Has Putin destroyed Moldova’s EU dream?

A referendum in Moldova joining the European Union has gone down to the wire this morning in a vote marred by fears of Russian vote-rigging amid the war in neighbouring Ukraine and Moscow’s influence in Transnistria. With more than 98 per cent of the votes counted, the ‘yes’ vote was slightly ahead at 50.03 per cent while the ‘no’ camp stood at 49.97 per cent, according to results published by the election commission.

Polls in the weeks leading up to the referendum suggested the ‘yes’ vote was set to win comfortably, and pro-EU President Maia Sandu (pictured) yesterday blasted what she called an ‘unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy’. In a nationwide address, Sandu said there was ‘clear evidence’ that criminal groups working together with foreign forces hostile to Moldova’s interests sought to buy off 300,000 votes, something she called ‘fraud of unprecedented scale’. ‘Their objective was to undermine a democratic process. Their intention was to spread fear and panic in society… We are waiting for the final results, and we will respond with firm decisions,’ she said.

The run-up to the vote was overshadowed by a slew of Moldovan allegations of election meddling by fugitive tycoon Ilan Shor, who lives in Russia. Earlier this month, Moldovan police accused Shor, who was jailed in absentia for fraud and theft, of trying to pay off a network of at least 130,000 voters to vote ‘no’ and support ‘our candidate’ at the elections. Shor has openly offered on social media to pay Moldovans to convince others to vote in a certain way and said that is a legitimate use of money that he earned.

Moscow has denied interfering, while Shor denies wrongdoing. As well as the referendum on altering the constitution to enter the EU, Moldovans also cast their vote in presidential elections yesterday. Incumbent Sandu received a large portion of the vote on 41 per cent, but a threshold of 50 per cent of votes was required to prevent a run-off.

She will now face a second-round vote on Sunday, November 3, facing off against her closest rival, former prosecutor general Aleksandr Stoianoglo (pictured), who is supported by the pro-Russian socialist party. Stoianoglo earned 27 per cent of the vote – considerably more than expected – and could pose a serious threat to Sandu’s presidency if other candidates decide to unite behind him. Flanked by Romania and war-stricken Ukraine, Moldova has alternated between pro-Western and pro-Russian courses since the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union.

Under Sandu, Chisinau now leans distinctly toward the West, but the Kremlin continues efforts to influence the course of Moldovan politics and public opinion, primarily through Russia’s presence in the breakaway region of Transnistria. A thin slice of land in eastern Moldova along the border with Ukraine attempted to achieve independence from the rest of the country amid the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a brief conflict was resolved in 1992 after Russia deployed a peacekeeping force there. The region is not internationally recognised as a separate republic, but the territory has a Russian-backed self-declared government that is insistent on uniting with Russia.

Meanwhile, Sandu – a champion of EU integration – has worked to pull away from Russia’s influence since she became president in December of 2020. She wants Moldova to join the EU by 2030 and has strongly condemned Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Sandu has also accused Russia of plotting her overthrow, and diversified energy supply after Russia reduced gas supplies. The Kremlin has accused Sandu’s government of ‘Russophobia’. Sunday’s referendum sought to decide whether to insert a clause into the constitution defining EU accession as a goal. As the war in Ukraine has raged to the east, turning the political and diplomatic spotlight on Moldova, it has accelerated its push to escape Moscow’s orbit and embarked on the long process of EU accession talks.

A ‘no’ vote would not be legally binding, but would energise Stoianoglo’s presidential campaign and would be a blow to Sandu ahead of November’s run-off. Polls showed that a clear majority of Moldovans supported accession to the European Union before the vote. At least five of the candidates told their supporters to either boycott the referendum or vote ‘no’, arguing the referendum was a ruse to boost Sandu’s haul at the election. Stoianoglo, whose candidacy was backed by the traditionally pro-Moscow Party of Socialists, boycotted the referendum as he voted.

He declared the country needed a new government and that if he won, he would develop ties with the EU, Russia, US and China – though gave no explanation as to how he planned to foster such strong relations with great powers across the political and ideological spectrum. Oazu Nantoi, a lawmaker for Sandu’s PAS party, put the weaker-than-expected result down to what he said was Russian ‘hybrid’ interference. ‘We are in the grey zone and under great influence of Putin,’ he said.

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