Airlines turn to AI to tackle the rising threat of turbulence

Airlines are turning to artificial intelligence to tackle the rising threat of turbulence, following a series of aerial disasters that left one man dead and over 100 injured. The tech is already being used to try and predict the exact locations of potentially deadly pockets of hazardous air that could strike planes, as well as improving flight efficiency and safety. It’s one of a host of radical safety measures being eyed up by aviation giants worldwide, who are scrambling to combat a surge in turbulence incidents globally.

Among the plans being looked at include passengers being urged to stay belted up for entire flights, and airlines rolling out new technology to better warn pilots of dangerous conditions on their flight paths. One firm is even looking at developing a new ‘turbulence cancelling’ system that would seek to prevent planes from being buffeted and rocked by windy weather. The kit is the brainchild of Austrian firm Turbulence Solutions, and is already being used by two-seater aircraft in Europe – with hopes it could be introduced to larger passenger jets in the 2030s.

It involves fitting small, fast-reacting flaps on the wings to generate vertical lift when airflow forces the plane downwards, which reacts rapidly to turbulence to create a smoother journey for passengers. ‘We generate a counter turbulence to counter the motion, and it just cancels out like birds which fly with a very steady head and use instead their wings to counteract the wind flow,’ Turbulence Solutions’ founder Andras Galffy told the Telegraph . The aerial safety race comes after a Singapore Airlines passenger died when the aircraft he was flying in was hit by severe turbulence last month.

Holidaymakers traveling from Heathrow to Singapore were violently thrown around the cabin after the Boeing 777-300ER plummeted 6,000ft in a matter of minutes. The nightmarish journey claimed the life of British man Geoffrey Kitchen (pictured), 73, who died from a suspected heart attack, with 104 people taken to Bangkok’s Samitivej Hospital for treatment. Mr Kitchen’s death was the first connected to the phenomenon in 23 years – and follows the safest year recorded for air travel in 2023, with no fatal accidents involving passenger jets anywhere in the world.

But days later, a Dublin-bound service operated by Qatar Airways was buffeted over Turkey, leaving 12 people injured – prompting widespread concern by aviation firms. Airline chiefs say it’s not clear whether the rise in turbulence is due to increasingly erratic weather patterns, global warming , or is simply a result of the number of flights increasing by more than two-thirds in the past two decades. Turbulence comes in two forms. The best understood is encountered in clouds and at its most severe in thunderstorms, where jets can rise and fall sharply as they encounter rapidly moving air. Modern weather forecasting and radars mean that the cumulonimbus formations which pose a risk are easily detectable, with aircraft able to divert or change their flight levels to avoid the conditions.

However, what proves trickier to work out is the so-called clear air turbulence – what was once described as a ‘rough patch of air’. Striking in cloudless skies, it can cause jets to rattle and shake, toppling drinks and – in the extreme – flinging passengers into the air. Such conditions are often encountered along the flanks of mountain ranges, where air is forced rapidly higher. Changes in windspeeds associated with planes moving in and out of jet streams in the upper atmosphere are also a trigger. A preliminary report by The Transport Safety Investigation Bureau (TSIB) into the Singapore Airlines disaster found the airliner was hit by an updraft at 37,000ft, causing it to violently jolt up and down for almost five seconds.

As airlines around the world fear they could be the next to suffer a serious incident, 21 across the world have signed up to the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) ‘turbulence aware’ program. The initiative was launched in 2018 and aims to help alert carriers to the location of turbulent air pockets. It uses data from thousands of flights to provide real-time information on optimal flight paths. Although only 21 of the group’s 330 members have so far signed up to the platform, the IATA says there has been a surge of interest following the Singapore incident. The IATA said turbulence was the biggest cause of in-cabin injuries, alongside burns from hot drinks and strains from lifting heavy bags. Pictured: This graphic shows the areas on the plane were passengers have the best chance of avoiding being injured during turbulence.

The US Federal Aviation Administration lists 163 injuries as having been caused by turbulence in the 10 years to 2022, with the majority suffered by cabin crew and only 34 by passengers. Meanwhile, a 2023 study by researchers at the University of Reading found that in 1979, there were around 17.7 hours of severe turbulence over an average point above the Atlantic Ocean. By 2020, this had jumped to 27.4 hours, an boom of 55 percent. Sir Tim Clark (pictured), president of the airline Emirates, said the problem has been one airline chiefs have known about for decades but claimed recent incidents had prompted the industry to scramble. ‘It’s a real race and the whole industry is now upping in the game with regard to making sure that passengers are strapped in. We are looking at all the protocols,’ he said.

Singapore Airlines has already tweaked its policy after the May 21 incident – no longer providing hot drinks and meals when the seatbelt sign is on. Sir Tim added: ‘We’re trying to use a bit of AI to give us a predictive analytic capability with regard to where turbulence is, but it’s very difficult.’ The UK Civil Aviation Authority – responsible for the regulation of aviation safety in Britain – currently says: ‘You are recommended to keep your belt fastened throughout the flight, and must do so whenever the “seat belt” sign is on.’ Despite recent incidents, pilots have insisted that although turbulence can be worrying, the conditions often aren’t a huge threat for airliners. ‘Modern aircraft are incredibly strong and pilots are trained and ready for turbulence,’ says British Airways captain Steve Allright, who runs the airline’s Flying with Confidence course for nervous passengers.

He says most turbulence is triggered by changes in the speed or direction of winds around a plane, and is a bit like a car driving over bumps in the road. ‘It can be uncomfortable but it’s totally safe.’ Virgin Atlantic cabin crew member Jennie Jordan says that although passengers can be terrified by turbulence she’s never seen anyone injured by it in nearly two decades of flying. While Virgin Atlantic insisted it keeps its policies under constant review and would ‘take all industry occurrences into consideration to continuously strengthen our safety management approach’. ‘The health, safety and security of our customers and people is always our top priority,’ added a spokesman.

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