Australia’s gun laws adopted after the Port Arthur massacre have prevented at least 16 more mass shootings, according to new research.
The study was published in a medical journal on Tuesday, showing the substantial effect gun control laws have had since being enacted in 1996, after 35 people were killed by Martin Bryant armed with a semi-automatic rifle.
Researchers found 13 shootings, in which at least five people died, occurred in Australia in the 18 years up to the massacre, while none have happened since.
Australia’s gun laws adopted after the Port Arthur massacre (pictured) have prevented at least 16 more mass shootings, according to new research
The study was published on Tuesday, showing the effect gun laws have had since being enacted in 1996, after 35 people were killed by Martin Bryant (pictured) armed with a semi-automatic rifle
Researchers found 13 shootings, in which at least five people died, occurred in Australia in the 18 years up to the massacre (pictured), while none have happened since
Between January 1979 and June 1996, the mass shootings occurred at a rate of about three every four years, the Annals of Internal Medicine research shows.
Had this rate continued, Australia would have had a further 16.3 shootings by March 2018.
The maths research aimed to dispel naysayers’ ‘null hypothesis’ about gun control – which suggests mass shootings are too rare to draw appropriate statistical conclusions from.
Gun control skeptics include the US National Rifle Association, who responded to Australia’s laws by saying: ‘Such episodes are rare enough that it would be statistically incorrect for gun control supporters to draw a cause-and-effect conclusion.’
The research aimed to dispel naysayers’ ‘null hypothesis’ about gun control – which suggests mass shootings are too rare to draw appropriate statistical conclusions from (pictured is October’s Las Vegas shooting)
Skeptics include the US National Rifle Association, who responded to Australia’s laws by saying: ‘It it would be statistically incorrect for gun control supporters to draw a cause-and-effect conclusion’ (pictured is Florida high school gunman Nikolas Cruz)
Meanwhile, former International Coalition for Women in Shooting and Hunting chair, Samara McPhedran, said it’s possible the mass shootings in the years before 1996 were a ‘statistical anomaly’.
She added: ‘Mass shootings are rare events, and the long gap between incidents post-1996 may simply reflect a return to a more ‘normal’ state of affairs, similar to the years before 1987.’
But the research contended this ‘rare events’ theory using statistical analysis, finding the probability of the current 22-year absence of mass shootings occurring in the 18 years before 1987 was about 1 in 200,000.
Study co-author professor Simon Chapman attributed the study results to former prime minister John Howard’s leadership in response to the Port Arthur massacre.
Research found the probability of the current 22-year absence of mass shootings occurring in the 18 years before 1987 was about 1 in 200,000 (pictured is a victim of the Port Arthur massacre)
Study co-author professor Simon Chapman attributed the study results to former prime minister John Howard’s (pictured in 1996) leadership in response to the Port Arthur massacre
Laws came after Bryant (pictured), then 28, opened fire on tourists and locals, including some children, killing 35 and injuring another 23 in what was the world’s deadliest massacre at the time
‘John Howard’s historic leadership in implementing our gun law reforms therefore seems likely to have averted some 16 mass shootings in this country,’ he wrote in a column for the Sydney Morning Herald.
‘In Australia, we’ve never been able to buy fully automatic machine guns, and since 1996 we haven’t been able to buy semi-automatic rifles and shotguns. As our research shows, many lives have been saved.’
The National Firearms Agreement was enacted across Australia in 1996, which included uniform gun registration, locked storage, a ban on private gun sales and civilian ownership of semi-automatic rifles and pump-action shotguns.
Laws came after Bryant, then 28, drove a yellow Volvo into Port Arthur, Tasmania, armed with a sports bag full of ammunition and a military-style semi-automatic rifle.
He then opened fire on tourists and locals, including some children, killing 35 and injuring another 23 in what was the world’s deadliest massacre at the time.