Blistering summer heatwaves with potentially lethal consequences could hit Britain every year, according to a shocking new study of future climate change.
According to experts, even if global temperature increases are limited by the 2°C (3.6°F) target set out in the Paris Agreement, the mercury could continue to hit record-highs across the United Kingdom every year.
This year’s heatwave has already seen a spike in the number of deaths linked to the scorching heat across Britain.
So called ‘Furnace Fridays’ – named when record temperatures hit the country at the end of the working week earlier this summer – could also become a regular occurrence, the findings show.
Reducing global temperatures by cutting greenhouse gas emissions is the only way to stop an increase in frequency for future heatwaves, experts cautioned.
Blistering summer heatwaves with potentially deadly results could hit Britain every year, according to a shocking new study of future climate change. The Dorset coast is crowded as the hot weather attracts people to Weymouth to enjoy Furnace Friday on August 3, as temperatures continued to soar (stock image)
Dr Dann Mitchell (pictured), who was involved in the study, said: ‘As the extreme European heatwave persists into August, with notable droughts, wildfires and impacts on human health, the question being asked is how often would a similar heatwave re-occur in the future?’
The claims are made by scientists from the University of Bristol, who used the computer simulations from around the world to forecast the probability of future occurrences of a heatwave with the same temperature as 2018 under predicted changes to the global temperatures.
The researchers used the future temperature targets set out in the Paris Agreement, which aims to stabilise global temperatures to 1.5°C (2.7°F) or 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial temperatures.
If temperatures increase by 1.5°C (2.7°F), such heatwaves would occur every other year, the University of Bristol researchers’ models revealed.
However, if temperatures worldwide increase by 2°C (3.6°F), nearly every summer will experience heatwaves at least as hot as this year, experts cautioned.
Dr Dann Mitchell, who was involved in the study, said: ‘As the extreme European heatwave persists into August, with notable droughts, wildfires and impacts on human health, the question being asked is how often would a similar heatwave re-occur in the future?’
‘We show that in our current climate, heat waves similar in temperature to the present one would occur about once every five to six years, on average.
‘Our climate models are not perfect, and they cannot capture all aspects of the current heatwave, but they can give us a reasonable estimate as to what to expect in the future.’
Experts used state of the art global climate models taken from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (Happi) project.
This was developed by an international partnership of scientists around the world, including the UK, Japan, the USA and Germany.
About the impact of such changes, Dr Mitchell said a clear and detectable increase in heat-related mortality is one aspect that will be affected.
Experts found that, even if global temperature increases are limited by the targets set out in the Paris Agreement the mercury could continue to hit record highs every year. If temperatures increase by 1.5°C (2.7°F), such heatwaves would occur every other year. If they rose by a 2°C (3.6°F), nearly all summers would likely have heatwaves that are at least as hot as 2018’s
Hampstead Heath in north London is packed with people on Friday, August 3, looking to cool off from the scorching conditions by taking a dip in the pond (stock image)
So called ‘Furnace Fridays’ – named after two consecutive ends to the working week which saw unusually high temperatures – may also become a regular occurrence. This graphic shows that temperatures in the southeast of England reached almost 25°C (77°F) on July 24, around 3°C (5.4°F) higher than the July average
Migration is another serious problem, he says, with people in less developed countries migrating from rural to urban areas during long heatwaves and droughts.
Agricultural practises may also change, with different crops potentially being more suitable for affected areas, or optimal planting times changing.
In very hot and humid regions, it may be impractical for people to be working in direct sunlight, so productivity may decrease as well.
Speaking to MailOnline about what can be done to curtail this warming, he added: ‘Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is key.
‘The best way to make this happen is to get our politicians to work together, and to set plans in place for way beyond their time in office. A global inter-governmental approach to emissions reduction is the way forward.
‘There are simple things that can be done to reduce your individual carbon footprint as well. Swapping some of your meat-based meals for vegetarian based meals will help, for instance.
‘If possible, using a bicycle rather than car to commute to work has benefits not just for the environment, but also your body.’
Britain has been in the grips of roasting temperatures in excess of 32°C (90°F) as an ‘Iberian plume’ swept in from the continent in a heatwave that has already had fatal consequences for hundreds.
Two consecutive Fridays at the end of June and beginning of August were dubbed ‘Furnace Fridays’ as a result of the soaring heat.
Almost 700 more deaths than average occurred during the height of the heatwave in a 15-day period in June and July, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Frail and older people as well as those with kidney or heart problems were found to be most at risk of the deaths that hit England and Wales.
Politicians have accused the government of ignoring warnings form its climate change adviser and claimed if they fail to heed the advice heat-related fatalities could triple to 7,000 by the 2040s.
This year’s heatwave has already led to an increase in the number of deaths across the country linked to the scorching heat. People play amongst the fountains outside the Royal Festival Hall in London on Friday, August 3, as the heatwave continues into this weekend as part of the scorching summer (stock image)
Experts previously warned this summer could finally break the records set by the infamous heatwave of 1976.
The blistering temperatures in June stood toe-to-toe with those of June 1976, while this summer’s July was hotter than its counterpart 42 years ago.
If Britain is hit by a hotter-than-average August – as has been forecast by advanced computer models – 2018 could be the hottest summer ever recorded.
This year’s prolonged heat is the result of a number of factors, including extended high pressure and higher than average surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.
Experts have also warned that rising global temperatures caused by climate change are making the heatwaves gripping the northern hemisphere more ferocious and more likely.
Two consecutive Fridays at the end of June and beginning of August were dubbed ‘Furnace Fridays’ as a result of the soaring heat. People enjoy the warm weather on Sandbanks beach in Dorset on Thursday, August 2 (stock image)
The average mean daily temperature in June 1976 was 15°C (59°F). This is still the highest since records began. The provisional figure for June 2018 is 14.8°C (58.6°F), which would rank as the third highest on record