The surprise state expected to see a population boom that no one saw coming

By STEPHEN JOHNSON, ECONOMICS REPORTER FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA

Published: 09:14 GMT, 25 March 2025 | Updated: 10:25 GMT, 25 March 2025

Victoria is expected to see a population boom in coming years as fewer people move to Queensland and Western Australian from other parts of the country.

Melbourne was the only big city market where house prices went backwards in 2024, as other capitals saw double-digit increases.

Victoria has also been struggling economically since Covid, with Melbourne the world’s most locked down city under former Labor premier Daniel Andrews.

Despite having Australia’s second biggest population after Sydney, Melbourne is only Australia’s fourth most expensive market to buy a house, behind Brisbane and Canberra.

But the Treasury Budget papers are now predicting thousands more people will be moving to Victoria from other states in coming years and marginal, outer Melbourne electorates could decide this year’s election.

Victoria was also the only state forecast to have an increase in net interstate migration, with 2,800 new arrivals predicted in 2025-26 growing to 3,700 in 2026-27.

This would occur as Queensland’s interstate migration rate slowed from 23,200 to 20,400.

Western Australia, the nation’s fastest growing state, was tipped to see interstate migration flows plunge from 4,200 to 1,400.

Victoria is expected to see a population boom in coming years as fewer people move to Queensland and Western Australian from other parts of the country (pictured is Melbourne’s Flinders Street Station)

This would be occurring as South Australia’s interstate exodus grew from 2,900 to 3,400.

The exodus from NSW was expected to slow from 24,300 to 21,000, as fewer Sydneysiders left for another part of Australia.

Tasmania was tipped to go from losing 700 people to other states to gaining 200 new people.

The Australian Capital Territory was forecast to go from losing 200 people to gaining 300 new residents from other states.

The Northern Territory’s instate exodus was forecast to moderate from 2,220 to 1,500.

The federal government is expected to raise $99.3billion in revenue from the GST in 2025-26, with $95.151billion of that to be redistributed to the states and territories.

Victoria gets the biggest share of GST revenue, of 27.5 per cent or $26.146billion in the next financial year.

The state will receive more than the NSW share of 26.7 per cent or $25.436billion.

This is despite Victoria’s population of 7.165million being smaller than NSW’s 8.646million.

Queensland will be a distant third with 17.4 per cent of the GST, or $16.578billion in a state with 5.732million.

The Treasury Budget papers are now predicting thousands more people will be moving to Victoria from other states in coming years (pictured is Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Melbourne with cartoonist Mark Knight)

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The surprise state expected to see a population boom that no one saw coming

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