Zelensky says he wants war with Russia to end by 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky has declared he wants to see Russia’s war with Ukraine brought to an end next year as he embarks on a whistle-stop tour of European capitals to drum up further support for his armed forces. ‘I would like to see it (end) no later than next year, 2025,’ the Ukrainian President said at a briefing in Berlin with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz today, adding: ‘It is very important for us that this assistance does not decrease next year.’ Long-range missiles sit at the top of Zelensky’s wish list, along with sorely needed artillery batteries and shells.

Germany has been the biggest military aid supplier to Ukraine after the United States since Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces over the border in February 2022. Scholz declared this afternoon that ‘we will not let up in our support for Ukraine’, adding that peace ‘can only be brought about on the basis of international law’ and that ‘we will not accept a peace dictated by Russia’. He pledged Germany and EU partners would send more defense equipment this year, and German aid worth four billion euros in 2025. But the Chancellor has proven resistant to providing advanced long-range weaponry for offensive purposes and rejected calls to send Germany’s coveted Taurus missile system.

Zelensky’s declaration comes a day after he held talks with Keir Starmer in Downing Street alongside newly inaugurated NATO chief Mark Rutte, before visiting Paris and Rome on his way to Berlin. Zelensky has for months pushed his Western partners to provide his forces with clearance to use long-range weapons, including British Storm Shadow missiles, to strike military targets deep inside Russia. Washington, London and EU leaders have stalled on green-lighting the request over fears it could draw NATO allies into direct conflict with Russia.

Putin has long warned that Moscow would consider Ukraine’s Western allies directly party to the conflict if their weapons are used by Kyiv’s troops to strike targets on Russian soil, setting out a series of red lines that Western leaders appear reluctant to test. But some analysts have argued that delaying the delivery of sorely needed weapons to Ukraine only to ultimately provide them anyway months later – such as in the case of F-16 fighter jets for air defense – renders them less effective and causes Ukraine to suffer unnecessary losses. In Germany, Scholz’s refusal to deliver Taurus missiles is controversial, even within his own three-party coalition with the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP).

‘We must supply Ukraine with significantly more air defense, ammunition and long-range weapons,’ said the Greens’ European MP Anton Hofreiter. ‘Restrictions on the range of weapons supplied do not contribute to de-escalation but rather enable further Russian attacks.’ The FDP’s defense expert Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann told the same newspaper: ‘I very much hope that Zelensky will make it clear to the Chancellor once again that if Ukraine loses this war, this will not be the last war in Europe.’ In London yesterday, Sir Keir warmly embraced the Ukrainian president on the steps of No. 10 and reaffirmed his commitment to supporting Ukraine.

But Zelensky seemingly made no headway in his attempts to sway the Prime Minister on the issue of providing long-range missiles. There had been strong signals last month that a breakthrough was close, with US President Joe Biden said to have discussed with Sir Keir the prospect of allowing Kyiv to use the likes of the US ATACMS and Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles to strike as deep as 300km inside Russia. Negotiations appear to have stalled, however, and Downing Street said yesterday that the UK’s position on Storm Shadows had not changed. Zelensky has previously likened trying to fend off Russia without long-range weaponry to fighting ‘with his hands tied’.

Besides long-range missiles to threaten military targets, damage infrastructure and disrupt key supply chains embedded deep within Russian territory, Ukraine is in desperate need of artillery batteries and ammunition to prevent further losses of troops and territory. Despite the furor surrounding the innovation and development of drone warfare in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, artillery has proven to be the most effective and important weapon on the frontlines. A recent report published by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank and Open Source Centre estimated that Russian artillery attacks are responsible for some 70 percent of Ukrainian casualties.

The sheer numerical superiority of Russia’s artillery batteries and ammunition reserves afford Putin’s forces a significant advantage on the battlefield. Russian artillery divisions can be deployed in more locations and can sustain a much higher rate of fire than their Ukrainian counterparts, helping to scupper Ukrainian counterattacks while softening up defensive positions. ‘As of August 2024, the Russian theory of victory does not center on major breakthroughs, but rather on the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) as a force capable of defending the breadth (of the frontline),’ the RUSI report read. 

‘The Russian leadership likely believes it can kill its way out of the war, and artillery will be key to doing that. ‘So long as Russia maintains a substantial advantage in artillery systems, it can use tactics that will, over time, deplete the AFU of reserves – a critical vulnerability for Ukraine.’ Kyiv therefore is desperate for Western partners to provide more artillery munitions, – and to help maintain and repair spent guns – to manage the widening discrepancy in capabilities on the front lines. Meanwhile, the provision of long-range missiles would allow Ukraine’s forces to target ammunition dumps, manufacturing facilities, transport links and oil depots, which over time could degrade Moscow’s ability to furnish its frontline troops with a steady supply of shells.

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