What happens now Theresa May has a Brexit deal from Brussels?

Theresa May (pictured today leaving No 10) has struck a Brexit deal with Brussels – but now has to sell it to her Cabinet and then Parliament

Theresa May has struck a Brexit deal with Brussels – but now has to sell it to her Cabinet and then Parliament.  

Getting the support of her Cabinet is a crucial first step over the next 24 hours – after which the full details of the plan will be revealed to the nation.

Then she will have to face down MPs in Parliament in December and has to win a vote on whether the country accepts the deal.

This is a potentially much more challenging hurdle because she is already facing opposition to the deal from the DUP, some Tory Brexiteer and Remainer MPs and Labour.

If she fails to get Cabinet support or win a vote in Parliament, her government will likely collapse and the nation will in all probability face another general election.

Here is how events could develop over the coming hours, days and weeks now a draft agreement has been reached.

Special Cabinet, today 

What will happen? The Cabinet will assemble in Downing Street this afternoon to formally make a decision about whether to adopt the plan.

Britain’s most senior minsters are likely to have an extensive and frank discussion about the terms of the deal. The meeting, in Downing Street’s Cabinet Room, will be the last opportunity to make clear criticism and disagreement.  

The Prime Minister already meet her ministers individually last night for a personal briefing on what is in the deal. 

 She survived that hurdle – if Mrs May had miscalculated her position, rebellious ministers could have resigned on the spot – potentially destroying the plans. The Prime Minister can probably survive one or two resignations – but a mass walkout would almost certainly finish her. 

What if Cabinet cannot agree? Anyone who cannot agree to the plan or who attacks it after will be expected to resign or face the sack.

Much like after the one on one meetings, no individual resignation will sink the Government but a raft of people quitting could collapse the Government. 

Aid Secretary Penny Mordaunt, Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey are seen as most likely to resign – but the loss of any would be survivable.

Losing the senior Brexiteers in the Cabinet – particularly Environment Secretary Michael Gove and Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab – would be more damaging and possibly terminal. 

Chances of no deal would rocket as there is little time to negotiate a new deal. 

What if there is agreement? At the end of the meeting, Mrs May will likely sum up and ask her Cabinet to endorse the plan.

Once the Cabinet has agreed, they are all bound by a ‘collective responsibility’ to defend it in public. 

If an agreement is reached, the Prime Minister is expected to hold live televised press conference and the full 500 page divorce deal will be published. 

The crucial dates on Theresa May’s path to securing a Brexit deal

Today: Special Cabinet meeting. If an agreement is reached the plan will be revealed to the public

November 22-25: Emergency EU summit. EU Leaders will meet to sign off on the deal

December: Vote in Parliament. Theresa May needs to win support for the deal from a majority of MPs

March 29, 2019: Exit Day. Britain leaves the EU and enters a ‘transition period’ either governed by a deal or under WTO rules if no deal is reached. Negotiations turn to securing  a final agreement between the EU and Britain

December 2020:  The transition period ends. A trade deal comes into effect. If there isn’t one, the Irish border ‘backstop’ plan could be triggered.

Emergency EU Summit, Brussels, late November

What will happen? If the divorce package is agreed between the two sides, it will need to be signed off by EU leaders.

EU council president Donald Tusk will convene a summit where formal approval will be given by EU leaders. This is expected sometime between November 22 and 25.

Will the whole deal be agreed? The Brexit deal is due to come in two parts – a formal divorce treaty and a political declaration on what the final trade deal might look like.

The second part may not be finished until a regular EU summit due on December 13-14 – it depends whether or not it is published today.

Assuming the negotiations have reached an agreement and Mrs May travels to Brussels with her Cabinet’s support, this stage should be a formality.

What if there is no agreement? If EU leaders do not sign off on the deal at this stage, no deal becomes highly likely – there is just no time left to negotiate a wholly new deal. 

The so-called ‘meaningful vote’ in the UK Parliament, December 2019

What will happen: A debate, probably over more than one day, will be held in the House of Commons on terms of the deal.

It will end with a vote on whether or not MPs accept the deal. More than one vote might happen if MPs are allowed to table amendments.

The vote is only happening after MPs forced the Government to accept a ‘meaningful vote’ in Parliament on the terms of the deal.

What happens if May wins? If the meaningful vote is passed, there will be a series of further votes as the withdrawal treaty is written into British law.

It will be a huge political victory for the Prime Minister and probably secure her version of Brexit.

How can she win? The Prime Minister needs a simple majority of the House of Commons – excluding the Speakers, Sinn Fein and Tellers this means 318 votes. 

She can rely on around 150 members of the Government and maybe another 80 Tory MPs – getting her to about 230 votes – leaving her almost 90 votes short.

Mrs May is likely to get the backing of some Labour MPs – but probably no more than 45 at the most.

This mean she can only win the vote if she can squeeze the Brexiteer rebels down from up to 80 votes and get the 10 DUP MPs in line. 

What happens if she loses? This is possibly the most dangerous stage of all. 

The Prime Minister will have to stake her political credibility on winning a vote and losing it would be politically devastating. 

Brexiteers do not want to sign off the divorce bill without a satisfactory trade deal and Remainers are reluctant to vote for a blind Brexit.

She could go back to Brussels to ask for new concessions before a second vote but many think she would have to resign quickly. 

The Cabinet (pictured in July) will assemble in Downing Street tomorrow afternoon to formally make a decision about whether to adopt the plan

The Cabinet (pictured in July) will assemble in Downing Street tomorrow afternoon to formally make a decision about whether to adopt the plan

Ratification in the EU, February 2019 

What will happen? After the meaningful vote in the UK, the EU will have to ratify the agreement.

The European Parliament must also vote in favour of the deal. It has a representative in the talks, Guy Verhofstadt, who has repeatedly warned the deal must serve the EU’s interests.

Will it be agreed? In practice, once the leaders of the 27 member states have agreed a deal, ratification on the EU side should be assured.

If the deal has passed the Commons and she is still in office, this should not be dangerous for the Prime Minister. 

Exit day, March 29, 2019 

What will happen? At 11pm on March 29, 2019, Britain will cease to be a member of the European Union, two years after triggering Article 50 and almost three years after the referendum. 

Exit happens at 11pm because it must happen on EU time.

If the transition deal is in place, little will change immediately – people will travel in the same way as today and goods will cross the border normally. 

But Britain’s MEPs will no longer sit in the European Parliament and British ministers will no longer take part in EU meetings.

Negotiations will continue to turn the political agreement on the future partnership into legal text that will eventually become a second treaty. Both sides will build new customs and immigration controls in line with what this says.

Transition ends, December 2020

What will happen? The UK’s position will undergo a more dramatic change at the end of December 2020, when the ‘standstill’ transition is due to finish.

If the negotiations on a future trade deal are complete, that could come into force.

But if they are still not complete the Irish border ‘backstop’ plan could be triggered.

Under current thinking, that means the UK staying in the EU customs union and more regulatory checks between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland.

Eurosceptics fear this arrangement will prevent the country striking trade deals elsewhere, and could effectively last for ever, as Brussels will have no incentive to negotiate a replacement deal. 

 

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