Professor John Edmunds said he would have preferred to see infections driven down further before relaxing the lockdown
Britain is ‘taking a risk’ by unlocking the country with more than 8,000 new coronavirus cases a day and an ‘unproven’ test and trace system, a Government scientific adviser has warned.
Professor John Edmunds said he would have preferred to see infections driven down further before relaxing the lockdown because the outbreak is still teetering on the verge of spiralling back out of control.
Boris Johnson has announced that, from Monday, people will be permitted to meet in groups of up to six people, shops will reopen and some children will go back to school.
Professor Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said the Prime Minister had ‘clearly made a political decision’ because the threat of a second peak remains high.
He said that, even if the ‘untested’ contact tracing scheme goes smoothly, the country could still suffer 80 deaths a day until a vaccine is developed.
His comments come as the crucial reproduction ‘R’ value remains at between 0.7 and 0.9. The R rate denotes the number of other people an infected patient will pass the sickness on to and it must stay at 1 or below or Britain will face another crisis.
Two other SAGE experts lined up behind Professor Edmunds this morning to caution that measures were being relaxed when the infection rate was still not low enough.
Professor Edmunds said: ‘Many of us would prefer to see the incidence driven down to lower levels because that then means we have fewer cases occurring before we relax the measures.
The lockdown rules are increasingly varied across the UK as the home nations butt heads on easing restrictions
‘If we had incidence at a lower level then, even if R went up a little bit, we wouldn’t be in a position where we’re overwhelming the health service rapidly.
‘We could tolerate a little bit [of an increase in infections]. At the moment, with relatively high incidence,relaxing the measures and also with an untested track and trace system, I think we are taking some risk here.
‘Even if that risk does pay off, and we manage to keep the incidence flat, we’re keeping it flat at quite a high level – 8,000 new infections a day.
‘If there’s a 1 per cent infection fatality rate that’s 80 deaths per day, if there’s half a per cent, that’s 40 per day.
‘That’s the amount of deaths we might expect to see going forward. That’s clearly a political decision, it’s not a scientific decision.
‘It’s pretty clear to me the direction of travel is we’re starting to relax and we’re going to keep the reproduction level at one, but that means we’re keeping the incidence at this level.’
Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and Sage member said in a Twitter post that he ‘agreed with John’ on the clear science advice, appearing to reference Sage colleague Professor John Edmunds, who said on Friday the Government was ‘taking risks’ by relaxing measures from Monday
The government charts previously stated that level four required ‘current social distancing measures and restrictions’
Professor Edmunds’ comments will raise further questions about why Boris Johnson has eased the lockdown while the coronavirus alert level remains so high.
Despite the PM saying the government’s five tests have been met and it is safe to start relaxing restrictions, No10 confirmed that the alert level remains at four.
Ministers have insisted throughout that the lockdown would only be eased when the five tests were met.
However, the government has also set up the Covid alert system which describes what people can expect to happen at each level.
There was no alert status slide used at the briefing last night, and Mr Johnson did not refer to the level.
Under the easing in England, different households will be able to see family and friends in groups of six from Monday, although social distancing measures will still have to be followed.
They will also be permitted to use gardens and private outdoor spaces, which was previously banned. Mr Johnson said that meant barbecues are possible.
Schools will start to reopen from Monday, and non-essential shops will follow from June 15.
Professor Edmunds said that without a vaccine or viable treatment at the ready, the Government cannot ease restrictions much more than it already has.
He added: ‘The issue is clearly there’s a need to get the economy restarted and get people back to their jobs.
‘And clearly there’s a social and mental health need to allow people to meet with friends and family and so on.
‘A targeted approach is good, it’s not putting everybody in lockdown which of course allows the economy and for us to go back to some level of normality.
‘But none of us think – that have looked at this in any great detail – that [the track and trace scheme] will be sufficient to be able to hold the reproduction number below one.
‘We will still have to have significant numbers of wider social distancing measures in place.
Environment Secretary George Eustice struggled to explain the logic behind the arrangements in a round of interviews today
Boris Johnson (pictured in Downing Street last night) is facing questions over his lockdown easing today as it emerged the coronavirus alert level has not been reduced
‘The basic reproduction number for this virus is three, maybe even more. and so we cannot relax our guard by very much at all.’
Professor Peter Horby, chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) and a Sage member, backed Professor Edmunds and said Britain could not afford to lose control of the virus.
He told BBC Radio 4 this morning: ‘We really can’t go back to a situation where we’ve got the numbers of cases and deaths we’ve had in the past.’
Labour’s shadow health minister Justin Madders said: ‘It is crucial for all of us that the Government gets this right.
‘Easing lockdown must be done as safely as possible. It will only work if there are effective, flexible and local systems in place that have the confidence of the public to ensure that we avoid a second peak of infections.’
Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and Sage member said in a Twitter post that he ‘agreed with John’ on the clear science advice.
Sir Jeremy also said the newly-introduced NHS test and trace system needed to be ‘fully working’ before measures were eased.
He wrote: ‘Covid-19 spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England. Agree with John & clear science advice.
‘TTI (test, trace and isolate) has to be in place, fully working, capable dealing any surge immediately, locally responsive, rapid results & infection rates have to be lower. And trusted.’
Environment Secretary George Eustice struggled to explain the logic behind the new lockdown loosening in a round of interviews on Friday.
He admitted that up to six people from different households being able to meet in parks and gardens will not help families of six but said the Government ‘have to draw a line somewhere’.
Speaking on BBC Breakfast, Mr Eustice said: ‘We think that six is about a sensible level. We know that the risk of transmission outdoors is actually very low, but obviously if you’ve got lots of people crowded in a garden, if you’ve got two families of six crowded in, obviously that starts to be more difficult to maintain social distancing.’
Pushed again on whether a family of six could meet anyone else, he added: ‘Obviously if they are six on their own than the answer is these rules don’t really help them very much if they want to meet as a full family.
‘But for instance if Claire (questioner) wanted to go with two of the children and take them to see for instance their grandparents if they have grandparents, or uncles, they would be able to do so.
‘So you have to draw a line somewhere otherwise it goes on and on.’