Bombshell election poll shows who needs to prepare for one of the worst election losses in decades – as the MPs tipped to lose their seats are revealed

• Coalition set for worst loss since 1946
• Blame game begins among senior MPs

By HARRISON CHRISTIAN and CAMERON CARPENTER FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA

Published: 23:13 BST, 30 April 2025 | Updated: 23:46 BST, 30 April 2025

A bombshell new poll shows the Coalition under Peter Dutton is headed for its worst election defeat in almost eighty years. 

YouGov’s latest poll projects Labor to secure 84 seats in this weekend’s election, well ahead of the Coalition on just 47 seats – the Liberal-National Coalition’s lowest seat count since 1946. 

Meanwhile independents were predicted to win 14 seats, the Greens 3 seats, and Centre Alliance and Katter’s Australian Party were both tipped to win one seat.

The poll puts Anthony Albanese’s Labor ahead with 52.9 per cent of the national two-party-preferred vote, compared to 47.1 per cent for the Coalition. That result would see the Coalition lose 11 seats from its 2022 tally. 

Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov, said Labor is poised to win an increased majority. 

‘This is a dramatic campaign turnaround considering our data in February pointed to a likely Coalition government,’ Mr Smith said.

‘YouGov’s MRP shows Labor will now win decisively in the outer suburban and regional marginal seats that tend to decide Australian elections.

‘It was in these types of electorates where the Coalition was leading just a couple of months ago.’

The Liberal-National Coalition is on track to secure its lowest seat count since 1946, a new poll shows

Dan Tehan (pictured) was one of the Coalition MPs projected to lose his seat in Saturday’s election

Although the Greens are expected to retain at least three seats,  Labor is in close contention in Brisbane and Griffith, where three-way preference flows will be critical. 

Both major parties are forecast to see lower primary vote shares than in 2022 – Labor on 31.4 per cent and the Coalition on 31.1 per cent – amid rising support for independents and minor parties. 

All sitting independents were expected to win their seats, while independent and Labor candidates were also predicted to take seats that elected Coalition MPs in 2022.

In particular, Liberal MP Dan Tehan, Shadow Cabinet Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, was set to lose Wannon to Independent challenger Alex Dyson.

Liberal MP David Coleman, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, was on course to be defeated in Banks by Labor candidate Zhi Soon. 

And Liberal MP Michael Sukkar, Shadow Cabinet Minister for Housing and Social Services, was set to lose in Deakin to Labor’s Matt Gregg.

It comes after YouGov projected the likelihood of a Labour government at just one per cent in February, Now that likelihood has been changed to 97 per cent. 

A blame game has begun inside the Liberal party as MPs try to pinpoint what went wrong. 

YouGov’s latest poll projects Labor to secure 84 seats in this weekend’s election, well ahead of the Coalition on just 47 seats

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor (pictured right) was blamed by one MP for the Coalition’s poor performance on the campaign trail

‘We’re unprepared for this election,’ a senior MP told The Daily Telegraph. 

‘Policy development – even campaign preparation – it just feels like we got surprised there’s an election on. How could that happen?’

‘All our policy has been late,’ another MP said. 

‘it’s been too late to explain it, it’s been too late to convince the electorate and a lot of it has been done on the fly… like the fuel (excise cut) thing. It’s been great but it was done on the fly.’ 

Another MP pointed the blame at shadow treasurer Angus Taylor.

‘Angus had three years to write a tax policy and he just didn’t do it,’ the member said.

‘He was too busy running for the leadership.’

Anthony AlbanesePeter Dutton

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Bombshell election poll shows who needs to prepare for one of the worst election losses in decades – as the MPs tipped to lose their seats are revealed

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