An out-of-control space station put in orbit by China will come crashing back to the planet in the next three , revised estimates say.
The Tiangong-1 space station, which is hurtling towards Earth carrying a ‘highly toxic chemical, will likely hit sometime between March and April.
Agencies around the world have been monitoring the doomed craft’s descent, with three separate predictions issued in recent days.
While most of it will burn up during re-entry, around 10 to 40 per cent of the satellite is expected to survive as debris, and some parts may contain dangerous hydrazine.
An out-of-control space station put in orbit by China will come crashing back to the planet in the next three months, revised estimates say. The Tiangong-1 space station, which is hurtling towards Earth, will likely hit sometime between March and April.
Experts from the European Space Agency (ESA), based in Paris, are among those tracking Tiangong-1, which means ‘heavenly palace’.
Tiangong-1’s average orbit has dipped from 289.1 kilometres (179 miles) to 281.3 km (174 miles) since December 2017, according to China’s space agency.
ESA issued an updated prediction of its re-entry date on January 12, giving a current estimated window between March 17 and April 21.
These are the most precise predictions currently available, although the agency admits this is ‘highly variable’.
Website Satflare, which provides online 3D tracking of more than 15,000 satellites, has calculated what it thinks are the chances of the space station entering the atmosphere during the next three months.
According to its analysis of orbital elements gathered during the last months, the re-enter may occur in March (20 per cent), in April (60 per cent) or in May 2018 (20 per cent).
These predictions may also change as new orbital measurements will be available.
Aerospace Corp, a non-profit corporation based in El Segundo, California, which provides technical guidance and advice on all aspects of space missions, has also issued its own forecast.
It says Tiangong-1 will re-enter the planet’s atmosphere in mid to late March, with wiggle room of two weeks either side of this timeframe.
It added that people should not be worried about being hit by debris.
In a written statement, a company spokesman said: ‘When considering the worst-case locations, the probability that a specific person will be struck by Tiangong-1 debris is about one million times smaller than the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot.
While a precise landing location remains unclear, ESA has provided the latitudes between which Tiangong-1 is likely to land – and countries at risk include Spain, Italy, Turkey, India and parts of the US. ESA says no fragments will fall higher than 43°N or further south than 43°S
Agencies around the world have been monitoring the doomed craft’s descent, with three separate predictions issued in recent days. Experts from the European Space Agency give a current estimated re-entry window of between March 17 and April 21
Website Satflare has calculated odds of re-entry in March (20 per cent), in April (60 per cent) and in May 2018 (20 per cent)
Aerospace Corp, a US non-profit corporation which provides technical guidance and advice on all aspects of space missions, says Tiangong-1 will re-enter the planet’s atmosphere in mid to late March, with wiggle room of two weeks either side of this timeframe
‘In the history of spaceflight, no known person has ever been harmed by reentering space debris.
‘Only one person has ever been recorded as being hit by a piece of space debris and, fortunately, she was not injured.’
On September 14, 2016, China made an official statement predicting Tiangong-1 would reenter the atmosphere in the latter half of 2017.
Experts from Aerospace’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (Cords) have been studying the space station and in November updated their predictions for its uncontrolled re-entry.
This placed the date sometime in March 2018, but more recent estimates have narrowed this window further.
While a precise landing location remains unclear, ESA calculated the latitudes between which Tiangong-1 is likely to land.
Countries at risk include Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, India and parts of the US.
While most of the space station will break up, parts of flaming debris could land on Earth, experts claim.
ESA announced that it was hosting an international campaign to monitor the re-entry of Tiangong-1 early last year.
The Tiangong-1 spacecraft launched in 2011, with the aim of using the craft to set up a larger space station.
China’s first space station, Tiangong-1, has been out of control since September 2016, and now experts have predicted when and where it will come crashing back down to Earth
The craft is now at an altitude of less than 300 kilometres (186 miles) in an orbit that is decaying, forcing it to make an uncontrolled re-entry.
Holger Krag, head of ESA’s Space Debris Office, said: ‘Owing to the geometry of the station’s orbit, we can already exclude the possibility that any fragments will fall over any spot further north than 43°N or further south than 43°S.
‘This means that re-entry may take place over any spot on Earth between these latitudes, which includes several European countries, for example.
‘The date, time and geographic footprint of the re-entry can only be predicted with large uncertainties.
‘Even shortly before re-entry, only a very large time and geographical window can be estimated.’
Much of the spacecraft is expected to burn up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.
But owing to the station’s mass and construction materials, there is a possibility that some portions of it will survive and reach the surface.
In the history of spaceflight, no casualties due to falling space debris have ever been confirmed.
The Chinese space agency has been tracking the space station (pictured before it was launched in 2011), and vowed to issue warnings if there are any potential collisions imminent. But not everyone is convinced by this
The vehicle is 10.4 metres long and has a main diameter of 3.35 metres. It has a liftoff mass of 8,506 kilograms and provides 15 cubic metres of pressurized volume