Iran orders army to plan for attack if Israel strikes major sites

Iran has ordered its military to plan attack scenarios should Netanyahu give the green light to hit major sites in its anticipated retaliation for the October 1 missile barrage. Iranian officials, under condition of anonymity, told the New York Times that Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has told his armed forces to prepare several responses to be implemented depending on the severity of Israel’s strike.

Widespread damage and a high number of casualties could provoke a sharp reaction from Tehran, the officials said, adding there may be no response if the attack is limited to military compounds. Focus has fallen on the various oil refineries and nuclear sites of economic and strategic value to Iran in the wake of its blistering assault on Israel earlier this month. Israel was said to assured allies in the US it would steer clear of valuable sites.

Officials said a major attack could trigger a response with as many as 1,000 ballistic missiles – fivefold the number used earlier this month in what was its largest attack on Israel in its history. The Ayatollah has allegedly ordered that such a heavy response should be carried out if Iran hits energy infrastructure or nuclear facilities, or assassinates senior officials, the officials said. The October 1 attacks were themselves in response to an Israeli attack that killed IRGC operations commander Brig-Gen Abbas Nilforoushan and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, according to Iran.

Iran has maintained that it does not seek escalation, but has sent out persistent warnings to Israel that it will ‘not last long’ as it presses on with operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi toured the region last week in an effort to assure partner that Iran was not seeking all out war with Israel. But the Iranian military has continued to warn that Iran could still break Israel’s defences if pressed, in spite of recent air defence upgrades.

‘Just as the Arrow anti-missile systems did not work during Operation True Promise 2, [Israel’s newly acquired] THAAD systems will not work either,’ IRGC chief Hossein Salami said, according to Russian news agency TASS. Do not rely on THAAD, they have limited capabilities… You cannot win this conflict, we will destroy you,’ he added. The Pentagon announced the THAAD deployment earlier this month to help bolster Israel’s air defenses following Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Israel in April and October, saying it was authorized at the direction of President Joe Biden.

Iranian Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari said earlier this week that Iran was anticipating a ‘desperate, limited, and minor attack’ from Israel, and claimed Israel ‘definitely cannot’ carry out an attack on the scale of the October 1 strikes. Israel’s allies meanwhile are still dealing with an apparent leak of Israeli plans to attack Iran . US investigators are working to find out how documents allegedly containing an interpretation of satellite imagery and sensitive intelligence ended up on messaging platform Telegram. President Joe Biden was ‘deeply concerned’ about the leak, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said, adding that officials were not yet clear if the documents were released as a result of a leak or hacking.

‘Israel Defence Forces (IDF) continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity on 16 October almost certainly for a strike on Iran,’ the documents read, warning the attack could occur without warning at a scale that could not be ‘definitively predicted’. ‘The Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued long-range air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) handling on 16 October. The IAF has handled at least 16 Golden Horizon ALBMs and at least 40 1502 Rocks since October 8,’ they said, adding the Israeli Air Force had also conducted aerial refuelling exercises. ROCKS refers to an air-to-ground missile manufactured by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defence Systems corporation. The ‘Golden Horizon’ missile has not been previously identified. Fears Israel could use nuclear weapons against Iran appear unfounded, the report concludes.

Still, Tehran is fearful that a conventional strike could cripple its own nuclear facilities. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran has informed the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, about threats to nuclear sites. Experts have warned that the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could further complicate peace talks for Israel and allow Netanyahu to focus more on its conflict with Iran. Dr Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor of Defence Studies at King’s College London, told MailOnline: ‘I very much think that this now allows Netanyahu to focus much more on Iran, and even potentially to draw capacity away to other theatres.’

Mark Wallace, former US ambassador to the UN, said he anticipated a strong response from Israel before November 5. ‘I think sometime before the election. In the coming weeks, as Israel continues to solidify its gains against Hezbollah, you will see a decisive a very impactful strike on Iran,’ he said. ‘I think that the regime in Tehran’s days are numbered not just because of the threat of conflict with Israel, but they’re being revealed to their so-called axis of resistance.’

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