The year was only two days’ old when Liverpool’s title bid looked dead in the water. Having blown a 2-0 lead at Chelsea on January 2 to allow Manchester City to race 11 clear, Jurgen Klopp must have thought his challenge was done and dusted.
It was only compounded around two weeks later when City saw off the same team 1-0 at the Etihad to go 13 points clear of the Blues – and 14 ahead of Liverpool in third. But since that moment, Jurgen Klopp’s men have been rallying – slowly but surely putting results together to get back in contention.
Slow and steady wins the race – and the Reds have now got themselves in a position to do exactly that after nine successive wins, while City have blown hot and cold across the same period.
Liverpool have closed the gap on Man City after trailing their rivals by 14 points in January
Liverpool won 2-0 Arsenal on Wednesday night to close the gap to City to just a single point
The gap between Liverpool and City now stands at just four after Pep Guardiola’s side drew a blank by drawing 0-0 at Crystal Palace on Monday night.
48 hours later, Liverpool won 2-0 at Arsenal to really pile on the pressure on the leaders.
Liverpool now have the initiative – they play again against Watford before City’s next game after the international break, which means they could top the table before the Sky Blues step out against Burnley on April 2.
The fable of the hare and the tortoise tells the story of complacency. A confident hare is so sure of victory in a race against the unfancied tortoise that he takes a nap mid-way through the contest – the latter pulling off the unthinkable by moving at a steady pace despite his obvious limitations.
Manchester City might not be as careless and arrogant as the hare, but they have certainly fallen asleep with the finish line in sight.
Boss Guardiola saw this coming. After that defining win over Chelsea, he refused to declare the end of the title race despite his side’s healthy advantage, saying ‘no one is champion in January, warning his players not to let up.
‘In January no one is champion,’ he insisted. ‘We can think about Chelsea, and Liverpool have games in hand. If they win it will be eight points and eight points in January is nothing.
‘I know [my players]. We have been together for six seasons and most of the guys know how to celebrate the good moments and suffer in the bad ones, how to behave after all the games.
Manchester City were frustrated in a 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace to leave the door open
‘They are going to hear people saying things that are not true, that it is over, but they know it is not over. In January it is impossible it is over.’
Well, Pep was right. And if he thought eight points was nothing, he will be alarmed about how Liverpool have clawed their way back into the title contest.
And he will be scratching his head about how this has happened after City had previously looked invincible themselves prior to that Chelsea win.
That victory was their 12th in a row – an incredible run that Liverpool are now threatening to emulate – but it was followed by a 1-1 draw against Southampton, and they later collapsed against Tottenham in the last minute the next month.
A stuttering win over Everton was unconvincing too, and while they were uplifted again by a 4-1 romp of rivals Manchester United, the 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace leaves a sour taste.
How the Premier League table looked in January (left), with Liverpool 11 points behind Manchester City. Now just one point splits the sides (right)
Guardiola warned City of complacency in January and said it was ‘impossible’ the title race had been wrapped up so early
Liverpool have clearly had the edge over City over the last nine games, and stats from Opta show they’ve scored more goals (23) than City’s 17 and had a superior xG (25.9) compared to their rival’s total of 22.7.
Klopp’s men also have had far more shots on target (75) over City (55), though the Sky Blues have more touches in the opposition box (385) than Liverpool (339).
But Liverpool have made better use of that possession despite technically underperforming in their expected goals tally, and they’re excelling defensively over their rivals too.
The Reds have let in just two goals during that run, despite having an xG against them of 8.2, while City have conceded six with an xG against of 6.1.
The fine margins count when it comes to winning titles, and right now Liverpool are coming out on top in those smaller battles – being clinical in attack and organised at the back.
There are still nine games remaining for City – and nine for Liverpool – so there’s plenty still to play for, though it looks like the former may have an easier ride to the finish when assessing their two run-ins.
The pair face a season-defining showdown on April 10 at the Etihad – but for City, that game is their only match against a team in the ‘big six’.
Liverpool, on the other hand, must face City, Manchester United and Tottenham before the end of the season – as well as a Merseyside derby against bitter rivals Everton. Based on fixtures, you would give City the edge.
But Klopp can be hopeful in the knowledge that star men Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane are firing on all cylinders, while new forward Luis Diaz more than looks the part since his £50million arrival from Porto.
How the two teams measure up over their past nine Premier League matches
Manchester City and Liverpool go head to head on April 10 – but the former have the more favourable run-in for the rest of the campaign
Klopp, of course, has been dismissing his team’s chances of catching City – even after smashing Leeds United 6-0 to cut the gap to just six points – saying he was ‘not in a chasing mood’ and have ‘many challenges ahead’.
‘I’m enjoying this situation we’re in, but I don’t enjoy the questions about it because it’s constant and it’s like we’ve won the games already,’ Klopp said in his pre-match press conference.
‘If we lose tomorrow you’ll all sit here and tell me the race is over. I don’t have the capacity for all these scenarios.
‘I cannot think about what we can win. I’m barely smart enough for enough focus for one game.
Klopp promised Liverpool would be as ‘annoying as possible’ as they seek a huge comeback
‘We are not in the worst moment, but we have so many challenges ahead. I am not in a chasing mood.’
After City dropped points at Palace, however, Klopp cut a more optimistic figure, saying his side would be ‘as annoying as possible’ for the rest of the season.
‘Crystal Palace did really well, Man City did really well. I saw the result and I was surprised.
‘Does it help the mood? Why should it? We play Arsenal and we cannot count points away at Arsenal now. It’s easy for you but it’s 4 points. We have to play this game.
‘If we want to reach something in this PL and you’re not top then you need to win games and others need to drop.
‘The plan is to be as annoying as possible. We have to win our games. You know that but we are very ambitious and determined to do great stuff.
Liverpool can turn the tables and top the table before Guardiola’s men next play should they win their next two games
‘Ten games to play a few really tough ones. They are all tough.’
Arsenal have their own ambitions of finishing in the top four and returning to the Champions League but they were outclassed by Liverpool on Wednesday night.
Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino scored goals early in the second-half and there was no way back for Mikel Arteta’s men.
It now raises the tantalising prospect of Liverpool going top before City next play, assuming they beat Watford at home, which you imagine they will.
While Klopp will still be keeping the charade that Liverpool are still way off the pace, we know that a tortoise can still beat the hare by keeping things slow and steady.
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