Putin issues stark warning to the West

Russian President Vladimir Putin has staged a mock nuclear war, launching scores of missiles capable of unleashing a ‘massive’ strike in a stark warning to the West. The major new exercises spanned Russia, with Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launches from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in the northwest to the Kura test range in Kamchatka in the far east. Defence Minister Andrei Belousov warned the West that the exercise was to show how Russia could deliver ‘a massive nuclear strike by strategic offensive forces in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy’.

Sineva and Bulava ballistic missiles were fired from submarines in the Barents and Okhotsk Seas. Tu-95MS strategic bomber planes, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, launched cruise missiles. Nuclear-powered submarines, a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system and two Tu-95MS bombers were involved in Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrence force drills, according to Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who reported to Putin on the surprise drill. ‘Comrade Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the training involves a strategic missile-carrying submarine of the Pacific Fleet, Yars road-mobile strategic missile system, a strategic missile-carrying submarine of the Northern Fleet and two Tu-95MS strategic missile-carrying bombers,’ said Gerasimov.

Putin earlier declared it was necessary to keep his strategic forces ‘constantly ready for combat’ and lauded the capability of the latest Russian missiles to overcome air defence systems. He is said to have personally overseen some of the launches via a video link today, Russia’s TASS news service reported. ‘We will practice the actions of officials in managing the use of nuclear weapons with practical launches of ballistic and cruise missiles,’ he said. The Kremlin chief pointed out that Russia would only use nuclear weapons as an ‘extreme and exceptional measure’, but went on to add the devastating devices serve as a ‘reliable guarantor of the sovereignty and security’ of the nation.

‘Given the growth of geopolitical tensions, the emergence of new external threats and risks, it is important to have modern strategic forces that are constantly ready for combat use… ‘We will systematically transfer new missile systems which… have higher accuracy, reduced launch preparation time and – most importantly – increased capabilities to overcome missile defence systems,’ he concluded. Russia’s nuclear weapons are distributed among specialised units in the Navy, the Aerospace Forces and the Strategic Missile Forces. Taken together, these units form Russia’s nuclear triad under the ‘Strategic Deterrence Forces’ – the world’s most powerful and numerous arsenal of nuclear weapons.

Moscow is said to have some 5,800 nuclear warheads, 1500 of which are operational and ready for deployment with Putin declaring in March that his nation was ready for the eventuality of a nuclear war ‘from a military-technical point of view’. All three components of the triad took part in today’s exercises, Russia’s Ministry of Defence confirmed today. A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was launched from the Plesetsk State Test Cosmodrome to the Kura test site in Kamchatka. Sineva and Bulava ballistic missiles were launched from the nuclear-powered strategic missile submarine Novomoskovsk in the Barents Sea and from the nuclear-powered submarine Knyaz Oleg in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk.

Tu-95MS long-range strategic bombing aircraft were also involved in the training, launching nuclear-capable cruise missiles. All missiles reached their targets and the drills were completed successfully, the Defence Ministry confirmed. The unsettling drills come just weeks after the Kremlin announced that Russia’s nuclear doctrine, last updated in 2020, had been amended according to changes proposed by Putin that were in the process of being formalised. Putin said the changes could see Moscow authorise a nuclear strike if Russia was hit by conventional weapons by a nuclear power, in a concerning lowering of the so-called ‘nuclear threshold’. The changes also enable Moscow to respond with a nuclear strike if a non-nuclear state launches an attack on Russia while being supported by a nuclear power.

‘Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is treated as a joint attack on the Russian Federation,’ he said. The changes were widely seen as an attempt by Putin to dissuade Ukraine’s backers from sending Kyiv long-range missiles for use on targets inside Russia – a capability Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted is vital to turn the tide of the war. Thus far it appears to have worked, with the US, UK and France refusing to give Zelensky’s troops permission to use ATACMS and Storm Shadow long-range missile systems on Russian territory. Germany meanwhile has refused to transfer its Taurus missile system to Kyiv, despite all four nations affirming earlier this month they would support Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’. Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet and Russian diplomat, said the ‘red line’ was intended as a ‘very clear message’ to the West that Moscow will not tolerate further support of Ukraine.

‘Don’t make a mistake – all these kind of things may mean nuclear war . I’m really concerned about all the loose talk,’ he said. ‘We run head-on into a situation which is completely unfamiliar to us… If you do not factor in the risks, you are likely to have a very unpleasant surprise.’ But analysts advocating for further support of Ukraine argue that the supposed ‘red lines’ are little more than Russian bluster, pointing out that the West has already crossed limits Moscow previously said it would not accept – for example, in the case of providing Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets. Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, said that Moscow’s ‘red lines’ are just a ‘psychological PR operation by the Kremlin without much substance’.

‘It is designed to scare leaders and voters of countries supporting Ukraine,’ he said. Anton Gerashchenko, a former adviser to Ukraine’s internal affairs minister, said on X: ‘In my opinion, this is yet another bluff and demonstration of Putin’s weakness. ‘He will not dare to use nuclear weapons because that will make him a complete outcast.’ Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow and defence expert in Oslo, said he did not believe Putin’s comments could be ignored but that it was important not to overreact. ‘Russian nuclear use is not imminent,’ he said, arguing that concern is warranted ‘only when Russia signals actual preparations’. Hoffmann said next steps could be removing warheads from storage and pairing them with delivery vehicles for a tactical strike, before ratcheting up preparations for large-scale nuclear use by readying silos and putting bombers on alert. All of these moves would be detected by Western intelligence agencies, he affirmed.

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