Theresa May’s political future hinges on a game of three-dimensional Brexit chess – but one in which every move threatens checkmate.
Framing every deliberation is the hung Parliament she was left with after the General Election, and the fear of fatally alienating either her Brexit or Remain factions.
Meanwhile, lurking in the background is the deceptively benign-looking figure of Grant Shapps, the former party chairman who runs ‘the list’ – the names of Tory MPs who want Mrs May to quit.
When his plot was flushed out by No 10 earlier this month – in order to distract attention from the disaster of Mrs May’s conference speech – he was pilloried by fellow MPs.
Theresa May’s political future hinges on a game of three-dimensional Brexit chess – but one in which every move threatens checkmate
They pointed out that the 30 names fall well short of the 48 required to trigger a leadership contest, and said that the list was dominated by ‘Remoaners’.
But Shapps is playing the long game. First of all, he knows that many of the MPs wheeled out by party whips to mock him and pledge loyalty to the PM secretly hold different views; several have already apologised to him for their duplicity.
More importantly, he believes Mrs May has been backed into a corner over the Brexit negotiations, with Thursday’s EU summit expected to declare that talks cannot move on to the vital trade negotiations.
Instead, it is thought that unless she makes significant concessions – in particular over our divorce bill and the nature of Britain’s post-2019 relationship with Brussels – the talks will collapse.
The EU is still demanding a settlement close to £70 billion, while Mrs May has so far only tacitly agreed to £20 billion.
The more that Mrs May caves in, the more she risks pro-Brexit MPs adding themselves to the Shapps list – in order to try to save their vision of Brexit by replacing her with ‘one of their own’, such as Boris Johnson or David Davis.
After the party conference fiasco, No 10 was happy to let stories run about Mrs May demoting Brexiteer Boris Johnson (left), while the past week has been dominated by speculation about the future of Remainer Philip Hammond (right)
Yet crashing out of the talks and setting course for a ‘no deal’ Brexit could equally trigger a coup by Remainers.
An added headache, as she plots her moves, comes from the EU Withdrawal Bill. The bill, which is designed to transfer over EU laws, is on hold while No 10 tries frantically to avert dozens of threatened Tory rebellions.
Ministers have already signalled a retreat on plans to bypass Parliament by enacting so-called ‘Henry VIII powers’, after more than a dozen Tory MPs signed an amendment against it. But a more totemic battle is now looming – at least ten Conservatives are backing an amendment that would give the Commons the power to veto the ‘no deal’ option.
If Mrs May lost that vote, or agreed to the demand in advance, it would cripple her negotiating position and enrage the Brexiteers.
Then she has the threatened Cabinet reshuffle – a chess game within a chess game.
After the party conference fiasco, No 10 was happy to let stories run about her demoting Brexiteer Boris Johnson, while the past week has been dominated by speculation about the future of Remainer Philip Hammond.
However, as her whips have pointed out to Mrs May, to sack just one of the two men would infuriate their Brexit tribe, while sacking both would create two powerful enemies. But to sack neither, after all the briefing, would look weak.
It’s a conundrum that would baffle a political grandmaster – and not many Conservatives would put Mrs May in that category.