In the final week of this ‘dead heat’ presidential election, I am reminded of Ronald Reagan’s landslide 1980 victory.
Then as now, President Jimmy Carter was polling neck-and-neck with his Republican challenger.
A Gallup poll showed Carter up one percentage point nationally in late October. Only four days before the vote, a CBS News/New York Times survey showed the race to be just as close.
Then the bottom dropped out of Carter’s campaign – and Reagan won by nearly 10 points in the popular vote, and a staggering 489 to 49 in the Electoral College.
I was a young campaign analyst at the time, but I’d later join Reagan’s vaunted White House political strategy team and we analyzed what drove the landslide.
In the final week of this ‘dead heat’ presidential election, I am reminded of Ronald Reagan’s landslide 1980 victory.
Craig Keshishian is a former Reagan White House pollster and political analyst
We discovered thousands of previously overlooked Americans, living in rural and suburban communities — folks who worked 40-hour weeks, lifted the freight, paid the bills and ran the small businesses.
Their voices weren’t regularly heard in the halls of power and didn’t necessarily vote in every election.
They came to be known as ‘The Silent Majority’.
These men and women were not ‘country club’ Republicans. Many were culturally conservative Democrats or independents who were fed up with rampant inflation, shuttered factories, failed foreign policy and surging crime.
That ‘Silent Majority’ changed the course of history.
Now, more than four decades later and just seven days from the 2024 vote, the signs are telling me that history may be repeating itself…
SUN BELT REPUBLICAN SURGE
Americans living in Nevada and Arizona have had a front-row seat to the impact of mass illegal immigration under the Biden-Harris administration.
In both of these states, registered Republican voters have cast more early ballots than registered Democrats — reversing a historic Democratic advantage.
Of course, these early ballots do not reveal actual vote numbers, as they are not opened until Election Day. But this changing dynamic can’t be ignored.
As of Sunday, Republicans held a 33,500 ballot lead or 5.2 percent of the total early vote.
Last week, Jon Ralston, editor of the Nevada Independent, described the result as ‘unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle’ and said there is ‘no good news’ in the figures for Democrats.
As of Sunday, Republicans held a 33,500 ballot lead or 5.2 percent of the total early vote. (Above) Early Voting in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 23, 2024
In Arizona, it’s even bleaker for Democrats.
Republicans returned nearly 42 percent of the statewide early ballots by Monday, compared to just over 35 percent from Democrats and 23 percent from independents.
This represents nearly a 9-point swing in the GOP’s favor from the 2020 election.
The latest Trafalgar Poll released Monday provides yet another index with which to evaluate this Arizona race: Trump is leading Harris — 48 to 46 percent.
At this point in the race 2016, Hillary Clinton held an average 1.8 percent advantage — and she eventually lost by 1.5 points.
STORM VICTIMS RALLY
In North Carolina, meanwhile, Republicans are also outpacing Democrats in the return of early ballots.
After Hurricane Helene decimated the heavily Republican western region of the state last month, I was concerned that North Carolina may become a liability for Trump because his supporters may be indisposed to vote.
With people displaced, their homes destroyed and their lives upended, you’d assume that voting would be the last thing on their minds.
But the opposite has occurred.
A record-breaking 2.8 million people in North Carolina have cast early ballots – with tens of thousands of those votes coming out of the storm-ravaged west.
As of last week, voters in the 25 counties in the FEMA-designated disaster area submitted 0.5 percent more ballots than they had in 2020.
A record-breaking 2.8 million people in North Carolina (above) have cast early ballots – with tens of thousands of those votes coming out of the storm-ravaged west.
What explains this kind of fortitude?
While traveling through the state earlier this month, I was told by Victoria and William McKinley from weather-beaten Beech Mountain in Avery County that they would ‘crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump.’
That’s what we pollsters call ‘voter intensity’, a possible indication of a Silent Majority stirred to action.
In nearby Georgia, which was also impacted by Hurricane Helene, there’s been a similarly robust early voter turnout.
Trump currently holds slight leads in the polls in both Georgia and North Carolina
THE ‘KEY’ KEYSTONE STATE
One of the most difficult states to analyze, however, is perhaps the most critical in the election.
If Trump loses in Pennsylvania, his path to victory in the electoral college is problematized significantly.
Currently, early voter returns in the Keystone State favor the Democrats – but not by as much as four years ago.
In 2020, the Democrats commanded nearly 70 percent of the early vote at this point in the election, while registered Republicans made up only 20 percent of the tally.
Today, registered Democrats have cast nearly 60 percent of the early vote and the Republicans have notched 30 percent.
It’s hardly a game-changer but it does mark a significant improvement.
And when those statistics are paired with public opinion surveys and anecdotal evidence, it leads me to believe there is surging support for Trump in the state.
Four years ago, Biden held a nearly four-point advantage here and in 2016 Hillary Clinton led by five points – but Trump is currently ahead by a slim 0.5 percent.
One of the most difficult states to analyze, however, is perhaps the most critical in the election. If Trump loses in Pennsylvania, his path to victory in the electoral college is problematized significantly.
That’s significant. And don’t take my word for it.
Late last week, Pennsylvania Democratic Senator John Fetterman raised alarm over Trump’s ‘special connection’ with the people of his state.
The ‘intensity’ of support for Trump in his state is ‘astonishing,’ he told the New York Times.
‘It’s the kind of thing that has taken on its own life,’ he said. ‘That doesn’t mean that I admire it. It’s just that it’s real.’
Meanwhile, the state’s veteran Democratic Senator, Bob Casey, who is running for re-election in a competitive race, is airing campaign ads touting his working relationship with Trump.
When two experienced lawmakers say their opponent is showing strength, it pays to take notice.
DEMOCRATIC ALLIES WAVER
Finally, there are two intriguing developments out of Democratic strongholds in disparate parts of the county.
Firstly, in Michigan – another critical prize in this election. Trump won it in 2016 by a whisker. Biden reclaimed it in 2020.
Here, too, early voting has surged, but the state does not release information on the party affiliation of those casting early ballots.
However, this is reason to suspect that Democratic voter enthusiasm in the state is somewhat dimmed.
In a new survey by veteran pollster John Zogby and the Arab American Institute, Trump jumps out to a 46 to 42 percent lead over Harris among likely Arab-American voters in the state.
That’s a big deal, as Michigan is home to the largest concentration of Arab-Americans in the US, with a state-wide population estimated to be upwards of 200,000.
This voting bloc – normally considered a sure bet for Democrats – now appears to be going soft on Harris, put off by the current administration’s continued support for Israel.
Meanwhile, polling also shows black and Hispanic voters favoring Trump by historic margins. Harris knows this, hence her increased efforts in recent weeks to woo black male voters with promises of handouts.
This voting bloc – normally considered a sure bet for Democrats – now appears to be going soft on Harris, put off by the current administration’s continued support for Israel.
I’m also looking at Miami-Dade County, in southeast Florida, a traditionally Democratic stronghold – yet registered Republicans in the county currently hold a nearly 30,000 early ballot lead.
So, what’s happening here and around the country? Why are previously reliable groups slipping away from Democrats? Why is Harris losing traditional advantages?
I believe there is a shift underway that the polls have not yet picked up on.
Even as a polling analyst, I must admit that the forecasting power of public opinion surveys in America is limited. Polls can be flawed through chance, incompetence or even deception.
There’s another ‘metric’ that I’ve found useful – and it’s based on 40 years of experience measuring the attitudes of the American people and getting a feel of what they really think.
And it’s starting to ‘feel’ like 1980 all over again.
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