Theresa May will face a Tory no confidence vote tonight

Theresa May’s woes deepened dramatically today as a Tory no-confidence vote was triggered. 

Eurosceptics have secured the 48 letters from MPs needed to force a ballot that could end the PM’s time as leader.

Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the powerful 1922 committee, said the threshold had been ‘exceeded’ and Mrs May was eager to resolve the issue ‘rapidly’.

He said the PM will deliver a speech to MPs at 5pm before the voting begins. 

‘In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 1800 and 2000 on Wednesday December 12,’ he said.

‘The votes will be counted immediately afterwards and an announcement will be made as soon as possible in the evening.’ 

Cabinet ministers immediate rallied to try and shore up Mrs May, with Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Amber Rudd and Brandon Lewis making clear they will be support her.

But as the Tories plunged into outright civil war, veteran MP Sir Bernard Jenkin declared that he will be voting to get Mrs May out. 

Senior backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg said the premier’s Brexit plan would ‘bring down the government if carried forward’ and the party ‘will not tolerate it’. 

‘Conservatives must now answer whether they wish to draw ever closer to an election under Mrs May’s leadership. In the national interest, she must go,’ he said.  

Mrs May’s allies have repeatedly insisted she will fight any effort to oust her – but her position has weakened significantly over recent weeks and may now be under serious threat.   

She can stay on if she wins the confidence ballot by just one vote, and would theoretically be immune from challenge for another 12 months.

But in reality anything short of a handsome victory will make it almost impossible for her to cling on.  

Theresa May’s woes deepened dramatically today amid signs she is on the verge of facing a Tory no-confidence vote. She is pictured in Berlin having met Chancellor Merkel

Cabinet ministers immediate rallied to try and shore up Mrs May, with Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Amber Rudd and Brandon Lewis making clear they will be support her

Cabinet ministers immediate rallied to try and shore up Mrs May, with Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Amber Rudd and Brandon Lewis making clear they will be support her

Home Secretary Sajid Javid (left) is among the contenders to challenge Theresa May, while Jacob Rees-Mogg (right) has submitted a letter of no confidence

Rebels were jubilant that they had finally secured the numbers last night after Cabinet minister Owen Paterson joined efforts to oust Mrs May in the wake of her humiliating decision to drop a Commons vote on her Brexit deal. 

One senior Brexiteer told MailOnline Mr Paterson lining up with the rebels was a ‘big moment’ after the mutiny embarrassingly failed to gain traction before. 

‘We have had some false starts, but this looks like the green light,’ they said.

Previously veteran Eurosceptics have appeared unwilling to sign up to an all-out revolt, despite deep unhappiness with Mrs May’s Brexit plans.   

The development risks throwing the government into turmoil just as Mrs May is scrambling to wring more concessions out of the EU.

She spent yesterday jetting between capitals, holding talks with Dutch PM Mark Rutte in The Hague, German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, and Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels.  

How can Theresa May be ousted as Tory leader?

A Tory leadership contest can be called in one of two ways – if the leader resigns or if MPs force and win a vote of no confidence in them.

It is not the same as a vote of confidence in the government – which happens on the floor of the Commons and involves all MPs. 

Calling votes of no confidence is the responsibility of the chairman of the 1922 Committee, which includes all backbench Conservative MPs.

Chairman Graham Brady is obliged to call a vote if 15 per cent of Tory MPs write to him calling for one – currently 48 MPs. 

The process is secret and only Mr Brady knows how many letters he has received.

Once triggered, the ballot can be organised very quickly – potentially even the next day.

The no-confidence vote is purely on whether the leader should stay in place or not, rather than a contest.

Crucially, if the incumbent receives more votes in support than opposed they cannot be challenged for 12 months.

The procedure was last used in 2003 when Iain Duncan Smith was removed as Tory leader.

If the leader is ousted, they typically remain as Prime Minister until a successor is appointed and ready to be confirmed by the Queen.

Any MP – apart from the ousted leader – is eligible to stand in the subsequent contest.

Conservative MPs hold a series of ballots to whittle the list of contenders down to two, with the lowest placed candidate dropping out in each round.

The final two candidates are then offered to the Tory membership at large for an election. 

Some activists have called for changes so it is easier for contenders to reach the final stage.

They have suggested that the membership should get to choose between any candidates who get support from at least 20 other MPs.

It is unclear whether she will stick to her plan to travel to Ireland for talks with Leo Varadkar later, and then go straight on to a crucial EU summit in the Belgian capital on Thursday and Friday.

