Presidential election 2024 live updates: Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris surge, according to top forecaster
By Katelyn Caralle, Senior Political Reporter
Published: | Updated:
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Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election have improved in recent days after a string of positive polls, according to a top election forecaster.
The vice president is still considered the favorite in the latest prediction 538, but the Republican nominee is closing the gap with 41 days to go until Election Day.
538, formerly Five-Thirty-Eight, gives Harris a 55-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College while Trump is at a 45-in-100 chance, a bump from 39 in September.
The change is off the back of a Quinnipiac Poll which shows Trump leading Harris by one percent nationwide and a New York Times/Siena survey putting him ahead in the key Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Harris is back on the campaign trail in Pittsburgh today to lay out her plan to increase manufacturing across the U.S., 24 hours after a similar policy speech from Trump in Savannah.
Follow all the developments in our U.S. politics live blog
Donald Trump sees increase in his chances of winning the election after strong polls
Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris have improved off the back of a series of strong polls, according to a top election forecaster.
Harris is still the favorite, with a 55 percent chance of victory, while Trump is now at 45 percent after an increase from 39 percent on September 17.
538’s G. Elliott Morris said Trump’s bump is off the back of a national Quinnipiac Poll showing him one point ahead and a New York Times/Siena Poll showing him leading in the critical Sun Belt states of Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
‘That’s barely better than a coin flip!’ Morris adds.
‘Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades — the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years.’
Nancy Pelosi scolds CNN host Jake Tapper live on air for bringing up wild Trump claims about Kamala Harris
Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi reprimanded a CNN host in a testy exchange for mentioning recent comments about Vice President Kamala Harris’s cognitive ability.
The hot-tempered response from the San Francisco Democrat came after CNN Host Jake Tapper asked her about recent comments by former President Donald Trump.
‘Donald Trump’s saying that Kamala Harris has bigger cognitive problems than Joe Biden,’ Tapper began as he appeared poised to finish his question.
Then Pelosi abruptly cuts in: ‘Why would you even cover that?’
Trump faces ‘real and specific’ assassination threats from Iran as former president says country is ‘terrified’ of his return
Donald Trump has claimed he received intel briefings that Iran has made ‘real and specific threats’ to assassinate him.
The Republican presidential candidate’s campaign gave the chilling update Tuesday night, in a statement that painted the plans ‘as an effort to destabilize and sow chaos in the United States.’
The bulletin was sent out by Trump Campaign Communications Director Steven Cheung, and claimed the ex-commander-in-chief had been briefed about the supposed plot.
This comes days after investigators found that Iranian ‘malicious cyber actors’ emailed associates of President Biden’s campaign with information ‘taken from stolen, non-public material from Trump’s campaign’ over the summer.
It also follows two failed assassination attempts on the aspiring two-term president, the most recent of which occurred just this month.
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Presidential election 2024 live updates: Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris surge, according to top forecaster
