Ukraine’s frontline is ‘crumbling’ under the weight of the Russian advance, one of Kyiv’s generals has admitted, as Moscow’s troops announced they had seized another town as they march on the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. The capture of the frontline town of Selydove, located about 10 miles southeast of Pokrovsk, is the latest gain for Russia, which has taken large swathes of territory in the Donetsk region in recent months. The announcement came shortly after Moscow claimed the capture of two nearby villages – Bogoyavlenka and Katerynivka – as well as Yasna Polyana near the Industrial town of Vuhledar captured earlier this month. Vladimir Putin ‘s army took 185 square miles of Ukrainian territory in October, a record since the first weeks of the conflict in March 2022, according to an analysis of data provided by the real-time conflict tracker from the Institute for the Study of War.
Selydove alone had around 20,000 inhabitants before Russia launched its offensive. It now has a Russian flag flying above its buildings, according to images shared by the Russian Defence Ministry. In an interview with former Ukrainian MP Borislav Bereza this week, Col-Gen Dmytro Marchenko said: ‘I won’t be revealing a military secret if I say that our front has crumbled.’ He went on to cast doubt on Volodymyr Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ for being too reliant on political, economic and military support from Western allies. ‘This plan lacks any points addressing Ukraine or our needs,’ Gen Marchenko added.
A British Army commander who trained Ukrainian soldiers told The Telegraph that one reason for the Russian advance was the Ukrainian army’s struggles to adapt to NATO tactics and weapons. ‘They have continued to refuse to adapt to Western tactics… despite them now receiving Western NATO weapon systems and ammunition,’ he told The Telegraph. But most analysts argue the main driver preventing Kyiv’s troops from successfully defending their territory is a lack of ammunition – something Gen Marchenko alluded to several times in his interview. The sheer numerical superiority of Russia’s artillery batteries and ammunition reserves afford Putin’s forces a significant advantage on the battlefield.
Russian artillery divisions can be deployed in more locations and can sustain a much higher rate of fire than their Ukrainian counterparts, helping to scupper Kyiv’s counterattacks while softening up defensive positions. A recent report published by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank and Open Source Center estimated that Russian artillery attacks are responsible for some 70 percent of Ukrainian casualties. Their research revealed that Russia’s rate of artillery fire has averaged roughly 10,000 rounds per day since the early months of the war which saw peaks as high as 36,000 rounds per day. By contrast, Ukrainian fire rarely exceeded 6,000 and dropped below 1,800 rounds per day by early 2024.
It also surmised that sustaining such an outsized artillery and ammunition advantage is central to Russia’s path to victory, concluding that it is essential for Western countries to provide Ukraine with considerably more ammunition to prevent Russia’s advance. ‘As of August 2024, the Russian theory of victory does not center on major breakthroughs, but rather on the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) as a force capable of defending the breadth (of the frontline),’ the RUSI report read. ‘The Russian leadership likely believes it can kill its way out of the war, and artillery will be key to doing that. ‘So long as Russia maintains a substantial advantage in artillery systems, it can use tactics that will, over time, deplete the AFU of reserves – a critical vulnerability for Ukraine.’ Kyiv therefore is desperate for Western partners to provide more artillery munitions, – and to help maintain and repair spent guns – to manage the widening discrepancy in capabilities on the front lines.
Meanwhile, the provision of long-range missiles would allow Ukraine’s forces to target ammunition dumps, manufacturing facilities, transport links and oil depots, which over time could degrade Moscow’s ability to furnish its frontline troops with a steady supply of shells. The Ukrainian President earlier this month declared his government had illustrated an eight-point plan that he said could end the war with Russia next year. While three of the points remain classified and will be discussed with lawmakers behind closed doors, Zelensky unveiled five steps – the first of which is to secure NATO membership for Ukraine. The plan also calls on the US and UK to authorize long-range strikes into Russian territory, and offers Western partners the opportunity to access Ukraine’s wealth of natural resources via favorable trade and resource-sharing deals in return for help with post-war security and reconstruction efforts. However, Western leaders remain resistant to such a move.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer declared earlier this month following a meeting of American, British, French and German leaders in Berlin that the allied nations would support Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’. But the US, UK and France have refused to allow Ukraine’s armed forces to deploy ATACMS and Storm Shadow missile systems to strike targets on Russian soil, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has not permitted the transfer of his nation’s Taurus missile system to Kyiv. The Kremlin meanwhile has scoffed at Zelensky ‘s plan, declaring the president must ‘sober up’ to the dire situation faced by his armed forces and telling his European backers to cease ‘unnecessary spending’. ‘Most likely, this is the same American plan to fight us to the last Ukrainian, which Zelensky has now camouflaged and called a ”peace plan”,’ Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said, adding that Europe should stop ‘unnecessary spending’ in support of Ukraine.
‘This mobilization of capabilities for ephemeral goals is contrary to the interests of the economic development of these countries, and clearly the capacities of these countries are not designed for such efforts,’ Peskov told reporters earlier this month. ‘In time, we hope, an understanding that such spending is unnecessary will become sharper and will sink in among more and more of the political establishment of these countries.’ Kyiv announced a fresh mobilization drive Tuesday as Moscow seized Selydove and the US said some North Korean troops were in Russia’s Kursk region, warning that thousands more were on their way. Concern has grown in Kyiv and the West over North Korea’s military cooperation with Russia – with neither the Kremlin nor Pyongyang denying that the reclusive country’s troops were in Russia. The Pentagon said a ‘small number’ of Pyongyang’s troops have been deployed in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have held onto land since summer.
Its spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said the US had information that ‘a couple thousand more (North Korean troops) that are either almost there or due to arrive imminently.’ Zelensky spoke with South Korea’s president Yoon Suk Yeol Tuesday and agreed on deeper cooperation, before heading to Iceland today to speak to Nordic allies about more military aid. Ukraine has been struggling with deepening manpower shortages over recent months and is embroiled in an unpopular debate about how to bolster the military’s ranks. Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security Council Oleksandr Lytvynenko told Parliament earlier this week that the army planned to recruit another 160,000 people in the coming months.
Yoon meanwhile said the involvement of North Korean troops in the Ukraine conflict was ‘unprecedented and dangerous’ and warned about the potential transfer of sensitive military technology and combat experience from Moscow to Pyongyang. Ukraine will host a delegation from South Korea to discuss the escalation in the near future, a high-ranking official at the Ukrainian presidency said. At the same time, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui arrived in the far eastern Russian city of Vladivostok, TASS state news agency reported, citing a diplomatic source, who said that ‘tomorrow she will be in Moscow’. Neither Russia nor North Korea – both nuclear-capable states – has denied North Korean troops are in Russia, which on Tuesday escalated long-running nuclear saber-rattling by announcing fresh nuclear drills overseen by Putin.
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