There were signs Mrs May was already bracing for a no confidence vote last night after she returned to Downing Street, with chief whip Julian Smith seen going into No10. 

One MP said last night that pressing ahead with the trips would have worrying echoes of Margaret Thatcher leaving the UK as she faced a leadership challenge in 1990. 

In his letter to Sir Graham, published in The Daily Telegraph, Mr Paterson said the Prime Minister had failed to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, tried to bounce her ministers into supporting her and approached negotiations like a ‘feeble and unworthy’ supplicant.

‘These mistakes have eroded trust in the Government, to the point where I and many others can no longer take the Prime Minister at her word,’ he wrote.

‘She has repeatedly said ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’, but it is clear her objective was to secure a deal at any cost.

‘The conclusion is now inescapable that the Prime Minister is the blockage to the wide-ranging free trade agreement offered by (European Council president Donald) Tusk which would be in the best interests of the country and command the support of Parliament.’ 

It comes just hours after a former minister warned Brexit is ‘certain to fail’ while she remains party leader.

Steve Baker urged colleagues to be ‘brave’ and send letters to the powerful Conservative 1922 committee that would start the process of evicting the PM. 

He also insisted Mrs May should consider her own position after being forced to postpone a crunch Commons Brexit vote to avoid humiliating defeat.

The brutal attack from the former Brexit minister came as the tally of MPs confirmed as having sent no-confidence letters to 1922  chair Sir Graham Brady hit 28, with Crispin Blunt adding himself to the list.

There is said to have been a surge in numbers during the day, with Mr Paterson’s decision apparently swaying wavering MPs.  

When the figure reaches 48 a formal no-confidence vote of Tory MPs is triggered, in which Mrs May would need to gain majority support to survive.

The Conservative process is separate from a no-confidence vote in Parliament, where MPs of all political stripes take part. 

George Freeman, a former Downing Street policy chief, desperately urged MPs today not to send letters to Sir Graham, warning of the damage to party and country.

The former Tory minister pleaded: ‘To any colleagues thinking of signing their letter to Mr Brady to trigger a leadership election, I beg you not to. The country would never forgive us.’

A leadership contest would throw Brexit as well as the Tories into turmoil. Mrs May decided earlier this week not to put her deal to a vote, accepting it would be heavily defeated.

She announced she would try to secure fresh concessions on the Irish border backstop, and would hold a fresh parliamentary vote by January 21. A challenge would throw that calendar into chaos.

Theresa May met with Michel Barnier (pictured left) and Jean-Claude Juncker during a frenetic day of travel as she scrambles to try to win concessions that will buy off Tory rebels 

Theresa May met with Michel Barnier (pictured left) and Jean-Claude Juncker during a frenetic day of travel as she scrambles to try to win concessions that will buy off Tory rebels 

Mrs May also held crucial talks with Angela Merkel in Berlin (pictured) earlier as she begs for help winning over furious MPs

Mrs May also held crucial talks with Angela Merkel in Berlin (pictured) earlier as she begs for help winning over furious MPs

Rivals have been brazenly jostling for position to succeed her in the Tory top job. 

Secretary Sajid Javid fuelled speculation he could seek to replace Mrs May by giving an extraordinary interview last night setting out his vision for the country. 

Boris Johnson also thrust himself into the spotlight by talking about his weight loss.

Any contest would be held as soon as possible. However, with Mrs May due to be out of the country on Thursday and Friday, it might have to wait until Monday.

A Tory former minister said: ‘Things have really shifted in the past week and I think she would lose that vote now.

‘I and others have been holding back from writing letters because of fears she would win a confidence vote, but the mood is shifting among MPs and our members.’

However, Mrs May’s critics remain divided on who should replace her if they succeed, with Dominic Raab and Esther McVey also often cited as candidates by Brexiteers.  

Mr Baker and Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the European Research Group (ERG) bloc of Tory Eurosceptics, have been urging MPs to replace Mrs May for weeks.

But despite a big push last month they embarrassingly failed to achieve the required level of support for a challenge. 

Mr Rees-Mogg said yesterday that Mrs May must ‘govern or quit’. 

And Mr Baker told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘Of course, we have all taken a bit of a bruising on this and it is a grave decision for every colleague to make.

‘But what I would say to my colleagues is: you now face the certainty of failure with Theresa May, you must be brave and make the right decision to change prime minister, and change prime minister now.’

Mrs May is on a frantic a last-ditch mission to salvage her Brexit deal today as the Tory civil war rages at home.

