Afghanistan is once again becoming a hotbed for terrorist activity, experts have warned, as an emboldened Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) consolidates its power and expands its worldwide network of jihadists.
Last week’s devastating attack on Moscow, in which some 143 civilians were gunned down in an operation claimed by the Afghanistan-based terror group, sparked fresh fears in Europe that the threat of Islamic extremism is resurgent.
Professor of Security Studies at King’s College London , Dr Peter Neumann, told MailOnline how ISIS-K’s increasing strength could bring about more terror attacks on European capitals. ‘The jihadist threat (in Afghanistan) has become significant. It used to be stagnating, if not declining, in the years after 2018, when ISIS in Syria and Iraq was defeated.
But two developments changed that. ‘First, Hamas’ attacks against Israel on October 7 and the resulting conflict, which activated and mobilised Islamists and jihadists on an unprecedented scale. ‘And second, the growing ambition of ISIS-K, which is currently the only ISIS affiliate capable of carrying out terrorist attacks in non-Muslim countries and is aggressively pursuing a strategy for doing so.’
ISIS-Khorasan is a branch of Islamic State which takes its name from an old Persian term for the region that included parts of Iran, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, as well as areas of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Having emerged from the rubble of its parent organisation that was largely defeated in 2017 – 2018, it has undergone a transformation into one of the world’s most fearsome terrorist movements. ISIS-K grabbed global attention with a 2021 self-murder bombing on Kabul international airport during the U.S. military withdrawal that killed 13 U.S. soldiers and scores of civilians.
Then in September 2022 it claimed responsibility for a deadly self-murder attack at the Russian embassy in Kabul. But perhaps its most brazen operation prior to the slaughter of 143 concertgoers in Moscow came in January, with a double self murder bombing in Iran that killed nearly 100 people at a memorial for Revolutionary Guard commander, Qassem Soleimani – the deadliest militant attack on Iranian soil since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Along with Al-Qaeda and a smattering of other smaller extremist movements, ISIS-K maintains a presence in Afghanistan under the Taliban, which despite being opposed to ISIS-K lacks the military strength and resources to eliminate its safe havens. But unlike its competitors, ISIS-K is capable of operations far from its bases in the borderlands of Afghanistan.
It has aggressively recruited in neighbouring regions, particularly in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, to establish a regional network of jihadist fighter cells that could help execute international attacks, according to a January 2024 UN report. Dr Neumann, who is also a founder of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), said the pull-out of Western troops from Afghanistan and Iraq allowed ISIS-K to cultivate its strength.
‘Western troops were very active in combating terrorists during the last years of their presence in Afghanistan. ‘They put a lot of pressure on them. That’s gone now. And even though the Taliban are hostile to ISIS-K, they don’t have the same capacity as Western forces, so counter-terrorism has been much less of a priority in Afghanistan in recent years. ‘Since ISIS’s caliphate was essentially defeated in 2018, the jihadist threat was often believed to be over… but it’s never gone away completely. In fact, there are plenty of indications that it’s resurgent.’
Now, the threat of more high-profile attacks in Western countries is growing as the group seeks to ‘outperform’ other extremist movements. ‘ISIS-K seeks to outperform rival jihadis by carrying out more audacious attacks to distinguish its brand, poach from rivals, and gain resources from potential supporters,’ said Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert on South Asia security at the U.S. Institute of Peace, a government research body based in Washington. Frank McKenzie, the former head of US Central Command, which covers Central Asia and the Middle East, as well as part of South Asia, said the Moscow attack was indicative of ISIS-K’s long-term objective of increasing its foreign operations, including against the United States. ‘They remain determined to attack us and our homeland,’ said McKenzie, who was the head of U.S. forces in the region during the withdrawal from Afghanistan. ‘I think the odds of that are probably higher now than they were a couple of years ago.’
Authorities in several European countries made a spate of arrests of alleged ISIS-K recruits in July and December last year, accused of plotting terror attacks. But Christine Abizaid, director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, said in November that ISIS-K had so far used ‘inexperienced operatives’ to attempt attacks in Europe, suggesting its capabilities are increasing. France, which will host the Olympic Games from late July, said late on Sunday it was raising its terror alert warning to its highest level following the shootings in Moscow. Meanwhile, a day before the Moscow attack, a top U.S. military officer told the House Armed Services Committee that Taliban efforts to suppress ISIS-K in Afghanistan were proving insufficient.
General Michael ‘Erik’ Kurilla, the commander of US Central Command, said in written testimony that the Taliban had targeted some senior ISIS-K leaders but did not have the ability nor intent to maintain pressure on the group. This had allowed ISIS-K to regenerate its networks, he said in a Senate committee meeting last month. ‘ISIS-Khorasan retains the capability and will to attack U.S. and Western interests abroad in as little as six months and with little to no warning.’
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