As the U.S. prepares to move on from Covid, many health officials are dropping daily case reporting and other data surveillance measures and instead investing resources elsewhere. Some experts are warning that this will leave America ‘blind’ during the pandemic, just as signs begin to emerge that cases will soon start rising again.
Last week, South Dakota became the tenth U.S. state to abandon daily Covid case reporting, instead moving to only report cases once a week. ‘Daily’ reporting is not a reality for many states anyways, though, as those that do partake in daily case reporting still only make numbers available three or four days a week.
Many of these states have also cut funding to Covid testing sites and other facilities set up specifically to combat the virus.
The move comes as a sign that America is starting to feel ready to leave the pandemic behind as case numbers dwindle and the more mild Omicron variant combined with the large number of vaccinated residents means that even those that are infected often suffer minor cases.
Not all experts are convinced, though. Dr John Brownstein, an epidemiologist at Boston Children’s Hospital described the dropping of Covid surveillance as setting America up to repeat past failures.
‘Testing has always been a cornerstone of our pandemic response. Without this surveillance data, we are flying blind and are almost certainly going to repeat mistakes of the past,’ Brownstein told ABC.
Dr John Brownstein (pictured), an epidemiologist at Boston Children’s Hospital, described dropping Covid surveillance measures as allowing the country to ‘fly blind’
‘When we close testing sites, we not only put individuals, their contacts and their communities at risk, we undermine critical public health infrastructure.’
Brownstein’s warning comes just as there are signs America could enter another stage of the pandemic. Currently in the U.S., the nation is averaging 31,070 cases per day, a three percent drop over the past week, and a 95 percent drop since the Omicron variant’s peak of nearly 800,000 cases per day.
This good fortune could soon reverse, though. Cases are now starting to rise over the past two weeks in five U.S. states, including New York, which has served as canary in the coal mine of sorts during the pandemic so far.
New York has recorded a 21 percent increase in Covid infections over the past two weeks, the first state to record a substantial jump in nearly two months.
Manhattan, New York City’s largest population hub, has recorded a 17 percent increase over the past week as well, fueling the greater surge across the state.
The state is still at 1,000 cases per day, though, a very small total that pales in comparison to the nearly 40,000 case per day mark reached at the Omicron variant’s peak.
Other states recording increases include Nevada (29 percent increase over past two weeks), Arkansas (18 percent), Colorado (10 percent) and Rhode Island (four percent).
The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that two weeks ago, Covid cases increased by eight percent globally, up to 11 million. This comes after weeks of falling case numbers. More recent data is expected to be published Tuesday.
The biggest jump was found in the Western Pacific region, where cases jumped 25 percent week-to-week. There was a 14 percent jump in Africa and two percent rise in Europe, as well.
European nations which often trend ahead of the U.S by a few months during the pandemic are among those to have experienced worrying rises. In the UK, cases have jumped around 40 percent over the past week, to 100,000 per day.
The WHO warns that these case rises are only the start of what could be a brutal spring season for parts of the world.
‘These increase are occurring despite reductions in testing in some countries, which means the cases we’re seeing are just the tip of the iceberg,’ Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the WHO, said last week.
Brownstein warns that not having adequate data capturing and reporting tools over the next few months will allow the virus to largely circulate undetected, leaving American vulnerable due to a lack of available information.
‘Comprehensive case data is critical to an effective response. As we have seen throughout the pandemic, lack of data leads to poor decision making and ultimately costs lives,’ he said.
Recent rises in the U.S. and in much of the world are being fueled by the ‘stealth’ variant, or the BA.2 lineage of Omicron, as it is officially known.
The lineage is now dominant in the UK, Denmark and many other European nations, as it quickly was able to over take the BA.1 original version of the variant.
BA.2 has not been able to take hold in the U.S. the same way it did in much of Europe, though. According to most recent data revealed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last week, BA.2 makes up 23 percent of active Covid cases in the U.S., with BA.1 still being dominant. Updated figures are expected to rollout on Tuesday.
The Omicron variant as a whole makes up every single sequenced case in the U.S., per the CDC, with the highly transmissive, vaccine-resistant, strain totally snuffing out the Delta variant this year.
BA.2’s share of Covid infections in America is rapidly growing, though, with the variant only accounting for 11 percent of sequenced cases last week, and only six percent the week previous that.
It is most prevalent in New Jersey and New York, and Northeastern regions of the U.S., accounting for around 40 percent of cases in both designated areas, explaining the recent surge in cases in the region.
The strain is not yet the dominant Covid strain anywhere in America, while it has taken over in many parts of Europe.
While the WHO is still issuing some grim warnings, a majority of signs point to the U.S. being fine this spring. The organization has been among the more cautious voices throughout the pandemic, and as a global organization its outlook includes areas beyond just the U.S. and western Europe.
America has an especially high vaccination rate, per CDC data. Nearly 90 percent of U.S. adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and nearly 100 million have received a booster shot.
More jabs could be on the way as well, with Moderna submitting data to regulators last week to have a fourth vaccine dose approved for all U.S. adults. Pfizer, the company’s main competition in the U.S. vaccine rollout, also submitted data for a fourth shot for Americans 65 and older.
The nation’s Covid mortality rate is relatively low as well. America is averaging 1,099 deaths per day, a 11 percent drop over the past week
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