She is meeting Dutch counterpart Mark Rutte for breakfast in the Hague, before heading for crucial talks with Angela Merkel in Berlin.

Mrs May, pictured with Dutch PM Mark Rutte today, is on a frantic a last-ditch mission to salvage her Brexit deal today as the Tory civil war rages at home

Mrs May, pictured with Dutch PM Mark Rutte today, is on a frantic a last-ditch mission to salvage her Brexit deal today as the Tory civil war rages at home

Who has sent letters of no confidence in May?

Letters of no confidence in Theresa May are confidential – but some of her strongest critics have gone public.

If 48 letters are sent a vote is called.

This is who has definitely sent a letter: 

  1. Jacob Rees-Mogg, North East Somerset, Jacob.reesmogg.mp@parliament.uk 
  2. Steve Baker, Wycombe,  steve.baker.mp@parliament.uk 
  3. Sheryll Murray, South East Cornwall, sheryll.murray.mp@parliament.uk
  4. Anne-Marie Morris, Newton Abbott, annemarie.morris.mp@parliament.uk
  5. Lee Rowley, North East Derbyshire,  lee.rowley.mp@parliament.uk
  6. Henry Smith, Crawley, henry.smith.mp@parliament.uk
  7. Simon Clarke, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland,  simon.clarke.mp@parliament.uk
  8. Peter Bone, Wellingborough,  bonep@parliament.uk
  9. James Duddridge, Rochford and Southend East,  james@jamesduddridge.com
  10. Philip Davies, Shipley,  daviesp@parliament.uk
  11. Andrea Jenkyns, Morley and Outwood,  andrea.jenkyns.mp@parliament.uk
  12. Andrew Bridgen, North West Leicestershire, andrew.bridgen.mp@parliament.uk
  13. Nadine Dorries, Mid Bedfordshire,  dorriesn@parliament.uk 
  14. Laurence Robertson, Tewkesbury, robertsonl@parliament.uk 
  15. Martin Vickers, Cleethorpes,  martin.vickers.mp@parliament.uk
  16. Ben Bradley, Mansfield,  ben.bradley.mp@parliament.uk
  17. Adam Holloway, Gravesham,  hollowaya@parliament.uk
  18. John Whittingdale, Maldon,  john.whittingdale.mp@parliament.uk
  19. Maria Caulfield, Lewes,  maria.caulfield.mp@parliament.uk
  20. Mark Francois, Rayleigh and Wickford,  mark.francois.mp@parliament.uk
  21. David Jones, Clwyd West, david.jones@parliament.uk
  22. Marcus Fysh, Yeovil,  marcus.fysh.mp@parliament.uk
  23. Chris Green,  Bolton West,  chris.green.mp@parliament.uk
  24. Zac Goldsmith, Richmond Park, zac@zacgoldsmith.com
  25. Bill Cash, Stone, cashw@parliament.uk
  26. Philip Hollobone, Kettering,  philip.hollobone.mp@parliament.uk
  27. Andrew Lewer, Northampton South, andrew.lewer.mp@parliament.uk
  28. Crispin Blunt, Reigate,  crispinbluntmp@parliament.uk 
  29. Owen Paterson, Shropshire Patersono@parliament.uk 

Who could replace Theresa May? As Brexiteers move against the Prime Minister because of her deal ‘betrayal’ these are some of the leading contenders to take over

Theresa May looks certain to face a vote of no confidence after her Brexit deal was rejected out of hand by Eurosceptics.

If she loses the Tory Party will launch a leadership contest to replace her – a process that will likely take weeks with just months until Brexit Day.

These are some of the leading contenders to replace her:

Dominic Raab

How did they vote on Brexit?

Leave, with a second tier role campaigning for Vote Leave.

What is their view now?

Mr Raab was installed as Brexit Secretary to deliver the Chequers plan but sensationally resigned today saying the deal is not good enough.

What are their chances?

Being the first to resign from the Cabinet has put a rocket booster under Mr Raab’s chances, fuelling his popularity among the hardline Brexiteers. May struggle to overcome bigger beasts and better known figures. 

Newly installed as Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab (pictured in Downing Street on Tuesday) is trying to negotiate Theresa May's Brexit deal

Newly installed as Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab (pictured in Downing Street on Tuesday) is trying to negotiate Theresa May’s Brexit deal

Boris Johnson

How did they vote on Brexit?

Led the Vote Leave campaign alongside Michael Gove.

What is their view now?

Hard line Brexiteer demanding a clean break from Brussels. The former foreign secretary is violently opposed to Theresa May’s Chequers plan and a leading voice demanding a Canada-style trade deal.

