A boring argument used to go along the lines that Pep Guardiola wasn’t so great at Barcelona; that the junior grounds staff could have picked the team and won titles if they had Lionel Messi available.
It has taken some time but that thread of debate has been quite spectacularly exposed in Argentina over the past year or so. A national team with Messi at its core has flopped quite spectacularly, to the point that they might soon be responsible for the most resounding failure in the recent history of international football.
As it stands, with one game remaining in qualifying, they will not be at the World Cup next year. In a qualification system that permits four out of 10 teams to go through automatically, and another one is afforded a comfortable play-off with New Zealand, they rank sixth.
Lionel Messi reacts after Argentina failed to beat Peru in a World Cup qualifier on Thursday
As it stands, Argentina will not be going to the World Cup finals for the first time since 1970
How has it come to this, three years after reaching the final and with a squad that has included Messi, Gonzalo Higuain, Paulo Dybala, Mauro Icardi, Angel Di Maria and Sergio Aguero? Sportsmail answers the questions.
Just how bleak is the situation? What do they need to do to qualify?
It is dire. They sit sixth in the group with one game to play after drawing 0-0 with Peru in Buenos Aires on Thursday. Their final game is against Ecuador at altitude in Quito. It’s a tough fixture, though a win will guarantee a place in the top five. It works in their favour that Ecuador sit eighth after 17 games and cannot progress, but it is increasingly hard to bet confidently on Argentina. Missing the World Cup for the first time since 1970 is distinctly possible.
What has been the glaring shortcoming?
On the surface, goals. And that is incredible when you see the talent in the squad. They have scored only 16 in 17 games, which is the second lowest in the table. Only Bolivia have scored less. Messi has four goals for the campaign from nine starts, Aguero has scored none, Higuain has barely played and not scored since the qualifier against Peru last October. The most damning statistic is that 456 minutes have passed since an Argentina player scored a competitive goal in open play.
Only Bolivia have scored less goals than Argentina in South America – it was 0-0 on Thursday
Peru goalkeeper Pedro Gallese makes a save against Argentina – he kept a clean sheet
What is the reason for the lack of goals?
It obviously isn’t quality of the forwards, though valid questions have been asked of the creativity in midfield. Of the attackers themselves, the awkwardness is that relationships with Messi seem hard to forge. Take the view of Dybala, for instance, who previously admitted he finds it difficult playing alongside Messi because they favour the same spaces on the pitch. As a consequence, Jorge Sampaoli, the third coach of the campaign, has said they won’t play together. That has meant leaving out the Juventus striker, who has scored 12 goals in all competitions this season.
Higuain, for his part, has fallen out of favour, with Sampaoli doubting his wider ability for his assists, while Aguero’s face has not appeared to fit with either of the past two managers, having been put on the bench for much of the Copa America campaign under Edgardo Bauza.
While Messi’s quality demands that a team is configured to his strengths, it remains difficult to understand how the three managers of this campaign have not done a better job of accommodating the other leading lights.
Messi’s quality demands that the team is configured to his strengths, but it isn’t working so far
The managerial situation has obviously played a part in this, right?
Correct. Gerardo Martino left in July 2016 after three wins, two draws and a defeat, but hinted at a broader issue, which is the structure of the AFA. He was pretty scathing of the organisation, supporting the earlier view of Messi, who has called it a ‘disaster’. Flights, scheduling and communication have all been identified as weaknesses by players who have traverse half the planet to get to international fixtures. Martino was replaced by Edgardo Bauza, who lasted only eight matches before being sacked and eventually replaced by Sampaoli.
Given his achievements at Sevilla, and his preference for attacking, high-energy football, the feeling is that the new man will work out. But after three competitive games, he has three draws.
There is a view that Jorge Sampaoli will succeed eventually, but it has been a rough start
What is he saying about all this?
He is staying upbeat, somehow. ‘I remain confident we’ll be in the World Cup,’ he said after the draw with Peru. ‘It would really be unfair if a group that put it all out there — like they did — does not advance.
‘We are in this situation. If we confront it with the conviction that we had against Peru, we will win at Ecuador. In the changing room, there was a feeling of enthusiasm when we found out that if we win in Quito, we will qualify. I’m going to take advantage of that chance and so are the players.’
Wishful thinking?
It sounds like it. An 18-game qualification process is more than enough for the cream to rise. But Argentina have been so woeful that it is wildly optimistic to expect anything from them in Ecuador purely on the basis of their reputations. The fact is, they have been awful, with a misfiring attack, a superstar striker who has rarely looked happy in these qualifying matches, a selection of new managers and a wider squad that has not spoken to the press since last November because they feel they have been unduly criticised. Against that back drop, the unthinkable might just come to pass this week.
Argentina’s players traipse from the pitch in Buenos Aires after their latest disappointment