Poll shows Gaza could be devastating for Kamala’s election chances

Vice President Kamala Harris is slightly trailing former President Donald Trump with Arab Americans, according to polling released Wednesday from the Arab American Institute.

The survey found that 42 percent of likely voters preferred Trump, while 41 percent backed Harris. Twelve percent plan to back a third-party candidate. Normally Democrats have a 2-to-1 advantage with this group.

But polling found that ‘it’s Trump who is the beneficiary of the community’s anger and despair over the Biden Administration’s failure to prevent the unfolding genocide in Gaza,’ a release said. The poll found that by a small percentage – 46 percent to 43 percent – Arab Americans also preferred that Republicans have control of Congress.

While Harris regained much of the support President Joe Biden lost with the community after October 7, she’s still 18 points behind Biden’s level of support four years ago. Biden received 59 percent of the vote when he beat Trump in 2020. Currently, Arab Americans identify evenly between the parties – with 38 percent saying they’re Democrats and 38 percent saying they’re Republicans.

Those who identified as Democrats recounded from an all-time low of 23 percent in October 2023, the same month Hamas terrorists invaded parts of Israel, killing nearly 1,200 Israelis. That kicked off the war in Gaza, with Democratic President Joe Biden supporting Israel’s counter-offensive in the Palestinian territory, which has now killed thousands of civilians and leveled large areas.

Gaza is a top issue for Arab Americans, with 81 percent telling pollsters it will heavily factor into their vote. Both Harris and Trump could grow their support among Arab Americans if they demanded an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza or threatened to withhold diplomatic support and arms shipments to Israel.

Harris moves her number to 60 percent support from Arab Americans if she made these policy changes. Trump’s number would pop up to 55 percent support. The Democratic nominee has been critical of Israel during the war in Gaza but continues to support arming the Jewish state, while Trump has been unabashedly pro-Israel.

While Trump holds a slight edge, within the survey’s plus or minus 4.5 percent margin of error, Arab Americans are also less enthusiastic about voting this year.

Traditionally, the voting bloc has been in the 80 percent enthusiasm range, but this year only 63 percent of the community said they are enthusiastic about voting, the report said. Still, Trump’s lead increases when those the most likely to vote were surveyed – with the Republican earning 46 percent and Harris standing at 42 percent.

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