What are their chances?

Rated as second favourite by the bookies, Mr Johnson’s biggest challenge will be navigating the Tory leadership rules. He may be confident of winning a run-off among Tory members but must first be selected as one of the top two candidates by Conservative MPs. 

Rated as second favourite by the bookies, Boris Johnson's (pictured at Tory conference last month) biggest challenge will be navigating the Tory leadership rules

Rated as second favourite by the bookies, Boris Johnson’s (pictured at Tory conference last month) biggest challenge will be navigating the Tory leadership rules

Sajid Javid

How did they vote on Brexit?

Remain but kept a low profile in the referendum.

What is their view now?

Pro delivering Brexit and sceptical of the soft Brexit options.

What are their chances?

Probably the leading candidate from inside the Cabinet after his dramatic promotion to Home Secretary. Mr Javid has set himself apart from Mrs May on a series of policies, notably immigration.

Sajid Javid (pictured in Downing Street) is probably the leading candidate from inside the Cabinet after his dramatic promotion to Home Secretary

Sajid Javid (pictured in Downing Street) is probably the leading candidate from inside the Cabinet after his dramatic promotion to Home Secretary

Jeremy Hunt

How did they vote on Brexit?

Remain.

What is their view now?

The Foreign Secretary claims the EU Commission’s ‘arrogance’ has made him a Brexiteer.

What are their chances?

Another top contender inside Cabinet, Mr Hunt’s stock rose during his record-breaking stint at the Department of Health and won a major promotion to the Foreign Office after Mr Johnson’s resignation. Widely seen as a safe pair of hands which could be an advantage if the contest comes suddenly. 

Jeremy Hunt's stock rose during his record-breaking stint at the Department of Health and won a major promotion to the Foreign Office after Mr Johnson's resignation

Jeremy Hunt’s stock rose during his record-breaking stint at the Department of Health and won a major promotion to the Foreign Office after Mr Johnson’s resignation

David Davis

How did they vote on Brexit?

Leave.

What is their view now?

Leave and a supporter of scrapping Mrs May’s plan and pursuing a Canada-style trade deal with the EU.

What are their chances?

The favoured choice of many hard Brexiteers. Seen as a safer pair of hands than Mr Johnson and across the detail of the current negotiation after two years as Brexit Secretary. He could be promoted a caretaker to see through Brexit before standing down.

Unlikely to be the choice of Remain supporters inside the Tory Party – and has been rejected by the Tory membership before, in the 2005 race against David Cameron. 

David Davis (pictured last month at a Brexiteer policy launch) is seen as a safer pair of hands than Mr Johnson and across the detail of the current negotiation after two years as Brexit Secretary

David Davis (pictured last month at a Brexiteer policy launch) is seen as a safer pair of hands than Mr Johnson and across the detail of the current negotiation after two years as Brexit Secretary

Amber Rudd

How did they vote on Brexit?

Remain. Represented Britain Stronger in Europe in the TV debates.

What is their view now?

Strongly remain and supportive of a second referendum – particularly given a choice between that and no deal.

What are their chances?

Popular among Conservative MPs as the voice of Cameron-style Toryism, Ms Rudd is still seen as a contender despite resigning amid the Windrush scandal – and she was boosted further by her return to Cabinet as Work and Pensions Secretary on Friday night. She is badly hampered by having a tiny majority in her Hastings constituency and would not be able to unite the Tory party in a sudden contest over the Brexit negotiation. 

Popular among Conservative MPs as the voice of Cameron-style Toryism, Amber Rudd (pictured at Tory conference last month) is still seen as a contender despite resigning amid the Windrush scandal

Popular among Conservative MPs as the voice of Cameron-style Toryism, Amber Rudd (pictured at Tory conference last month) is still seen as a contender despite resigning amid the Windrush scandal

Penny Mordaunt

How did they vote on Brexit?

Leave

What is their view now?

Leave and subject of persistent rumour she could be the next to quit Cabinet over Mrs May’s Brexit deal.

What are their chances?

Possible dark horse in the contest, Ms Mordaunt is not well known to the public but is seen as a contender in Westminster. She has been encouraged to join the Cabinet revolt over the Brexit deal and could resign within hours. 

Possible dark horse in the contest, Penny Mordaunt (pictured in Downing Street) is not well known to the public but is seen as a contender in Westminster

Possible dark horse in the contest, Penny Mordaunt (pictured in Downing Street) is not well known to the public but is seen as a contender in Westminster

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