The scene could scarcely have been more peaceful as autumn sun beat down on the park. Elderly men chatting on a bench, families strolling with children and a woman walking a small dog with colourful ribbons tied in its fur.
Yet at the end of the park in Gori sits a museum dedicated to one of the most evil people in history: Joseph Stalin, the Soviet dictator who slaughtered millions and was born in this Georgian city almost 150 years ago.
This memorial to a 20th-century monster, which even contains Stalin’s death mask, is a stark reminder of Georgia’s dark past. But is it also a portent of the future?
For the nation faces a landmark election this Saturday, viewed as a referendum on whether it should push on with moves to join the West or slide back into the arms of another bloodstained dictator in the Kremlin who wants to recreate the Soviet empire.
Opposition parties are desperate to oust a government dominated by a secretive billionaire oligarch who made his fortune in Moscow and has started to mimic Vladimir Putin’s hideously repressive regime.
Georgia’s former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili speaks during his press conference in Tbilisi, on February 4, 2014
Opposition parties are desperate to oust a government dominated by a secretive billionaire oligarch who made his fortune in Moscow and has started to mimic Vladimir Putin ‘s hideously repressive regime
Ian Birrell in Kirbali, a village bordering South Ossetia, standing approximately 200 meters from the so-called border
‘God forbid these people stay in power,’ said Nana, 60, sitting with her daughter-in-law on a park bench in their home city, which was bombed by Russian jets during a five-day war in 2008. ‘All sane people want Europe.
‘At stake is not just the future of this Black Sea nation that borders Russia and its 3.7million population – but also what will happen to a Western ally of immense strategic significance in the Caucasus region that lies at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
‘This is an existential moment for us,’ said Eto Buziashvili, a former adviser to the country’s National Security Council and expert on Russian influence.
She fears Georgia might be on a similar path to Belarus, an ally of Moscow used by Putin as a base for invading Ukraine.
‘It’s a delusion to think this could not happen here. We are already seeing human rights violations and democracy declining. We see signs of titushki [hired political thugs] on the streets in Georgia,’ she says.
At the centre of this electoral tussle lies the shadowy figure of Bidzina Ivanishvili, who took power 12 years ago by posing as the saviour of democracy after a previous government began abusing its power.
He lives in a £40million steel and glass edifice overlooking the capital Tbilisi, which sparked comparisons with a Bond villain’s lair due to its huge size, futuristic design, helipad and glass tank filled with sharks that lines one wall of his study.
Ivanishvili, 68, left Georgia to study in Moscow, then made billions in banking, commodities and computers during Russia’s ‘gangster capitalism’ period in the 1990s.
Ivanishvili, 68, left Georgia to study in Moscow, then made billions in banking, commodities and computers during Russia’s ‘gangster capitalism’ period in the 1990s
He lives in a £40million steel and glass edifice overlooking the capital Tbilisi, which sparked comparisons with a Bond villain’s lair due to its huge size, futuristic design, helipad and glass tank filled with sharks that lines one wall of his study
‘He gave the impression he was nobody. That was his survival formula. He wasn’t taken seriously,’ said former aide Gia Khukhashvili.
‘His nickname was The Python since he loves strategic patience – slowly choking his opponents.
‘The question now is whether the oligarch is applying the same constrictive approach to his nation. For there is concern his Georgian Dream party is pandering to Putin by squeezing out democracy and extinguishing hopes of joining Nato and the European Union.
Some think this has always been Ivanishvili’s aim and he has been playing the long game in a country with a big majority in favour of joining Brussels. Others believe he thought Ukraine would lose its war with Russia and Georgia might be next, so leapt into Putin’s arms to protect himself.
‘Whichever you believe, the end result is the same, which is what worries me and the Georgian people,’ said Tina Bokuchava, head of the main opposition party. She argues Georgia’s long-cherished European ambitions – written into its constitution – are at stake. ‘We cannot afford to have a government that has become openly anti-Western and anti-European,’ she says.
Tina Bokuchava, chairwoman of the United National Movement, at the UNM office
‘Whichever you believe, the end result is the same, which is what worries me and the Georgian people,’ said Tina Bokuchava, head of the main opposition party (left)
The church built by villagers in the early 2000s, later taken by Russian forces during the borderization. At this church, Russian soldiers killed a Georgian man from Kirbali last year
This might sound like overblown pre-election rhetoric. Yet the ruling party rejected sanctions on Russia to the fury of Ukraine and restarted flights to Moscow.
Its leaders rant about the ‘global war party’ that supposedly dominates the West, say they will ban opposition parties, have targeted LGBT citizens and passed a law imitating a key measure used by the Kremlin to silence dissent.
This ‘Russia law’ brands charities, media groups and think-tanks with more than 20 per centfunding from abroad as ‘foreign agents’, which could force many to shut down or restrict activities.
It provoked almost two months of protests met with beatings, tear gas and water cannon – along with criticism from Washington and warnings it might impede EU accession. Opposition candidate Dimitri Chikovani was among those beaten. Five men jumped on him as he arrived home one night, leaving him concussed with a broken nose and cheekbone. He says Georgian Dream ‘has started using KGB guidelines’.
