‘The ice-picks are being sharpened,’ a Shadow Minister tells me. ‘The moderates aren’t the ones who are going to move against Jeremy. It’s going to be the Corbynites themselves.’
The ice-pick analogy is a grim reference to the fate that befell Leon Trotsky, assassinated on the orders of his former comrade Joseph Stalin. And it’s a reminder that, within the factional politics of the ultra-Left, it is never your enemies who pose the greatest threat, but your friends.
Jeremy Corbyn’s friends have finally run out of patience. On Thursday, a YouGov poll showed Labour in fourth place, behind the Conservatives, the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems. The vote share – a pitiful 18 per cent – was the lowest the party has ever recorded.
John McDonnell has begun a pincer movement against Corbyn’s Brexit stance and his two most senior aides – Karie Murphy and Seumas Milne (pictured)
Things became so desperate that Corbyn’s communications team began actively stoking a row over civil servants briefing that he was too frail to be Prime Minister in an attempt to generate sympathy and throw a smokescreen around the deteriorating political position. ‘They’ve been in freefall,’ a Shadow Minister reports.
But even before the events of the past week, it was clear that Corbyn’s previously loyal lieutenants were finally turning against him. Diane Abbott, who has privately been urging him to shift his stance on Brexit, has opted to go public with her concerns.
‘Like you I have supported Labour’s Brexit strategy so far,’ she tweeted to one of her followers. ‘But like you I am beginning to worry.’
At the same time, John McDonnell has begun a pincer movement against Corbyn’s Brexit stance and his two most senior aides – Karie Murphy and Seumas Milne – who he believes are undermining Labour’s operation.
‘John went to see Jeremy to tell him Seumas and Karie have to go,’ a Shadow Cabinet member tells me, ‘but Jeremy just said, ‘No, they’re moving us in the right direction.’
McDonnell has also begun holding regular meetings with Chief Whip Nick Brown, in which both men reportedly share intelligence over mounting anxiety among Labour MPs.
The only two people Corbyn can still rely on are Seumas Milne and Karie Murphy (pictured). When they go, he will be alone
In addition, McDonnell has boxed in Corbyn by demanding a specific deadline for ending the ambiguity on whether or not to back a second referendum.
‘At Shadow Cabinet, Jeremy was trying to argue we could take the summer to finalise our position,’ a Shadow Minister reports. ‘But John was adamant we needed to have it resolved by July 8 at the latest. He was the person who demanded that date.’
Other Shadow Cabinet members who have been reluctant to speak out against Corbyn are now preparing to voice their own concerns – particularly around Brexit and Labour’s on-going anti-Semitism crisis.
But it is the removal of Murphy and Milne that will represent the first major phase of Operation Ice-Pick. Murphy is currently on leave dealing with a family illness. But such is the toxicity of Labour politics that there is active briefing she may not return to her role. ‘If Karie goes, that’s it,’ one MP says. ‘Seumas and her are so close that if either of them resigned, the other would probably go too.’
Some Shadow Ministers believe the trigger could well be this week’s special edition of Panorama, which is expected to produce further revelations about the scale of anti-Semitism within Labour, and the failure of Corbyn’s inner circle to confront it. There has been some speculation Corbyn could announce a shift of Brexit policy at the same time as the broadcast to minimise Panorama’s impact.
BUT a Shadow Cabinet member believes Corbyn is now resigned to cutting Milne and Murphy loose. ‘I think he knows he’s going to have to let them go. He’ll leave it to McDonnell to do the dirty work. Jeremy won’t actively order them out, but he won’t fight for them any more.’
Some Corbyn supporters hope that with Murphy and Milne gone, his position could be stabilised. But the consensus among his former allies is that for the Corbynite project to be saved, Corbyn himself must now be sacrificed.
Ironically, one of the things that has shifted their perspective is his success. The 2017 Election result completely transformed expectations among many of his old comrades about what Corbynism could achieve.
As one MP explains: ‘Before the Election, their objective was just to change the Labour Party. But now they think they have a genuine chance of power. This is their one opportunity to get a Red Box and a ministerial car. And they’re not going to let anyone get in the way of that.’
Another major factor is Brexit. Two years ago, Corbyn was the hero of Glastonbury. This year he didn’t even dare put in an appearance. And that’s because his vacillation on whether or not to back a second referendum has become the ‘wedge issue’ his opponents always hoped it would be.
It has driven him apart from his liberal metropolitan base, and his allies – especially those who like Abbott represent major Remain constituencies – are no longer willing or able to bridge the chasm.
But the ultimate impetus behind Operation Ice-Pick is something Corbyn’s opponents on the moderate wing of his party would recognise and empathise with. Sheer exhaustion.
Corbyn’s former allies are wrung out. They have been politically – and, in a number of cases, emotionally and physically – worn down by the constant demands of defending the indefensible.
McDonnell in particular is said to be at his wits’ end over Corbyn’s failure to get to grips with the anti-Semitism crisis, the daily battles with the leader’s inner circle, and the unnecessary damage he believes is being done to Labour’s chances of victory at the next Election. Some Labour MPs believe that an early Election is actually the only thing that could save Corbyn. ‘If Boris goes for a snap Election, then there won’t be time to remove Corbyn,’ one tells me. ‘But if Boris plays it long, then I think it’s over. I don’t think a shift to a Remain position is going to save him. No one’s going to believe Jeremy Corbyn’s the guy to save us from Brexit.’
The ice-picks are being sharpened. The only two people Corbyn can still rely on are Seumas Milne and Karie Murphy. When they go, he will be alone.
Surging Boris eyes a ’65 landslide’
Boris Johnson is eyeing 65 per cent of the vote in the Tory leadership contest
As voting starts in the Tory leadership election, the official line from Team Boris is that they are taking nothing for granted, and the contest is too close to call. But in private they believe their man is on course for a crushing victory.
‘The benchmark we’re setting ourselves is 65 per cent – that’s what we need to get an overwhelming mandate from the members,’ a Johnson ally tells me. ‘And we’re confident we’re on course for it.’
Meanwhile, allies of Jeremy Hunt are trying to put on a brave face. ‘It was complacency that finished off Hillary Clinton, Remain and Theresa May at the last Election,’ one says defiantly.
But another supporter is more realistic. ‘The problem is Boris is just telling the members what they want to hear. And there’s nothing we can do about that. At the moment, people just want to be lied to.’
Both camps believe a majority of the ballots will have been returned by next weekend. The fat lady is gargling.