The 2020 Tour de France begins in Nice on Saturday, without a British contender for victory for the first time in almost a decade, and with the shadow of spiralling rates of Covid-19 hanging over it.
The omissions of four-time winner Chris Froome, 2018 champion Geraint Thomas and sprint king Mark Cavendish, cycling royalty and mainstays of the British cycling revolution that has swept through the Tour, will encourage rivals who have been frustrated for so long.
But this year’s race will also inhabit a bubble of anxiety and expectation. The anxiety centres on the revelation that the Tour organisers will evict teams from this year’s race if they have any two members of their entourage displaying symptoms or testing positive for Covid-19, while the home nation’s expectations are focused on Thibaut Pinot, who quit last year’s race in tears as he seemed poised for glory.
Brit Adam Yates is likely to target stage wins, as he rides his final Tour for Mitchelton-Scott
In a document sent to the teams, the Tour’s promoters ASO made it clear that, if two persons or more from the same team do present ‘strongly suspect symptoms’ or test positive, the team in question will be ‘expelled’ from the Tour — and the team’s personnel ‘will have their accreditation withdrawn’.
The shadow of infection looms large over the Tour, just as it does over much of Europe. With strict protocols in place, those in the Tour convoy will be shut in, masked up and tested on a regular basis.
Spectators will be closely monitored to ensure social distancing and the gendarmerie will be enforcing mask wearing, particularly in the high mountains where much of the route is likely to be totally sealed off, even to die-hard fans.
Chris Froome (right) has been left out of Team Ineos’ eight-man squad for the Tour de France
2018 champion Geraint Thomas (left) has also been omitted due to struggles in recent form
The protocols will mean that this year’s race is balanced on a knife edge. Nice, the setting for next weekend’s Grand Depart, currently has one of the highest rates of infection in France. Paris, where the Tour is scheduled to end on September 20, has also been declared a high-risk zone.
Pinot’s chances of finally breaking the French hex on Tour victory — the last home winner was in 1985 — have been boosted by the absence of both Froome and Thomas, and the fitness doubts hanging over the outstanding favourite, Primoz Roglic, of Slovenia, winner of last year’s Vuelta a Espana.
Roglic had appeared unstoppable until last weekend when, in a spell of frenetic racing dominated by high-speed crashes, he was one of those to hit the tarmac. It was enough to force him to quit the prestigious Criterium du Dauphine race on the final day, despite leading.
On Friday, Roglic seemed uncertain over his participation in the Tour. ‘I honestly thought I would feel better by now after the crash at the Dauphine,’ he said. ‘Let’s see what the upcoming days bring. I’m staying optimistic.’
Instead of Froome or Thomas, Team Ineos — rebranded for the Tour as the Ineos Grenadiers — will be led by Colombian Egan Bernal, winner of last year’s race, with a supporting role for Richard Carapaz of Ecuador, who won the 2019 Giro d’Italia.
Luke Rowe is the only Briton in the team’s line-up, but team boss Dave Brailsford this week maintained his squad was a ‘global team with a British heart’.
Adam Yates, meanwhile, who will join Brailsford’s team next year, is likely to target stage wins, as he rides his final Tour for Mitchelton-Scott.
But whatever the final outcome, with less than a week to go, the number of professional riders testing positive for Covid-19 is increasing, emphasising that maintaining the Tour’s bubble as the race rolls across France for three weeks, will be a stress-inducing, high-wire act.
The organisers, TV companies and most of the teams fervently hope the race will make it to Paris. If not, and the French Government are forced to step in to halt the Tour, it will be a disaster, not just for this year’s race, but also for a sport with a fragile business model.