Iran ‘s launch of nearly 200 ballistic missiles into the very heart of Israel on Tuesday has brought the conflict in the Middle East to boiling point. The Israel Defense Forced (IDF) have promised ‘consequences’. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Tehran ‘will pay’. But it’s the detail of how such threats play out that will determine the shape of both the region and the wider world for decades to come. No one doubts that full-scale war is in prospect.
After Iran launched drone attack on Tel Aviv in April, Israel confined itself to a single mission in response – taking out an anti-aircraft radar system in the central Iranian city of Isfahan. It was a symbolic ‘pin-prick’ designed to avoid further escalation. This time there is internal pressure for a way more drastic response, including from normally moderate voices. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, for example, has demanded major raids deep into the heart of Isreal’s enemy: ‘We must act now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime,’ he wrote on X.
Many believe this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Israel to re-shape the Middle East. With Iran’s proxy army on the Lebanese border, Hezbollah, largely decapitated – an estimated 90 percent or more of terror group’s leadership is dead – Tehran looks vulnerable. Impotent in attack – failing to land its missiles on Tel Aviv for a second time, thanks to Israel’s incomparable ‘Iron Dome’ air defense system – Iran is also weak in defense, unable to counter the technologically advanced Israeli Air Force. Yet the risks for Israel are very real when it comes to a retaliatory attack. Fearful of the conflagration that could follow, the rest of the world urges restraint.
If Israel were to mount a serious assault on Iran, then it would probably do so alone, and at a time when it is already tied up fighting on its northern and southern borders. Iran would be a third front – a daunting prospect. It is unclear how Israel’s enemy to the north, Syria, would react in that scenario. It doesn’t have much of an air force but it does have a fearsome armory of rockets. Then there is Moscow, which backs both Iran and Syria. Anything President Putin can do to prolong such a conflict will raise the value of Russian oil exports and further distract from his own murderous invasion of Ukraine. The one thing beyond doubt is that Israel has an extraordinary array of resources, military and human, at its disposal. When it chooses to hit Iran, it could do so in many ways.
Air strikes. Israel has one of the strongest air forces in the world, based mainly on American F-16 fighters and multi-role F-35s, used for surveillance and bombing. As it showed in its attack on the Isfahan air base in April, Israel can readily enter the Iranian airspace and without taking losses. It can operate at huge distances, too, as it demonstrated last weekend when it hit Houthi targets in Yemen using a combination of F-35s and veteran Boeing 707 refueling planes. Now, Israel’s air force has a range of potential targets in view, including bases used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the sites from which Tuesday’s missiles were fired. Iran’s opposition media and bloggers have lent a helping hand, deliberately uploading videos of previous launches so that Israeli analysts can identify the locations. Some boneheaded regime propagandists have unwittingly done the same.
Israel might also seek to destroy Iran’s vital infrastructure such as oil refineries. Iran is the third biggest producer of crude oil in the OPEC group of oil-producing countries and currently exports more than 1.5 million barrels a day, mainly to China, but also to India. If it wants to hit the economic jugular, Israel could target the country’s only export terminal at Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf. However, there is some speculation that Iran has already moved to strengthen its air defenses in anticipation of such a strike, with Putin’s help. One of Russia’s giant Ilyushin 76 military cargo plane was recently spotted on the tarmac at Tehran. It might just be a coincidence, but Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin landed on Monday for talks with Iranian President Massed Pezeshkian.
Missiles from land or sea. It prefers to rely on the air force, but Israel has plenty of stand-alone missiles, too. The arsenal includes both ballistic missiles, which fly high and fast but predictably, and cruise missiles, which cling to the contours of the ground below but can maneuver. These cruise missiles include the Icebreaker, which could be launched from a distance of many hundreds of miles, well beyond the sight of Iranian radar. Israel’s land-based Jericho 3 missiles can reach anywhere in Iran. Sea-launched Lora missiles can be fired from container ships or camouflaged vessels in the waters south of Iran. Israel also has five German-made Dolphin class submarines armed with cruise missiles. These could easily be deployed to the south-east of Iran in the Gulf of Arabia, giving them a surprise angle of attack. The missiles on the Dolphins are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, but those are very unlikely to be deployed except against the threat of a deadly Iranian attack and the prospect of mass casualties.
