EU officials have been holding ‘crisis talks’ to determine how the continent will fare if Donald Trump wins the presidential election tomorrow.
Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck as they leave their hopes of winning the Oval Office to the American public, with aggregated poll data from FiveThirtyEight suggesting Harris is one point ahead, well within a margin of error.
Following his fractured relationship with the EU during his time as the 45th president, bloc officials have privately said they are extremely worried about what he may do if elected.
EU officials hold ‘crisis talks’ over Donald Trump winning – warning of a ‘cold shower’ for Europe.
They have since learned their lesson since he was in office, believing that taking a tougher stance with him may prove fruitful.
Officials said they have drawn up plans to heavily tax products symbolic of America’s national identity, including Kentucky Bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorbikes, if Trump decides to be bullish with the EU.
These products come from states that are vulnerable to swinging in the 2026 midterm election, which bloc officials believe will pressure Congressional representatives to work against Trump.
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump looks on during a campaign rally at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on November 4, 2024
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, left, visits Old San Juan Cafe as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro looks on during a campaign stop in Reading, Pa., Monday, Nov. 4, 2024
EU officials have privately warned that Trump may not be willing to play ball with the bloc (File image)
‘One of the lessons of the last time was that appeasement doesn’t seem to work with this guy,’ an EU diplomat said.
‘It’s almost like dealing with a schoolyard bully. You give him a firm punch in the nose, and reshape the balance of power,’ they added.
‘We certainly hope that that won’t be necessary. We’d be perfectly content to leave those options in a drawer in the Berlaymont,’ the diplomat said.
The EU is particularly worried about how Trump may change America’s policy on Ukraine and its defence against Russia.
Earlier this month, the billionaire claimed that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was responsible for Russia’s invasion of the eastern European country.
He was quick to add: ‘That doesn’t mean I don’t want to help him because I feel very badly for those people. But he should never have let that war start. The war’s a loser.’
An EU official told the newspaper that if Trump refuses to chip in, the EU will make sure Ukraine stays funded: ‘I think the member states will find a way [to plug the US gap]. The EU will continue financing Ukraine as long as it takes. This isn’t just Ukraine’s security, it’s Europe’s security.’
Trump stands alongside Mr Farage during a campaign rally at Phoenix Goodyear Airport in Goodyear, Arizona, on October 28, 2020
Trump is surrounded by Secret Service agents as leaves the Santander Arena following a campaign rally last night
But another official warned that Trump’s well-known sympathy for Vladimir Putin was a warning for the bloc to ensure that strategy doesn’t rely on America.
‘Strategic autonomy needs to be implemented as soon as possible because our future should not depend on who should be the next president of the United States,’ an EU official said.
The official said the EU had proved it could respond to crisis situations with ‘massive changes’. The source said: ‘The EU is no longer dependent on Russian gas, for example.’
The race has narrowed further, according to J.L. Partners, whose election model shows Trump losing his advantage.
Their latest numbers show that Trump wins in 60.4 percent of simulations. That is his lowest number for a month and means he has dropped eight points in the past week as momentum shifts to Harris.
That moves the overall result from Lean Trump (albeit it by the smallest of margins) into tossup Trump territory.
The former president is now locked in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris on the eve of the presidential election
Swing state probabilities have all changed since yesterday, with particularly notable impacts in Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona.
In Arizona, Trump’s win probability has increased by 6.5 points. It has moved from Likely Trump to Strong Trump.
Michigan saw Harris’ win probability increase by 12.8 points. It is now a Lean Harris state having become Tossup Harris yesterday.
Wisconsin has seen a 16.1 point movement against Trump. The state has shifted from Tossup Trump to Lean Harris.
In his briefing note, data scientist Callum Hunter wrote:
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Memorial Hall at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pa.,
‘The final day of the campaign has seen big movements at the state level in our model. With Michigan and Wisconsin veering strongly towards Harris due to new polls and correlation effects within the model.
‘With these states now considered Harris states, the race has shifted such that Pennsylvania is the deciding state for both campaigns – in 56 percent of simulations Pennsylvania is the deciding state.
‘Whilst October saw Trump’s rise give him multiple routes to the White House, the latest rounds of polling have closed many of those off.
‘Both campaigns are now fighting for Pennsylvania – literally tens of thousands of voters might decide this election and it may come down to the thinnest of margins.
‘As the fog of campaigning lifts on the battleground states the final face-off is set to take place in the Keystone state itself. Brace yourselves. We are in for a very bumpy ride.’
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