The party claims polls show support running at 59 per cent – substantially more than in any previous election and almost double the figure released by more credible organisations.
Many fear Ivanishvili will try to steal the election and declare himself the winner – then, after protests explode, respond with force while claiming to be resisting an attempted coup. Senior officials from ruling and opposition parties told me they worry the vote will lead to violence.
One of the opposition leaders Dimitri Chikovani in his office at the United National Movement
Davit Katsarava, who fought in Ukraine, fears these forces could be used to intimidate rivals of Georgian Dream. ‘They could be here in one hour,’ he told Ian over coffee in a Tbilisi cafe
Georgian Dream’s former defence minister Tinatin Khidasheli told me Ivanishvili might falsify results and ‘would not even blink’ at shooting protesters. ‘He will do whatever it takes to stay,’ she said.
Tensions are heightened by Russia’s foreign ministry claiming the US is preparing a ‘Hollywood-style’ plot to challenge the legitimacy of election results and provoke protests to topple the government.
Meanwhile, Moscow appears to be ramping up its military presence in its occupied territories just 40 miles from the capital.
Like Ukraine, this country has lost chunks of land to its neighbour since shaking off Kremlin rule in 1991 – and, as in Ukraine, Putin used proxy separatists armed by Russia to grab a region called South Ossetia in the 2008 war.
This was the first aggressive act by a major power in Europe since the Second World War, causing almost 850 fatalities and leaving 35,000 people homeless – yet it failed to wake up the West to the reality of Putin’s Russia.
One group that monitors Russian activities in the occupied territories told me it had detected signs of a fresh build-up of men and armoured vehicles at the country’s main military base.
Its founder Davit Katsarava, who fought in Ukraine, fears these forces could be used to intimidate rivals of Georgian Dream. ‘They could be here in one hour,’ he told me over coffee in a Tbilisi cafe.
He was beaten up so badly by police during the ‘Russia law’ protests – with his capture caught on camera – that a titanium plate was surgically inserted into his cheek. He added that his assailants said it was revenge for fighting in Ukraine and irritating Russians.
‘It makes you angry because it is your land,’ said Amiran Dotiashvili, 38 (above). ‘We built the church with our own hands. Now we can’t even go there to light a candle and pray’
Putin’s attack on Georgia in 2008 was aimed at the pro-Western government of Mikheil Saakashvili, a polarising figure who turned the country into a post-Soviet success story with rapid modernisation before growing increasingly authoritarian.
His 2012 defeat by Ivanishvili led to the country’s first democratic transfer of power – although he has since been imprisoned on what supporters say are faked charges. ‘Russia is planning to seize another European country,’ he told me in a note from behind bars, urging the West to be ‘aware and ready’.
Ivanishvili provoked fury last month by saying Georgia should apologise for the 2008 war. ‘What should we apologise for – that they killed our people?’ responded one man in Kirbali, a village whose residents can no longer work in a nearby forest where timber was their main source of income, since it sits on the frontline with South Ossetia.
His friend was killed and another man injured last year when Russian border forces opened fire afterthey visited the village church. It had been cut off by ‘creeping annexation’.
‘It makes you angry because it is your land,’ said Amiran Dotiashvili, 38. ‘We built the church with our own hands. Now we can’t even go there to light a candle and pray.
‘These villagers call Putin ‘the devil’. Yet they worry about Moscow and are cautious over EU and Nato integration. ‘If we don’t have a good relationship with Russia, the same thing that happened to Ukraine will happen to us,’ said Tamuna, 36.
‘These villagers call Putin ‘the devil’. Yet they worry about Moscow and are cautious over EU and Nato integration. ‘If we don’t have a good relationship with Russia, the same thing that happened to Ukraine will happen to us,’ said Tamar, 36 (left with Ian)
‘This is another election where people should decide whether they want peace and economic growth,’ says Nikoloz Samkharadze (above), an MP and chairman of the foreign relations committee. ‘No one wants to be part of Russia in Georgia
Georgian Dream’s well-resourced campaign has plastered the country with posters of destroyed churches, schools and theatres in Ukraine, contrasted with images from Georgia emblazoned with the slogan: ‘No to war! Choose peace.’
The party denied suggestions the election is an existential vote for the nation, rejected claims of vote-rigging, and insisted it would win comfortably with at least half the vote.
‘This is another election where people should decide whether they want peace and economic growth,’ says Nikoloz Samkharadze, an MP and chairman of the foreign relations committee. ‘No one wants to be part of Russia in Georgia.
‘Both the US and EU have indicated they are preparing sanctions on Ivanishvili. Three of his four children live abroad – including his favourite son Bera, a rapper and social media influencer reportedly sent to set up base in Brazil in case moves were made to seize the family assets.
Ultimately, many observers in Tbilisi suspect Georgia’s future hinges on a single issue: whether their oligarch is more scared of losing his billions under Western sanctions – or his life to Putin, with his track record of eliminating enemies.
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