Winter will be warmer than usual but forecasters warned of ‘large swings’ in temperatures due to unpredictable weather patterns.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration claimed warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S this winter and no place will be colder than normal for December through February.
The forecast envisions a wetter than normal winter for a swath of northern states from Montana to New York, dipping south to the northern half of Virginia.
The coming winter will be warmer than usual but forecasters warned of ‘large swings’ in temperatures due to unpredictable weather patterns. The winter 2019 outlook is depicted above
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration claimed warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S this winter including New York
It also said there would be drier than normal spots in central and northern California and eastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi.
Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said this year is hard to predict because there’s no El Nino or La Nina in the central Pacific.
Those are often key drivers of winter weather. That leaves things up to other global climate factors, ones that can flip every few weeks. Those often lead to dramatic weather swings, Halpert said.
He said: ‘Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate patterns across the Pacific Ocean that swing back and forth every three to seven years on average.
Together, they are called ENSO, which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
The ENSO pattern in the tropical Pacific can be in one of three states: El Niño, Neutral, or La Niña.
El Niño (the warm phase) and La Niña (the cool phase) lead to significant differences from the average ocean temperatures, winds, surface pressure, and rainfall across parts of the tropical Pacific. Neutral indicates that conditions are near their long-term average.
The 2019-20 Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the Northern Tier of the U.S. in winter
AccuWeather said last week it sees a late start to winter in the Northeast but says it’ll get stormy once it starts, with above normal snowfall from New York City to Boston. An image shows people walking in New York in January 2018 during the ‘bomb cyclone’
Springtime saw significant and historic flooding across the central U.S. that impacted nearly 17 million people.
However, during the summer and early fall, drought rapidly developed across much of the South, with drought conditions now present across approximately 20 per cent of the U.S.
The forecast said drought conditions are expected to improve in portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Alaska and Hawaii, while persisting in central Texas and the Southwest.
The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said this year is hard to predict because there’s no El Nino or La Nina in the central Pacific
Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are expected.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month, with the next update on November 21.
AccuWeather said last week it sees a late start to winter in the Northeast but says it’ll get stormy once it starts, with above normal snowfall from New York City to Boston.
It forecasts Arctic cold in the mid-winter for the Upper Midwest, a wet Southeast and mild temperatures in Florida.
It also sees variable weather from Texas to Montana, rain and mountain snow in much of the west and mild temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.
The Weather Company sees colder temperatures from Montana to Maine, south almost to Maryland, and a warm Southwest. It predicts about the same precipitation patterns as the weather service.
Judah Cohen, a winter weather expert at Atmospheric Environmental Research who incorporates the extent of Siberian snow cover into his forecasts, sees a cold start to winter and late fall in the East but said those snaps will be short lived.