Groundbreaking Covid-19 modelling commissioned by National Cabinet and carried out by the prestigious Doherty Institute was supposed to give Australia a clear road map of how to live in the aftermath of the pandemic.
But with the country seeing record daily case numbers, lockdowns in several states and territories and the Delta variant showing no signs of abetting, fierce debate has erupted between Scott Morrison and states leaders.
The Prime Minister has backed NSW to end lockdown once 70-80 per cent of the NSW population is vaccinated as the modelling suggests, regardless of case numbers.
But various other states have slammed the idea claiming it would be irresponsible to reopen with infections rates surging and opting to maintain border closures and lockdowns if required.
Their concerns centre around the potential for skyrocketing case numbers, the risk to children and teenagers who remain largely ineligible to get vaccinated, as well as the need for an immunity lag time buffer – with at least two weeks needed after getting the shot to give significant protection from the virus.
But according to the Prime Minister and the newly-revised report from the Doherty Institute, immunity lag time is already priced into the dat and soaring case numbers will make little difference, nor will the risk to unvaccinated children and teens.
Nation divided over Doherty modelling: Pictured: Melbourne’s CBD is seen from the banks of Williamstown as people take a walk on Sunday
The Prime Minister has backed NSW to end lockdown once 70-80 per cent of the NSW population is vaccinated as the modelling suggests, regardless of case numbers. Pictured: Dubbo Mass Vaccination centre
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has repeatedly implied lockdown will end somewhere between 70 and 80 per cent vaccination, even as the outbreak continues to spiral.
The new modelling shows that if case numbers are still in the 100s, with an 80 per cent vaccinated population, there is little change to the epidemic curve.
The state hit yet another record of 830 cases on Sunday, a day after diagnosing the most cases in a single day anywhere in Australia on Saturday.
Other state premiers are resistant to NSW ending the lockdown with so many daily cases, and insisting about 30, or at least less than 100, should be required.
Australia’s chief medical officer Paul Kelly said eliminating Covid is not a ‘sustainable long-term strategy’.
‘The only places in the world that have not seen any COVID at all… would be some of the Pacific Island countries and that’s because they’ve essentially been cut off from the rest of the world for the last 18 months,’ he said on Sunday
‘Even in New Zealand, which I would say would be the poster jurisdiction for elimination, they have very clearly and recently stated that remains their aim, [they] are now coping with an outbreak in Auckland and beyond.
‘Western Australia have done extremely well now, relying on the very strong border controls, both external to the rest of the world and to the rest of Australia.
‘The matter of how WA see themselves working through the pandemic over time is really a matter for them but I will say that the whole of National Cabinet, including the West Australian Premier, did sign up to the plan only a couple of weeks ago.’
He also that conceded that Victoria, as well as NSW, may never return to zero cases.
‘The Delta virus is quite clearly different to the original that we had,’ Professor Kelly says.
‘We were very successful in those approaches to lockdown, including New South Wales up to the current rate, with a less stringent approach.
‘Delta is more infectious, which is quite clearly the case, virtually 100 per cent of people in a household when there is a case will become infected.’
NSW is another step closer to freedom, despite soaring Covid numbers. Pictured are Sydneysiders exercising as the state recorded a record 830 new cases
Pictured: Hundreds of people wait in line for their Covid-19 vaccine at the South Western Sydney vaccination centre at Macquarie Fields
The Doherty Institute has advised that lifting lockdowns with hundreds of daily cases at 70 per cent vaccination wouldn’t make a drastic change to epidemiological modelling, according to reports.
They’ve also suggested that with high vaccination rates there would be minimal impact on children and teens, however steps are being made to roll out the jab to children aged over 12.
Number-crunchers at the institute also say there is no need to wait for the immunity lag time of three weeks to kick in, as Labor leader Anthony Albanese has suggested.
The report claims that because there would be such a large pipeline of the community already fully vaccinated, it would leave just a miniscule percentage needing the three-week buffer.
National Cabinet, in July had agreed to set second dose thresholds of 70 and 80 per cent to significantly reduce the prospect of lockdowns.
