Champions League last 16 draw analysis: Who goes through?

The first knockout round of the 2017-18 Champions League has been drawn, with five Premier League clubs featuring for the first time.

Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City have all learned their fates, as have holders Real Madrid. 

Here Sportsmail examines the draw, and we give our verdict on who will be making it through to the quarter finals…

The first knockout round of the Champions League has been drawn, with five English clubs

Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur

Juventus 

Group stage performance: Last year’s finalists, without Leonardo Bonucci at the back, have not been as impressive this time around, although they recovered from the opening loss to Barca to navigate a tricky Group D ahead of Sporting Lisbon and Olympiacos.

Key man: The star of Paulo Dybala continues to rise – he has 14 goals in 23 games this season – while Gianluigi Buffon came fourth in this year’s Ballon D’Or, and not thanks to sentiment. The iconic goalkeeper remains among the best No 1 of all time.

Champions League pedigree: Since defeating Ajax on penalties in the 1996 showpiece, it has been a long tale of near misses for Juve, with five final defeats including a hammering from Real Madrid last season in Cardiff. 

Gianluigi Buffon came fourth in this year's Ballon D'Or and remains among the world's best

Gianluigi Buffon came fourth in this year’s Ballon D’Or and remains among the world’s best

Tottenham Hotspur

Group stage performance: The best in Europe. From arguably the Group of Death, Spurs emerged with 16 points – the most of any team – and their reputation on the continent significantly enhanced. The results against Real – a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu and a 3-0 victory at home – were the standouts.

Key man: Who else but Harry Kane? Without his goals, Spurs become a very average Champions League team. With Kane, they are dark horses to win the whole thing.

Champions League pedigree: Quarter finalists on their debut run in 2011 – beating both Milan clubs back when that was impressive – their 2016-17 return resulted in a group stage flop and Europa League football after Christmas.

VERDICT: Spurs will fancy their chances if they play to their best, but the nous and defensive capability of the Italians can see them through. Juventus win. 

With Harry Kane, Tottenham Hotspur are dark horses to win the whole Champions League

With Harry Kane, Tottenham Hotspur are dark horses to win the whole Champions League

Basel v Manchester City

Group stage performance: That late 1-0 win against United in Switzerland, thanks to Michael Lang’s far post finish, proved crucial as they finished second in Group A, three points ahead of CSKA Moscow, who they also defeated in Russia.

Key man: Lang offers crucial goals from right back – eight in 25 games so far this season, making him joint top scorer – while Norwich fans will be shocked to hear that Ricky van Wolfswinkel has been a hit since joining in the summer, with eight goals in 12 games before suffering a fractured metatarsal.

Champions League pedigree: Basel have matched their best performance in the competition, having reached the last 16 in 2012 and 2015.

Michael Lang's winner against United was crucial for Basel as they finished second in Group A

Michael Lang’s winner against United was crucial for Basel as they finished second in Group A

Manchester City

Group stage performance: Shock horror, Pep Guardiola’s side actually suffered a defeat in Group F – in the final game, a dead rubber for them, against Shakhtar Donetsk. Before that, five straight wins showed why City must be considered among the favourites.

Key man: Raheem Sterling. This has the feeling of a breakthrough season for a superb talent who seems like he has been around for ever, by the age of 22. The goal-scoring edge added to his game makes him fearsome.

Champions League pedigree: A semi-final showing in 2016 – where they were outplayed by Real – aside, City have flattered to deceive in Europe so far. 

VERDICT: Basel have proved they are no pushovers, but Manchester City will be rubbing their hands at this draw. They should have too much firepower. Man City win. 

Raheem Sterling is enjoying a breakthrough year in Manchester City's impressive squad

Raheem Sterling is enjoying a breakthrough year in Manchester City’s impressive squad

Porto v Liverpool 

Porto

Group stage performance: With Monaco failing to match their achievements of last season and Leipzig lacking nous in their debut campaign, Porto edge into the last 16 with 10 points. Two hefty wins over the Ligue 1 champions – 5-2 at home, 3-0 away – proved the key.

Key man: Cameroon international striker Vincent Aboubakar has captured the attentions of Premier League front runners. With 20 goals in 22 games this campaign that is no surprise.

Champions League pedigree: Porto in the Champions League always comes back to 2004 and their Jose Mourinho and Ricardo Carvalho-inspired triumph. Since then, Porto have only made the last eight twice, although they won the Europa League in 2011.

Porto striker Vincent Aboubakar has captured the attentions of Premier League front runners

Porto striker Vincent Aboubakar has captured the attentions of Premier League front runners

Liverpool

Group stage performance: On paper it was a breeze for Liverpool – they would have broken the competition goal record had PSG not done the same thing, thanks to two 7-0 wins. In reality, three draws from six mean there are questions to be answered.

