Miracles do happen but the Prime Minister will need a spectacular one to avoid a crushing defeat next Tuesday on the deal she has negotiated with the EU.
It’s clear the intransigent Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), on whose support she relies, is not impressed by such titbits as she has been able to toss in its direction.
Nor is there any evidence that hard-line Brexiteers are weakening in their opposition. They will surely vote in large numbers against her next week, as will a few Tory Remainers.
Stephen Glover says that Prime Minister Theresa May (pictured above) needs a spectacular miracle
Meanwhile, her freedom of manoeuvre has been limited by yesterday’s ill-conceived Commons vote requiring her to come back within three days of her expected defeat with an alternative plan.
Of course, it’s still possible that, over the coming days, Brussels will produce an ‘undertaking’ — the word used by Mrs May yesterday — which will assuage the misgivings of her Tory and DUP opponents. But it seems unlikely anything will be offered that might tempt the naysayers.
Resign
So let’s assume she loses next week, and by a wide margin. Many people, and not just her enemies and habitual critics, will declare she has been humiliated and should resign.
Even some who have backed her will join the growing chorus for her to go. They will say no prime minister can survive a defeat of such magnitude on so crucial a piece of legislation. They will demand she stand aside.
In normal times, such an argument would carry a lot of conviction. But these are not normal times. We are at a moment of national crisis. Not as severe as wartime, obviously, but as perilous as it can get in peace time. We don’t have the luxury of getting rid of Mrs May.
I wouldn’t say this if there were any prospect of an alternative leader stepping forward capable of uniting the country, or of practicable policies other than the Prime Minister’s admittedly flawed deal.
Boris Johnson (pictured above), cannot be the one to replace Theresa May, according to Stephen Glover
Let’s examine possible replacements. Boris Johnson can’t be one because he is so divisive. Maybe he could have cut the mustard immediately after the June 2016 referendum, but it wasn’t to be. As things stand, he, or indeed any other unbending Brexiteer, would rip the Conservative Party apart.
Michael Gove (pictured above) could be the future Prime Minister
Then there are the middle-grounders such as Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Amber Rudd and even Michael Gove. One of them may be a future prime minister, but not now. They are associated with May’s deal, and are not going to come up with a better one commanding widespread support.
The third possibility is Jeremy Corbyn, who could find himself in No 10 following a snap general election. Does anyone sane seriously think he would negotiate a better deal? To be blunt, he doesn’t have the intellectual acumen to lead our country at such a time.
Besides which, he is unloved and distrusted even in his own party, and would leave a trail of wreckage and misery in many aspects of our national life were he ever to become prime minister.
No, there is no available alternative leader who would be likely to do a better job than Theresa May. This might not be the case in six months or a year. But it is now.
So this, it seems to me, is a good reason for hanging on to her after, as seems probable, she is routed next week. She’s far from perfect, and she’s undoubtedly wounded. It’s just that there’s no one else. Nor —just as importantly — are there preferable alternative policies.
Jeremy Corbyn (pictured above) could find himself inside Number 10 if there is a snap election
If May’s compromise irrevocably bites the dust, there are four possible outcomes, all of them undesirable. One is a general election, which might give us a Corbyn government — or another Tory administration grappling with the same problems and divisions. The second bad alternative is a second referendum which, apart from being fiendishly complicated to frame in satisfactory terms, would inevitably be an acrimonious and embittering process.
The third unattractive possibility is the so-called Norway option, which would keep us yoked to the EU in many ways without having any say in setting its rules. Although Norway is not in the customs union, people generally mean we should be members of it when they talk about the option. However, there is no consensus for this approach in Parliament or the country.
The fourth unwanted outcome would be No Deal, with all its untold dangers, for which the Government has made scant preparations. How shaming that at the 11th hour it should have hired a small start-up company without any ships to provide extra capacity at the Channel port of Ramsgate.
Mercifully, No Deal is probably the least likely eventuality, since there is a large parliamentary majority against it. Moreover, in her heart, Mrs May abhors the idea. So does most of the Cabinet.
Alternative
If she is offering Parliament a stark choice between No Deal and her deal, it is because she hopes to bludgeon MPs into joining her cause and, even more importantly, because she wants to frighten the EU’s negotiators into offering last-minute concessions.
That is why the Commons vote earlier this week aimed at blocking No Deal was unhelpful as it may persuade Brussels that this scary prospect is less likely. Yesterday’s vote forcing Mrs May to come up with fresh alternative plans within three days of a defeat will have a similar effect.
European commission President Jean-Claude Juncker (above) could be asking himself about the effects of a No Deal on the rest of Europe
Only if No Deal remains on the table as a plausible alternative will European leaders contemplate better terms. They should take seriously this week’s warning from the World Bank that a No Deal Brexit would have a damaging global impact.
And if they have any sense, they will reflect that Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, is teetering on the edge of a recession into which it might plunge in the event of No Deal.
It’s a game of poker. I wish it wasn’t. I wish Brussels hadn’t insisted on imposing unpalatable conditions on Britain because of an abstruse argument about the sanctity of the Northern Irish border.
Crisis
But there is a decent chance that, if Mrs May’s deal is defeated next week, European leaders will ask themselves whether they really want to precipitate an economic crisis over so meagre an issue.
That is why, on top of everything else I have said, the Prime Minister’s approach offers the hope that EU governments will, in the end, act rationally and adapt this deal in their own best interests so that it is acceptable to the DUP and hard-line Brexiteers.
John Bercow (above) spoke in the House of Commons regarding the selection for a vote of an ammendment to the Brexit withdrawal bill
It’s a risk, of course. The EU might not behave rationally. But there’s less risk involved in sticking with Mrs May’s deal than in any of the other options I have discussed.
Let me add one more thing. Yesterday, we saw the mortifying spectacle of the popinjay Commons Speaker twisting established parliamentary convention so as to give the Prime Minister just three days to produce Plan B if she is defeated.
In practice, this may turn out to be more of an inconvenience than anything else, but watching the vainglorious John Bercow, supported by his Labour sycophants, I gave thanks that we have a courageous, resolute and morally upright Prime Minister who towers above them all.
I doubt she will give up if she loses next week, though, God knows, she must be under unbearable pressure. Her party must not give up on her. There isn’t anyone else who can get us out of the terrible mess we’re in.