Hezbollah has been left reeling by a spate of shocking explosions in the past two days that killed at least 32 people and wounded thousands across Lebanon and Syria when their communications equipment detonated without warning. The coordinated attacks, unprecedented in scope and scale, appear to be the work of Israel’s Mossad spy agency and have ushered in a new era of psychological warfare. Though he did not reference the exploding devices directly, Israel’s hawkish defence minister Yoav Gallant declared yesterday: ‘We are at the start of a new phase in the war’ and praised the work of Israel’s army and security agencies, saying ‘the results are very impressive’.
But regional experts believe the stricken and embarrassed Hezbollah could now seek out retribution in a similar fashion – a punishing black operation on Jewish targets. ‘It’s unlikely they’re going to respond with an airstrike or a drone strike. Now that Israel has expanded the black ops space, which they have done effectively, we will probably see Hezbollah responding to this with another black operation,’ Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at King’s College London’s school of security studies told MailOnline. ‘That might not be within Israel, which is going to be very difficult. But it could be Israeli targets overseas – it could be Jewish targets overseas. Hezbollah has a very extensive network of people they can work with and work through across the world to hit these sort of targets.’
Israel has not claimed responsibility for the debilitating attacks in Lebanon and Syria. But experts are in almost unanimous agreement that the Mossad and the special operations divisions of Israel’s Defence Forces are the only elements with the capability and the motive to orchestrate such a campaign. ‘Clearly, Israel is behind it. There’s no one else in the region has the capability to do this and coordinate it on that scale. Nobody else stands to benefit,’ Professor Krieg said. ‘It also comes days after Israel talked about stepping up the game, adding a new objective to the war in Gaza, which is to allow Israelis to return safely to the north of Israel which has been widely evacuated amid the border skirmishes with Hezbollah.’
Former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed explained the gravity of this week’s punishing strikes on Hezbollah. ‘In one sweeping attack, with both significant operational and psychological ramifications, these very low-tech devices were used against Hezbollah, deepening the stress and embarrassment on its leaders,’ he said. ‘In two waves – each lasting a matter of minutes, Hezbollah lost thousands of its battle-ready militants in an impactful operation that seriously disrupted its command-and-control capabilities. The staggered attack also illustrates that those behind the strike are not just able to pull off one singular operation, they have other tools at their disposal.’
Professor Krieg added: ‘The primary purpose of this attack is shock and awe. It’s paralysis across the network of Hezbollah. Physical paralysis, because it makes it very difficult for them to communicate now safely for at least a matter of days if not weeks. But apart from that, Hezbollah now knows that Israel could potentially strike when they least expect it, and they can do it without drones or missiles. Even the best sort of air defence can’t protect you from the long arm of the Israeli intelligence community. They didn’t just hit combatants or people in the military wing of Hezbollah, but they also hit people who are in the broader civil societal and political space in Lebanon. Israel has been doing this sort of thing for decades and they’re quite good at this, but doing it all at the same time and using something like a pager, which is obviously not connected to the same network and is not as vulnerable, is quite extraordinary.’
The events of this week have also raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East. Tensions across the region are already strained close to breaking point with the recent assassination of former Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and the ongoing war in Gaza, with peace talks seemingly stalled. Hezbollah has previously signalled that they will continue to fight Israel until the war in Gaza is brought to an end. But many observers now believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hard-right elements of his government represent the biggest obstacle to a ceasefire deal. Peace negotiations were reportedly close to being sealed this summer before Israel insisted on additional caveats, including an enduring military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and Egypt, and establishing various security checkpoints to search Palestinian refugees returning to their homes.
Meanwhile, Israeli leaders have issued a series of warnings in recent weeks that they might increase operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, saying they must stop the exchange of fire to allow people to return to homes near the border. Israel began moving more troops to its border with Lebanon on Wednesday as a precautionary measure, according to an official with knowledge of the movements who spoke on condition of anonymity. The country’s army chief, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi also declared this week that plans have been drawn up for additional military action against Hezbollah, with Israeli media adding the government is considering the prospect of launching a major armed offensive in Lebanon.
‘I don’t see the Netanyahu government making any concessions, and we’re far away from a negotiated settlement in Gaza. And a settlement between Hezbollah and Israel without ending the war in Gaza is very, very unlikely. Hezbollah is not going to go north, return north to the Litani River just like that,’ Professor Krieg said. Hezbollah has already responded, announcing three strikes on parts of northern Israel Wednesday, at least one of which took place after the latest round of explosions in Lebanon. However, analysts said the prospect of an all-out war in the region is unlikely.
‘I still think that strategically speaking, the assessment by both sides hasn’t changed and their outlook on the conflict hasn’t changed – neither Israel nor Hezbollah want an all-out war,’ Professor Krieg said. ‘I don’t think we’re closer to an all-out escalation, at least not from an Iranian or from a Hezbollah point of view. Yes, injuring the Iranian ambassador is certainly another slap in the face, but it doesn’t warrant a direct response by Iran. The attack as it stands does not require Iran or Hezbollah to escalate to a major war. Before this happens, the Americans will do everything they can to contain this politically.’
For Hezbollah, the current situation – though painful – is more manageable than the prospect of a large-scale conflict that could destabilise Lebanon and undermine its position there. Melamed added that this week’s attacks can be interpreted as a clear signal from Israel, and its U.S. allies, that it is willing to double down on destroying Hezbollah, pushing its chief backer Iran to climb down. Melamed said: ‘The attacks in Lebanon may even have a calming effect. The sheer force of the blow might reduce Iran’s willingness to risk its most important operational proxy in a war with Israel – one that could ultimately draw Iran into a conflict it wishes to avoid.’
More than 130 world leaders are now set to meet at the United Nations next week, with the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the latest attacks in Lebanon, and Russia’s war in Ukraine set to dominate the annual general assembly. But there is little optimism that any progress towards peace will be made. ‘The wars in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan are going to be the three main crisis-points in focus at the General Assembly. I don’t think we are likely to see breakthroughs on any of them,’ said Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres last week said that the wars in Gaza and Ukraine were ‘stuck with no peaceful solutions in sight.’
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