Russian sabotage ‘could trigger NATO defence clause’ amid WW3 fears

Russia’s acts of sabotage against Western targets may eventually prompt NATO to consider invoking the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service said. Bundesnachrichtendienst chief Bruno Kahl said during an event of the DGAP think tank in Berlin on Wednesday that he expected Moscow to further step up its hybrid warfare, which could eventually trigger the NATO clause.

‘The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defence clause,’ Kahl noted. ‘At the same time, the increasing ramp up of the Russian military potential means a direct military confrontation with NATO becomes one possible option for the Kremlin.’

Under Article 5, if a NATO member comes under attack, the other members of the alliance are obliged to help it respond. Kahl said that Russia’s military would likely be capable of attacking NATO by the end of the decade. The intelligence chief’s comments have sparked renewed fears that the Ukraine war could escalate into WW3. Sources familiar with US intelligence saying that a nuclear attack was unlikely, despite Vladimir Putin’s increasingly threatening statements.

The recent decision to allow Ukraine to fire US-supplied missiles deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, the sources added. A series of intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded nuclear escalation was unlikely to result from a decision to loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US-supplied weapons.

That view has not changed following President Joe Biden’s changed US stance this month on weapons, said the sources, who were granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence. ‘The assessments were consistent: The ATACMs weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus,’ said one congressional aide briefed on the intelligence, referring to American missiles with a range of up to 190 miles. Russia’s launch of new ballistic missile Oreshnik last week, which analysts say was meant as a warning to Washington and its European allies, has not changed that conclusion.

One of the five US officials who spoke to Reuters said while Washington assessed that Russia would not seek to escalate with its nuclear forces, it would try to match what it views as US escalation. The official said fielding the new missile was part of that effort. This comes after a Russian deserter who worked at a top-secret nuclear base revealed how close Putin was to launching his deadliest weapons on the first day of the Ukraine invasion.

Anton, whose name was changed for safety reasons, said the top-secret nuclear weapons facility he was serving at was on full alert on February 24, 2022, as Russian forces launched attacks on Ukraine. ‘Before that, we had only exercises. But on the day the war started, the weapons were fully in place,’ the Russian deserter told the BBC.’We were ready to launch the forces into the sea and air and, in theory, carry out a nuclear strike.’ This aligns with Putin’s statement at the end of February 2022, when the Russian president said his nuclear deterrence forces had been ordered into a ‘special mode of combat service’.

But a nuclear attack is not the only threat facing the West, as Kahl said Russia was likely stepping up its hybrid warfare. NATO and Western intelligence services have warned that Russia is behind a growing number of hostile activities across the Euro-Atlantic area, ranging from repeated cyber attacks to Moscow-linked arson – all of which Russia denies.

Kahl added that Moscow’s war on Ukraine meant that it had battle-proven troops under its command which raised the threat emanating from its conventional forces, while it also mastered modern drone warfare. But according to the assessment of his experts, high-ranking officials in the Russian defence ministry doubt whether NATO’s Article 5 including US protective measures for Europe would actually be invoked in case of an emergency, the intel chief said. ‘We don’t have any indication yet that Russia intends to go to war, but if such sentiments gain the upper hand in the government in Moscow, then the risk for a military confrontation will grow over the coming years.’

Should Russia attack one or several NATO allies, it would not do so to grab massive swathes of land, Kahl said, but rather to test red lines set by the West with the aim of defeating Western unity and NATO as a defensive alliance. ‘In Russia’s view, this goal would be reached if Article 5 were to remain without effect in case of a Russian attack,’ he said. ‘To meet this target, you don’t need to send tank armies westwards, it is enough to dispatch little green men to the Baltics to protect allegedly threatened Russian minorities or adjust borders on Svalbard’.

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