Key man: Mo Salah. Burst onto the scene in the Champions League with Basel, failed to make the grade at Chelsea, and now back with a vengeance. Coutinho, Firmino and Sadio Mane are all crucial, but none of them have the scoring touch and sheer energy combined of the Egyptian.

Champions League pedigree: Talk to any Liverpool fan for 30 seconds and you will be made well aware of their European heritage. The 2005 champions, however, will be in the knockouts for the first time in nine years this season.

VERDICT: Liverpool rose to the occasion when needed to dismiss Spartak Moscow and book their last 16 place. The ‘Fab Four’ should fire again here. Liverpool win.

Mo Salah has massively impressed since joining Liverpool's attacking line last summer

Mo Salah has massively impressed since joining Liverpool’s attacking line last summer

Sevilla v Manchester United

Sevilla

Group stage performance: The long-time kings of the Europa League reached the last 16 as the only side with a single-figure points score – nine from their six games. Coming back from 3-0 down at home to Liverpool to draw 3-3 was important.

Key man: Ever Banega. The summer signing from Inter Milan is the engine room of the Sevilla midfield, whether in an anchor role or in a more forward position. He ran the second half against Liverpool to devastating effect.

Champions League pedigree: Europa League winners in three straight seasons (2014, 15, 16), Sevilla are yet to really break ground at the top level, and have never made it beyond this stage. Leicester City beat them here last season.

Ever Banega is the Sevilla engine room, whether in an anchor role or in a more forward position

Ever Banega is the Sevilla engine room, whether in an anchor role or in a more forward position

Manchester United 

Group stage performance: Mostly untroubled for Jose Mourinho’s troops, who won their opening four games in comfort. A slip in in Basel in game five meant they technically needed a point to win the group against CSKA Moscow in their final fixture – although in reality anything other than a six-goal defeat would have sufficed. They won 2-1.

Key man: Paul Pogba. While injuries and suspensions have stopped the £89million midfielder truly dominating as United would have hoped, we are finally starting to see signs of true class in his second season back at Old Trafford.

Champions League pedigree: Historically, among the very best. Since the competition was reorganised in 1992 United are the only English team to have won it twice, in 1999 and 2008. More recently, this is United’s first time in the knockout stages since 2014.

VERDICT: United will have to raise their game after sailing through the group, but should have enough to step up and see off Sevilla. Man United win. 

Paul Pogba is starting to show signs of true class in his second season at Manchester United

Paul Pogba is starting to show signs of true class in his second season at Manchester United

Paris St Germain v Real Madrid

PSG

Group stage performance: Frightening. A 3-1 defeat in their final Group B game against Bayern Munich could not dethrone them from first place, having previously beaten the Germans 3-0. In a pool also containing Celtic and Anderlecht, they scored 25 goals in six games – a competition record.

Key man: While PSG are packed with world class talent, there is no-one above Neymar. Whether his stay is long term remains to be seen, but he has had no issues settling in France, with six goals in this competition alone. 

Champions League pedigree: It’s all about the future for PSG, their history in this cup is nothing special. They were knocked out in the quarter finals four years in a row until last season – where they blew a 4-0 first leg lead over Barcelona in the last 16, going out 6-5 on aggregate after an astonishing return game at the Nou Camp.

PSG are the favourites for the Champions League - no surprise as they have Neymar up front

PSG are the favourites for the Champions League – no surprise as they have Neymar up front

Real Madrid

Group stage performance: The holders – and first ever team to win back to back Champions Leagues since the 1992 re-branding – never looked like going out, but once Spurs hit their stride it was second place for Real; and second place never goes down well at the Bernabeu.

Key man: Cristiano Ronaldo. With his five Ballon D’Ors and record number of Champions League goals, there remains no player for the big stage like CR7.

Champions League pedigree: Remember the days when Real went out in the round of 16 six seasons in a row (between 2005 and 2010), or their 12 year absence from the final until 2014? It’s easy to forget when a team wins Europe’s biggest honour three times in the past four seasons, and six times since 1992.

VERDICT: Unquestionably the tie of the round. If PSG finally handle the pressure they can progress – and Real will be the ultimate test. PSG win.

Cristiano Ronaldo and Real Madrid are chasing a third successive Champions League victory

Cristiano Ronaldo and Real Madrid are chasing a third successive Champions League victory

Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma

Shakhtar Donetsk

Group stage performance: Despite being top seeds, Shakhtar were pegged for a battle for third place against Feyenoord while City and Napoli battled for top spot. As it was Shakhtar beat Napoli 2-1 in their opening game and never let go of their qualifying spot.

Key man: Facundo Ferreyra couldn’t get a game in his single season at Newcastle United, yet is a totally different prospect for the Ukranians. He has 20 goals this season already.

