Some experts believe it’s because they have nothing lose. The economy is expected to shrink by six per cent this year, on top of a 3.9 per cent contraction last year, according to the IMF.
In the pre-Trump sanctions year of 2017 however, the country recorded 3.8 per cent growth. As sanction getting tougher, the likelihood is Iran will become more aggressive and less risk averse.
The other major factor for Iran is oil, and this could be their sign of deterrence against the US ratcheting up pressure on Iranian oil exports.
According to Crisis Group, this method of ransoming the oil market could also benefit the Iranian economy by driving up shipping insurance premiums, helping recoup the cost of US sanctions.
Other strategy experts say that the Iranians are trying to call Trump’s bluff by undermining him through small isolated incidents like the tanker.
‘It’s all about careful calibration and plausible deniability,’ Hussein Ibish, of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told CNBC.
Smoke pours from the Norwegian-owned oil tanker on Thursday after it was hit by an explosion near the UAE and Iran in an apparent attack which has put the Middle East on high alert
Acts like the explosion have not resulted in civilian casualties, and so could be a way to force Trump to reveal his future strategy. The President recently told Time magazine that the incident would ‘not be worth’ going to war over.
It could also be taken as a sign that Iran won’t play fair if they are disadvantaged on oil exports. The Eurasia Group wrote in a June briefing that the sabotaging of the four tankers is an effort by Iran to demonstrate ‘peace and security in the Gulf is contingent on its own economic stability’.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway which is bordered by Iran to the north, accounts for 30 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil traffic.
But despite the smart game-playing, these attacks on US drones and ship could still blow up in the face of the rogue state. When Iran was caught laying sea mines in the 1980s, one of which hit a US frigate, half of the country’s Navy was wiped out. Could it happen again?
‘The status quo is not sustainable for Iran,’ says Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute. ‘So they have the means, the motives and the opportunity… They do not seek a war, exactly, but they are obviously willing to risk one in order to get out of an impossible conundrum.’