Boots on the ground. Although Israel has committed troops both to Gaza and the Lebanese border, it is unlikely to deploy them to Iran, a country that, though impoverished, is well-supplied with infantry. Israel, in contrast, is a small country where even minor casualties are seriously felt. The recent loss of eight IDF fighters in Lebanon was a blow. After nearly a year of fighting, Israel’s army – largely comprised of reservists – is said to be exhausted. And the strain on the economy of such a long deployment cannot be ignored.
Cyber attack. Israel is at the forefront of electronic espionage and warfare – and we can expect these to be part of any major counter-operation. Israel famously used computer warfare to sabotage Iran’s nuclear projects in 2010, when it used the Stuxnet virus to disable Iran’s efforts to enrich uranium – part of its attempt to build a bomb. Iran’s nuclear facilities certainly remain a key target today. But computer viruses could also be used to disable military communications systems or even Iran’s energy grid. Attacks on telecommunications systems are a standard part of battle-planning these days – and Israel is a world leader in phone and spyware. Commercial Israeli firms such as NSO, responsible for Pegasus spyware, have strong links to the IDF.
Assassinations. Israel turned Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies into mini-bombs just a few weeks ago. It is entirely possible something similar now lurks in Iran. Israel’s intelligence agency has shown it has few rivals when it comes to targeting individuals – including key Iranian personnel. Several nuclear scientists, held to pose a mortal danger to Israel, have already been assassinated. One hugely symbolic target would be Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He is said to be in hiding in a ‘safe space’, if such a place exists today.
Surprise… Attacks from unexpected directions are another possibility. Israel’s air force could approach Iran across neighboring Arab states, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, for example. Shia Iran’s aggression and its attempts at regional dominance are resented by many of its Sunni rivals, who might quietly cooperate with Israel. The ex-Soviet republic, Azerbaijan, just to the north of Iran, could also be among Israel’s unlikely allies. Azerbaijan supplies about 40 per cent of Israel’s oil. Moreover, the fledgling state fears Iran’s ambition to ‘recover’ it as historic Iranian territory. Many believe it has been privately cooperating with Israel already. It is understood that Israeli and US forces are secretly stationed in Azerbaijan to keep an eye on Iran – and perhaps to launch special operations from there.
The ‘nuclear’ option. Israel could use its famed bunker-busting missiles to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, where scientists are working with enriched uranium capable of being used in missile warheads. Even if the facilities are not completely destroyed, the reverberations of a sustained attack could disrupt the delicate equipment involved. We have seen Israel use bunker-busting bombs in recent days, when a series of carefully timed and repeated explosions killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, even though he was hiding underground in Lebanon. But attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, many hidden amid mountainous terrain, are not as straightforward. Most analysts believe Israel would need American permission and its active logistical help. As of last night, that’s not forthcoming, with President Biden issuing a clear ‘no’ when asked by journalists if he would back Israel in such a mission.
While Israel had a right to respond to Iran, he said, it should be ‘proportionate’. The rest of the world is praying that one side or the other finds an ‘off-ramp’, some way of excusing itself from the escalating conflict. Yet, neither Ayatollah Khamenei nor Netanyahu can afford to be the first to ‘blink’ without facing opposition at home. Each wants to prove they won’t be pushed around. As by far the stronger of the two, Israel can afford to de-escalate first. But that’s not an easy thing to say in Tel Aviv, still smoldering from Tuesday’s huge Iranian barrage. And backing off first is hardly Netanyahu’s style.
Want more stories like this from the Daily Mail? Hit the follow button above for more of the news you need.
***
Read more at DailyMail.co.uk