Scott Morrison has shot down predictions Australia will see 200,000 Covid cases a day by the end of next month, as the country’s chief medical officer hits back at doomsayers’ fears arguing not one Australian has died or is in ICU from Omicron.
The PM said ‘real caution’ needed to be exercised when considering the Doherty Institute’s new modelling about the spread of the virus during a live interview on the Today Show on Wednesday.
Doherty’s modelling claims that without bringing back low-to-medium restrictions being mandated such as masks and density limits, Australia could face millions of Covid cases by the end of January or early February, and up to 4,000 hospitalisations a day.
Mr Morrison said the modelling assumed the Omicron strain is as serious as Delta and didn’t take into consideration the revamped booster program or people taking ‘sensible behavioural responses in what they’re doing’.
‘So I wouldn’t want to alarm people over that report. That is not what we are actually expecting to happen,’ he said, adding the grim predictions were ‘highly unlikely’.
Scott Morrison has confidently dismissed predictions Australia will see 200,000 daily cases as Australia’s chief medical officer hits back at doomsdayers’ fears
‘There is a range of scenarios but I would say this – of course the number of Omicron cases will increase. It’s highly infectious.
‘But the indications are that it is not as severe and our hospitals, in NSW and Victoria, have been coping extremely well.’
When host Jayne Azzopardi asked Mr Morrison if he would like to see mask mandates enforced across the country, especially in NSW, he said it was up to state leaders.
‘Well, they will be decisions that they take in each of their states and territories. I have spoken to the NSW Premier quite regularly because that is where we’ve seen the biggest surge in cases,’ he replied.
‘You should be wearing them anyway. You don’t have to wait to be told in this country and this is the point I was making yesterday.’
The prime minister encouraged people to practice Covid-safe behaviours like washing their hands, maintaining appropriate distance and meeting outdoors.
‘That is just commonsense. And I trust the commonsense of Australians,’ he said.
Mr Morrison (pictured) said the decision would be up to state leaders to enforce mask mandates in their states adding Australians should be ‘wearing them anyway’
Australia’s chief medical officer has also hit back at the report in a remarkable late night update.
Professor Paul Kelly said the new Omicron variant after the modelling’s headline number – and claims there could be 4,000 cases in hospital a day – was leaked late on Tuesday.
The grim prediction prompted Professor Kelly to address ‘selective and misleading media reporting about ongoing modelling’ and believes the predicted hospitalisation estimations are unlikely.
‘Evidence about the characteristics of Omicron is still emerging but early trends seen both internationally and within Australia suggest that it is more transmissible,’ he said.
‘However, early indications around hospitalisation, ICU admission and death show that Omicron could be far less than Delta and other variants.
Mr Morrison said Australians shouldn’t be alarmed over the report and said predictions of 200,000 Covid cases a day were ‘highly unlikely’ (pictured, a woman is vaccinated in Victoria)
Professor Paul Kelly (pictured) has responded to grim predictions based on Doherty Institute modelling and said hospitalisation and ICU admission estimates were unlikely
‘Importantly, after almost four weeks of Omicron in Australia there are currently no confirmed Omicron cases in ICU and no deaths confirmed to date.’
‘Omicron is here in Australia, it will be an unwanted guest with us for Christmas, but we can and must do what we can to reduce its impact on each of us and our loved ones.’
While Professor Kelly recognised modelling is an important tool in government decision-making, it’s one of a range of tools and can’t be viewed in isolation.
‘A preliminary scenario, of many being considered to help inform decision making, presents one of the worst case of all potential scenarios including assumptions that the Omicron variant is as severe as the Delta variant, an absence of hospital surge capacity, a highly limited booster program, no change to baseline public health and social measures and an absence of spontaneous behaviour change in the face of rising case numbers,’ he added.
‘None of these five assumptions represent the likely state of events, let alone all of them together, therefore presenting that scenario as the likely scenario that will occur is highly misleading.’
‘I don’t know where they’ve come up with this modelling but it’s not based on any real world data,’ Prof. Kelly told Daily Mail Australia on Tuesday night (pictured, a Covid-19 testing clinic)
He says public health and social measures will have an impact on slowing the spread of the Omicron variant.
‘For now, there are some easy steps we can take as individuals to help our community, including practicing good hand hygiene and wearing a mask when indoors,’ Professor Kelly said,.
‘It protects you and it protects the people around you. I am already putting my mask on wherever I go. It’s a simple defence that can help us all.’
His comments comes after Australian National University professor Peter Collignon slammed the grim prediction as ‘completely unbelievable’.
‘I don’t know where they’ve come up with this modelling but it’s not based on any real world data,’ he told Daily Mail Australia on Tuesday night.
Professor Kelly said public health and social measures will have an impact on slowing the spread of the Omicron variant (pictured, a woman is tested for Covid in Bondi on Tuesday)
‘They are assumptions that do not correlate to anything we’ve seen before in summer in any other country.
‘If there were 200,000 cases a day, the whole of Australia would be infected in just a few months. That hasn’t happened anywhere in the world.’
‘They’ve got twice the population of us and far less vaccination. So I just find that figure unbelievable and not realistic.
‘We haven’t seen this in South Africa or anywhere else in the world.’
Professor Collignon also explained why the potential reintroduction of mask mandates may not have much of an impact on containing the spread.
‘Face masks might decrease your risks by about 10 per cent but over the medium to long term it won’t really make a lot of difference, particularly in summer when people won’t use them properly. That’s the reality of it,’ he said.
‘I find their figure of 200,000 unbelievable, therefore I find their assumptions about masks probably unbelievable too.’
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