Champions League pedigree: Shakhtar have made the knockouts previously but it has rarely ended well. Their only quarter final in 2011 saw them lose 6-1 on aggregate to Barca. They last reached the knockouts in 2015, and got spanked 7-0 by Bayern.

Facundo Ferreyra led the Shakhtar Donetsk line as they made it through Group F

Facundo Ferreyra led the Shakhtar Donetsk line as they made it through Group F

Roma

Group stage performance: Few seriously backed the Italians to top a pool containing Chelsea and Atletico Madrid, but when push came to shove the Romans emerged victorious in Group C, a 3-0 hammering of the Premier League champions standing out.

Key man: Radja Nainggolan. Seemingly linked with a Premier League side every transfer window, the blond-mohicaned Belgian is one of Europe’s finest holding midfielders who packs a rocket shot.

Champions League pedigree: Their best displays came in the mid-2000s, when they reached the last eight in successive years but were beaten by Manchester United both times. They last reached the knockouts in 2016.

VERDICT: The hardest tie to predict, with Roma impressing at times – having to travel to a Shakhtar side who navigated a tough group is a big ask. Shakhtar win. 

Roma's Radja Nainggolan is one of Europe's finest holding midfielders who packs a rocket shot

Roma’s Radja Nainggolan is one of Europe’s finest holding midfielders who packs a rocket shot

Chelsea v Barcelona

Chelsea

Group stage performance: It started like a dream for the Blues – a 6-0 battering of Qarabag and a hugely impressive 2-1 victory away to Atletico. However they were bested by Roma over two games, and fell into second on the final day with a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge against the Spaniards.

Key man: Alvaro Morata. Chelsea have hardly noticed the absence and imminent departure of Diego Costa, with the former Juventus and Real Madrid striker settling quickly into English football.

Champions League pedigree: Became the first London team to win the competition when Didier Drogba rolled his penalty home to defeat Bayern Munich in a 2012 shoot-out. Also losing finalists  – again via penalties – in 2008.

Alvaro Morata has made a seamless transfer into English football since his summer move

Alvaro Morata has made a seamless transfer into English football since his summer move

Barcelona

Group stage performance: Beating Juventus 3-0 in the opening game was the key, and set up a mostly serene passage through as group winners for Barca. Successive goalless draws away to Olympiacos and Juve were the most minor of hiccups.

Key man: Saying Lionel Messi is the key figure for Barca is very obvious – and his new contract at the club is huge cause for celebration – but Gerard Pique is almost of equal importance; they are not the same without him at the back.

Champions League pedigree: When three quarter final eliminations in the past four seasons is considered a blip, you know you have pedigree. Barca have won the Champions League four times – and the final version of the old European Cup in 1992.

VERDICT: A nightmare draw for Chelsea, as they face off for the first time since the 2012 semi-final. Barca must be backed for revenge. Barcelona win. 

Barcelona beat Juventus in the opening game of Group D and never looked back from there

Barcelona beat Juventus in the opening game of Group D and never looked back from there

Bayern Munich v Besiktas

Bayern Munich

Group stage performance: 15 points from five matches and simple passage to the knockouts would be cause for celebration for most sides – but Bayern are not most teams. The 3-0 defeat to PSG cost Carlo Ancelotti his job, with Jupp Heynckes drafted in to provide safe passage through Group B.

Key man: Robert Lewandowski. While Arjen Robben is still cutting in from the right in his mid-30s to great effect, Bayern are heavily reliant on arguably the world’s best No 9. Lewandowski is a proven scorer at the highest level and when fully fit is close to unstoppable. 

Champions League pedigree: Impressive. Bayern have won the Champions League in its current guise twice, in 2001 and 2013, and finished runners-up on a further three occasions.

Bayern Munich are chasing their third  title with Robert Lewandowski leading the charge

Bayern Munich are chasing their third title with Robert Lewandowski leading the charge

Besiktas

Group stage performance: While Porto, Monaco and RB Leipzig is not the most glamorous group, the Turkish champions took full advantage to top it with 14 points.

Key man: Turkey international striker Cenk Tosun bagged four in Group G and has 12 this season to far. He is ably assisted by Alvaro Negredo, to the general astonishment of Manchester City and Middlesbrough fans.

Champions League pedigree: This is the first time Besiktas – still holders of the worst ever Champions League defeat from their 8-0 beating off Liverpool in 2007 – have ever made the knockout stage.

VERDICT: Besiktas will look to impress, but they are inexperienced at this level and could be exposed by a ruthless Bayern team. Bayern Munich win. 

Besiktas, featuring Alvaro Negredo up top, are in the knockout stages for the very first time

Besiktas, featuring Alvaro Negredo up top, are in the knockout stages for the very first time



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