing Liberal MP Nicolle Flint (pictured right), however, is the favourite to prevail in Boothby despite her 2.8 per cent margin