Tonight’s seven amendments: What plans are on the table and how likely are they to pass?

MPs face a choice of seven Plan Bs for Brexit in the Commons tonight as the Government scrambles for a way forward on Brexit.

Theresa May has endorsed a plan from Tory Sir Graham Brady demanding changes to the backstop in the divorce deal.

The hope is securing a majority for the demand would show Brussels the deal can pass if the backstop is legally time limited.

Remain supporters are pushing a plan from Yvette Cooper to block no deal by delaying Brexit if there is not an agreement by February 26.

There are other amendments from Tory Dominic Grieve, Tory Caroline Spelman, Labour’s Rachel Reeves, plus Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and SNP leader Ian Blackford.

Votes will start at 7pm and are expected to take up to two hours – meaning in theory there could be clarity by 9pm. 

It is possible MPs could reject everything and leave Westminster engulfed in renewed chaos. 

SIR GRAHAM BRADY’S PLAN TO FIX THE BACKSTOP BY DEMANDING CHANGES FROM THE EU – BACKED BY MAY

WHAT IT DOES: Proposes replacing the Northern Ireland backstop with ‘alternative arrangements’ to avoid a hard border. Also supports leaving with a deal.

WHOSE PLAN? Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee.

HOW IT WORKS: Allows Mrs May to go to Brussels and say the EU must make concessions on the backstop or get rid of it.

COULD IT SUCCEED? Possibly. The Government is ordering Tory MPs to vote for it and the DUP are also expected to vote yes. 

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? Mrs May would go to Brussels and say changing the backstop would save her deal.

YVETTE COOPER’S PLAN TO DELAY BREXIT IF THERE IS NOT A DEAL

WHAT IT DOES: Forces ministers to extend Article 50 beyond March 29 to stop No Deal.

WHOSE PLAN? Labour’s Yvette Cooper, former Tory ministers Nick Boles and Sir Oliver Letwin.

HOW IT WORKS: Ministers lose the power to decide what is debated on February 5, which passes to backbench MPs. Miss Cooper proposes a law forcing Mrs May to ask for a delay on Brexit if No Deal is agreed by February 26.

COULD IT SUCCEED? Labour will back it and with enough votes from Tory rebels, yes.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? Mrs May would lose control of Brexit with No Deal off the table

DOMINIC GRIEVE’S PLAN TO HAND POWER TO MPS

WHAT IT DOES: Give control over Parliamentary business to MPs.

WHOSE PLAN? Dominic Grieve QC, former attorney general and ardent Remainer, and MPs who want a second referendum.

HOW IT WORKS: Government loses power over the Commons every Tuesday from February 12 to March 26 so backbench MPs could vote on Brexit. Could delay Article 50 or change the deal to include a customs union or second referendum.

COULD IT SUCCEED? Could pass with the support of pro-Remain Tories, Labour backing.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? A second referendum would be the most likely outcome

DAME CAROLINE SPELMAN’S PLAN TO RULE OUT NO DEAL

WHAT IT DOES: Stops the UK leaving without a deal.

WHOSE PLAN: Former Tory Cabinet minister Caroline Spelman and Labour MP Jack Dromey.

HOW IT WORKS: Rejects No Deal.   

COULD IT SUCCEED? Yes if enough Tory MPs vote for it.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? Mrs May’s main bargaining chip would be gone – likely second referendum.

RACHEL REEVES’ PLAN TO DELAY BREXIT IF THERE IS NO DEAL

WHAT IT DOES: Just like the Cooper plan, this demands the Government ask for an extension to Article 50 if there is no deal by February 26 – but does so only in political terms without trying to change the law.  

WHOSE PLAN: Labour MP Rachel Reeves  

HOW IT WORKS? Makes a political statement to put pressure on the Government. 

COULD IT SUCCEED? Unlikely as it no public support from Tory MPs. Could get over the top by accident if Remain Tories vote for it anyway.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? Mrs May’s main bargaining chip would be limited by a new deadline – hampering her hopes of changing the deal. 

JEREMY CORBYN’S PLAN TO FUDGE THE VOTE BY DEMANDING CHANGE BUT HINTING AT A REFERENDUM

WHAT IT DOES: Demands changes to the deal and hints at a second referendum.

WHOSE PLAN? Corbyn, Labour frontbench.

HOW IT WORKS: Ministers must let Parliament discuss No Deal, and proposes staying in a permanent customs union. If that fails, it suggests a second referendum.

COULD IT SUCCEED? Highly unlikely, because it won’t win support from Tory rebels. 

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT?  A second referendum would become the most likely outcome of Brexit.

IAN BLACKFORD’S PLAN TO MAKE A POINT ABOUT SCOTLAND

WHAT IT DOES: Notes that the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and Commons all voted against the deal and Scotland voted Remain 

WHOSE PLAN? SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford 

HOW IT WORKS: Makes a political declaration about Scotland’s right to determine its own future.

COULD IT SUCCEED? No. 

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? Nothing.   

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