A spokesman for Mr Morrison said national cabinet had asked the Doherty Institute to model a number of reopening scenarios.
‘However, when we reach the 70 per cent and 80 per cent thresholds the findings are clear that we can move forward with our reopening plan regardless of case numbers because there will be far less serious illness for our health system to manage,’ he said.
The updated modelling will be presented to National Cabinet this week.
Australia ramped up its vaccination efforts to the point where more than 1.7 million doses were administered in the past week, including a record 310,524 jabs delivered on Friday.
About 29.6 per cent of Australians over-16s are now fully vaccinated, while 51.8 per cent have received a first dose.
NSW premier has reiterated assurances life will be much different once the state reaches the magic milestone of 70-80 per cent vaccination. Pictured are Sydneysiders soaking up the winter sunshine at Bondi
Pictured: Business continues at a grocery store in Sydney’s Auburn on August 22, as the city battles its ninth week of lockdown
NSW is at more than 30 per cent fully vaccinated with 5.86 million jabs administered since the program began.
Ms Berejiklian urged her locked-down state to focus on vaccination as Sydney and surrounding regions entered their 10th week of stay-at-home orders.
‘While case numbers are going up, the more important figure going up is the vaccination rate,’ she said.
‘The vaccination rate is where we can look forward to living life freely.’
Health minister Brad Hazzard added on Sunday: ‘I am advised that NSW is now amongst the highest, if not the highest, in the world in terms of vaccination rates.’
Ms Berejiklian claimed she’d seen a ‘seismic shift’ and change in attitude in her state counterparts’ approach to living with Covid-19.
‘We accept the Delta is here, we accept getting to zero across the nation, especially once you open up and live freely, will be an impossible task – no other place on the planet has done it,’ she said.
The Prime Minister looks forward to reopening up the county once 80 per cent of Australia’s are vaccinated. Pictured is a pop up vaccination clinic at Australian Sikh Association in Sydney
However, several state leaders disagree on lifting lockdowns and reopening borders while NSW cases remain in their hundreds.
They include Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, whose state recorded 65 new cases on Sunday.
‘If you don’t actively suppress this virus then, when you do open up, we will have scenes the likes of which none of us have ever experienced in our hospitals,’ Mr Andrews said.
‘That is why [on Friday at national cabinet], far from a sense of easing or a sense of moving away from the plan, there was an agreement, and quite some discussion about the need to update the Doherty modelling because the Doherty modelling is not predicated on 10, 12, 15, 20,000 active cases in any state or across our nation.
‘It is, in fact, predicated on very small numbers of cases.’
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk agreed.
‘There is a huge outbreak in NSW and you can’t just say when we get to 70 or 80 per cent the number of cases doesn’t matter. It does. The comments of the NSW Premier and PM are not reflected in Doherty,’ her spokesman told the Sun Herald.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison says it’s ‘inevitable’ that case numbers will likely rise once Australia begins to open up
However, Mr Morrison reiterated that Australia could start claiming back what Covid has taken away once it hits 70 and 80 per cent vaccination targets.
‘You can’t live with lockdowns forever and at some point you need to make that gear change and that is done at 70 per cent because that’s where we are advised from the medical science that you can make that gear change,’ he told ABC’s Insiders on Sunday.
‘Once you do that, then you can move into focusing on the public health issues of hospitalisation and serious illness.
‘Case numbers are not the whole story but right now, of course, we need to make the lockdowns effective, we need to suppress the virus as best we can, and we need for people to isolate, stay at home, get tested and of course, go and get vaccinated.’
But Mr Morrison said it was ‘inevitable’ that case numbers will likely rise once Australia begins to open up.
‘And when we do so, we must not be intimidated by the case numbers that will inevitably increase,’ Mr Morrison wrote in a Sunday Telegraph opinion piece.
‘We will be able to better handle them then, because of all the improvements we have made to protect people from serious illness and fatality.
‘Rising cases need not impact our plan to reopen, and reopen as soon we can.’
Sydney entered its tenth week of lockdown on Sunday as daily case numbers remain in their hundreds. Pictured is a deserted Sydney CBD on Saturday