Under Catalan law, the regional parliament is permitted to declare independence within 48 hours of referendum results being announced.
But the results from the October 1 poll were released the following day, showing about 90 per cent of the 2.3 million voters who turned out backed independence.
And yet regional president Carles Puigdemont has not unilaterally declared independence in his speech – he merely said he has a mandate to split from Spain while stopping short of actually doing so, suspending secession for ‘a few weeks’ to pursue negotiations with the Spanish government.
What would have happened if Catalonia had unilaterally declared independence?
A full declaration of secession – or an outright proclamation of a new Catalan Republic – would have been met with fierce opposition by central Spanish authorities, who could take the unprecedented step of suspending the self-government of Catalonia and taking over some or all powers in the region.
Puigdemont himself – alongside other independence leaders – could even have ended up in prison. Last week Josep Lluis Trapero, police chief of the region, was questioned by a judge – though he was not charged.
Will Spain impose direct rule on the region?
Direct rule of Catalonia could be imposed upon the region by Spain under the country’s constitution.
Article 155 of the 1978 document permits the central government to take control in the case of a crisis.
While that is considered unlikely, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party is in control of the Senate – and could effect the imposition of rule from Madrid.
What about an election?
There could be fresh elections in Catalonia in a bid to energise the large anti-independence bloc in the region and thus end the crisis in favour of the status quo.
But it could also go the other way and result in a further endorsement of independence by the prosperous region.
What has the world said?
In Brussels, European Council President Donald Tusk pleaded directly with the Catalan leadership before the speech to choose dialogue rather than a divisive call for independence.
‘I ask you to respect in your intentions the constitutional order and not to announce a decision that would make such a dialogue impossible,’ he said.
Italy’s foreign minister also dismissed the declaration of independence.
Angelino Alfano called the move ‘unacceptable’ on his Twitter account. He wrote that ‘our trust is in the Spanish government, it will guarantee the rights of all citizens.’
There is also the lingering question of how a unilateral declaration of independence would be received internationally.
Kosovo, for example, declared independence from Serbia in 2008 but has struggled to win global approval.
Are there any other options?
Another way the crisis could be solved is if Spain comes to an agreement with Catalonia to expand its autonomy after certain powers were revoked in 2010.
Of course, it is also possible that Spain could change its constitution to permit a legal referendum on independence to take place and settle the question once and for all.